Betfair trading strategies : Lay Trading High Price UK Horses

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aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:30 pm

For the last week I have been Laying High Price (30+) UK Horses and then Trading out before the Race Is Off --- Although A Few Times I Have Risked In-Play Trade Outs With Have Worked For Now But Not Really Sustainable For A Steady Profit

Good results as per snapshots shown on @slowandsteadyp1 on Twitter

However, I am after some thoughts from much wiser than me forum members on how to tweak this process.

Should I avoid short 5-7f races, so that if I get stuck then longer races allow better in-play trade outs?
Should I avoid in-play trade outs totally and accept losses sometimes?
Should I lower or higher the odds to select the horses I trade?
I tend to get on a race 5 to 10 minutes before the off but would longer before be wiser or is that more risky?

All thoughts welcomed, as I am on a roll but it's not a stable long term system - yet !!!

User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 1598
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:43 pm

aidenrn810 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:30 pm
For the last week I have been Laying High Price (30+) UK Horses and then Trading out before the Race Is Off --- Although A Few Times I Have Risked In-Play Trade Outs With Have Worked For Now But Not Really Sustainable For A Steady Profit

Good results as per snapshots shown on @slowandsteadyp1 on Twitter

However, I am after some thoughts from much wiser than me forum members on how to tweak this process.

Should I avoid short 5-7f races, so that if I get stuck then longer races allow better in-play trade outs?
Should I avoid in-play trade outs totally and accept losses sometimes?
Should I lower or higher the odds to select the horses I trade?
I tend to get on a race 5 to 10 minutes before the off but would longer before be wiser or is that more risky?

All thoughts welcomed, as I am on a roll but it's not a stable long term system - yet !!!
For any sprint distance, if the selection has a poor draw, then risk/reward should balance out.

Connected to the first Q, is your strategy IP or Pre-race? If the former try and manage it IP. If it's Pre-Race, be willing to red-trade.

Higher or Lower prices are a personal choice depending on how you make your selection. A dodgy Fav will likely win more often than a dodgy outsider.

The bulk of liquidity enters a race once a previous one has started/finished. At festivals like Cheltenham/Aintree/Ascot/Goodwood etc, 30 mins can be fine.

Yesterday there was a 146.00 winner that hit a High or 200.00. (that might not of been the IP price). It was a poor Class6 AWR Maiden, so the race quality could also be a consideration for sure.

I also find horses that need headgear can have a quirk about them, compared to those that don't need it.

spreadbetting
Posts: 2953
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:52 pm

aidenrn810 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:30 pm


Should I avoid short 5-7f races, so that if I get stuck then longer races allow better in-play trade outs?

In play prices depend on how a horse is running rather than the distance of the race.

aidenrn810 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:30 pm



Should I avoid in-play trade outs totally and accept losses sometimes?

In a word YES, losses are inevitable but it's a lot easier to avoid bad decisions later if thoe losses are small.
aidenrn810 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:30 pm



Should I lower or higher the odds to select the horses I trade?

You shouldn't really be selecting your horses to trade by their odds in the first place. You're falling into a trap of believing that because the odds are higher there's less chance of them winning and therefore happier to let the losing trades run.
aidenrn810 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:30 pm



I tend to get on a race 5 to 10 minutes before the off but would longer before be wiser or is that more risky?
Any trading is going to be a case of risk vs reward. If you haven't a real defined plan as to why you're trading a horse you may swerve more bullets when the market is more liquid closer to the off. The shrewdies will pick off any out line prices as soon as they go up so playing into a book that's forming might not be the best idea if you don't have your own idea of what a value price is.

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Derek27
Posts: 8747
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:04 pm

aidenrn810 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:30 pm
For the last week I have been Laying High Price (30+) UK Horses and then Trading out before the Race Is Off --- Although A Few Times I Have Risked In-Play Trade Outs With Have Worked For Now But Not Really Sustainable For A Steady Profit

Good results as per snapshots shown on @slowandsteadyp1 on Twitter

However, I am after some thoughts from much wiser than me forum members on how to tweak this process.

Should I avoid short 5-7f races, so that if I get stuck then longer races allow better in-play trade outs?
Should I avoid in-play trade outs totally and accept losses sometimes?
Should I lower or higher the odds to select the horses I trade?
I tend to get on a race 5 to 10 minutes before the off but would longer before be wiser or is that more risky?

All thoughts welcomed, as I am on a roll but it's not a stable long term system - yet !!!
Longer races won't necessarily improve your chances of successfully trading out, outsiders are less likely to recover from a poor start. Unless you're using a strategy geared towards in-play trading I'm sure you'd be better off redding up before the off. Allowing trades to go in-play because it's in the red is random betting, plain and simple, and cannot possibly win long term, coupled with the fact that you will eventually have a huge loss.

Whether you go for shorter or longer odds is entirely up to you and depends on you're strategy, or what motivated you to choose the odds/strategy you have. If you're fairly new to trading it might be a good idea to experiment with different angles to your approach. I used to trade >50 when I was a £2 trader. Great fun and you could get some big swings, but as you're aware you won't make much with the amounts taken on offers >200.

I used to trade races hours before the off when I studied horse racing but it's a completely different ball game and involves making judgments based on form (wasn't very successful at it either!). You may find 20-30 minutes before the off the prices are very static and there are few opportunities but there's no harm in giving it a try if you want to.

I'm glad you're on a roll but personally I prefer to look straight through winning and losing streaks and view trading as a long-term investment. All traders and punters, even the ones who lose, will have winning and losing streaks. Good luck.

TipTopTrader
Posts: 452
Joined: Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:29 pm

Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:06 am

The next step after trading out in the run, they don't win I will let it run as bet to collect the whole stake.

