Betfair trading strategies : Newbies Trading in the Dark

Interested in learning to trade on Betfair. Check out this section for advice, knowledge and discussion on trading strategies.
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herbie
Posts: 342
Joined: Mon May 11, 2009 8:56 pm

Sun Mar 02, 2014 12:54 pm

I feel it is about us as individuals.... Its about taking the loss and taking the profit...its about me.. exposing the self-righteous person that I am to the world and accepting not being right in the short term sometimes....
Every time I have to take a loss or take my profit, I have to face me..deal with who I am and who I have been.

Personally, I have never learnt so much about one thing in my entire life than I have about this... I have studied the turning points of the markets, the price action,volume patterns, correlated runners movement, vwap,patterns and more patterns..etc.etc.etc..blah..blah.. not saying i know shit.

Ive built bots, data crunchers...I hooked befair up to multicharts and backtested nearly two years of data to death, Ive been on Eulers course twice. Ive watched Mugs actually spoon feed me through his videos.. but can i do this?
Yes..I can with small stakes, but the moment I raise my stakes, I have to deal with me..
Trading has become a life challenge to show myself I am capable.. I slowly uncover my demons and tell them to go...its OK not to be right all of the time..that's what Im slowly teaching myself.

Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:07 pm

herbie wrote:Ive been on Eulers course twice.
Why did you go on the course twice, out of interest?

Were different topics going to be covered the second time?
herbie wrote: Trading has become a life challenge to show myself I am capable.. I slowly uncover my demons and tell them to go...its OK not to be right all of the time..that's what Im slowly teaching myself.
Your demons won't go away because you tell them to - but you can choose how you manage them.

Jeff

AmazingMisterX
Posts: 44
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2013 11:35 am

Sun Mar 02, 2014 1:35 pm

I went on Peter's course in January last year when I first got into trading and have since thought about going on it again. Just because I think I may understand it a bit more now that I have experience. I don't think I will but the thought has crossed my mind.

Zenyatta
Posts: 1058
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Sat May 03, 2014 7:41 am

I used to swear that short term trading was a waste of time and was a zero sum game.


Short-term trading is a zero-sum game or worse. Over short time-frames, no new wealth is coming into existence. So for someone to win, someone else has to lose. In fact its even worse than that, because commissions are taken out. So short-term trading is a negative sum game. And indeed, 95% of all short-term traders lose money.
But I'd happily apologise for all the rhetoric I chucked at traders who managed something I didn't think was possible.

Well obviously a rare few people can make money out of it (the 5% of winning traders).

But clearly the shorter the time frame, the harder trading gets. I can clearly see this in my own efforts - the shorter the time-frames I try to trade over, the worse and worse it gets for me.

marko236
Posts: 718
Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:54 am

Sun May 04, 2014 1:37 pm

Agree, find it hard aswell near starting time, do football myself and when it gets to the 1 hour mark before start the good traders seem to get going from there.

katie123
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:13 am

Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:50 am

I have perused this thread through its 1500 posts and find it astonishing that nowhere in its history is there any fundamental advice for folk who are new to trading. Drawn here via the lure of riches and the postings of other successful Stock Trading Secrets with their 6 figure P/L’s, many newbie traders do not realise that they are walking into a lions den…and what is worse, they don’t even realise that they need to arm themselves for the battle ahead. Buying a subscription to BA does not make one a “trader” and the whole idea that untrained and unprepared trading virgins can immediately compete in the highly honed and sophisticated environment of the Betfair marketplace is simply false advertising and disingenuous advice. Having spent years trading in the stock markets