You need to think about it in a different way, your selling value by trading out at a higher price,and keeping bad value by going in play with horses trading lower than you layed them.

The art of laying a horse is for it to drift and SP higer than your layed price, its not just picking the right horse, dog, team, etc. You still need to shop carefully when laying, always trying to lay at the bottom of its range.

You also need to be laying to lose a % of your bank, so you don't go broke when a few win.

If you have a 1000 bank you lay to 4% to 5% of your bank, if the horse is 10 dollars you lay it for 4 or 5 dollars, you will need a big bank if you want to start laying longer priced horses.

Good luck with your trading.

aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:28 am

Great responses. To answer a few questions raise and to summarise my next steps.

I have always been looking to start getting involved 5 or 10 mins Pre-Race and then get out as it starts, but have foolishly let those handful of horses that have swung against my intial position to continue and then get out early early in-play. This has mostly worked 80/90% of the time that I've had to wiat until in-play, but as you all say the risk is high that I don't get out quickly enough with a known loss - or risk keep going and going on the illusion that it will come back to help me and then hit a big loss if the horse wins.............this occurred yesterday - see my Twitter feed for yesterday point when I got burnt...........I got carried away and actually it was on a horse that was only at 25's anyway, so already had more chance of winning.........hopefully that all makes sense.

So to tweak things form today :

- I will red out at the start of in-play or at worst 10 seconds in and take my medicine and a loss where necessary.
- I will stick with only getting involved 5 or 10 minutes before the race to have good liquidity.
- I will only stick to 40's/50's and above and not get tempted to go for lower initial horses.

I do understand your points about looking for value horse and not being blind to go for the horse just because of the high odds, but for now I will continue and ensure that by getting out of the trade with a loss if necessary that this helps for now --- I may well come back to this later. My knowledge of horses is lower than for other sports. Could anyone recommend any good HORSE LAY Prediction contacts/sites?

I totally agree with the win or loss streak comments, which is what I always expected that I would get caught out at some point --- yesterday was the first time for a week, but I knew it was coming and a risk but got a bit carried away with letting it run and run in-play.

My learning curve on this strategy continues.

In parallel I am running Football Correct Score Lays : 1 out of 1 from last night --- on that sport I haev much more knowledge, but again I need to not get over-confident.

Thanks all

TipTopTrader
Posts: 452
Joined: Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:29 pm

Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:30 am

What ever price you lay the horse, the reason for going in play can't be because its a losing trade pre race even for just 10 seconds.

You can't escape a loss, no matter what price the horse. The same thing will happen just at a bigger price, instead of 25 to 1 amount of pain it will be 50 to 1.

Good luck with your trading.

aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:38 pm

My thought process for going in-play for say 10 seconds is that I might get an initial match closer to where I want to trade out --- but yes you are right that it can easily slip further away even in the 10 seconds and leave me at a larger loss then striking out at off-time. I would still now though take and loss and not keep going and going....

I'll ponder some more before today's racing starts.

Other thoughts appreciated.

User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 8747
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:22 pm

aidenrn810 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:28 am
Great responses. To answer a few questions raise and to summarise my next steps.

I have always been looking to start getting involved 5 or 10 mins Pre-Race and then get out as it starts, but have foolishly let those handful of horses that have swung against my intial position to continue and then get out early early in-play. This has mostly worked 80/90% of the time that I've had to wiat until in-play, but as you all say the risk is high that I don't get out quickly enough with a known loss - or risk keep going and going on the illusion that it will come back to help me and then hit a big loss if the horse wins.............this occurred yesterday - see my Twitter feed for yesterday point when I got burnt...........I got carried away and actually it was on a horse that was only at 25's anyway, so already had more chance of winning.........hopefully that all makes sense.

So to tweak things form today :

- I will red out at the start of in-play or at worst 10 seconds in and take my medicine and a loss where necessary.
- I will stick with only getting involved 5 or 10 minutes before the race to have good liquidity.
- I will only stick to 40's/50's and above and not get tempted to go for lower initial horses.

I do understand your points about looking for value horse and not being blind to go for the horse just because of the high odds, but for now I will continue and ensure that by getting out of the trade with a loss if necessary that this helps for now --- I may well come back to this later. My knowledge of horses is lower than for other sports. Could anyone recommend any good HORSE LAY Prediction contacts/sites?

I totally agree with the win or loss streak comments, which is what I always expected that I would get caught out at some point --- yesterday was the first time for a week, but I knew it was coming and a risk but got a bit carried away with letting it run and run in-play.

My learning curve on this strategy continues.

In parallel I am running Football Correct Score Lays : 1 out of 1 from last night --- on that sport I haev much more knowledge, but again I need to not get over-confident.

Thanks all
Why are you focused on horses above 50 and why do you need a good lay prediction site, and why are you only interested in laying?

I can advise you that any horse above 50 is highly likely to lose, but more importantly, trading is all about laying horses that drift or backing horses that steam. Whether they win or lose is irrelevant if you intend to trade out. You may find more opportunities if you broaden your scope and consider horses at a shorter price and perhaps backing as well as laying.

TipTopTrader
Posts: 452
Joined: Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:29 pm

Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:22 pm

aidenrn810 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:38 pm
My thought process for going in-play for say 10 seconds is that I might get an initial match closer to where I want to trade out --- but yes you are right that it can easily slip further away even in the 10 seconds and leave me at a larger loss then striking out at off-time. I would still now though take and loss and not keep going and going....

I'll ponder some more before today's racing starts.

Other thoughts appreciated.
What can happen is that you will not exit a losing trade when you see it go against you, thinking oh I will trade out in the run, having way more trades going in play resulting in way higher risk on a big bad loss.

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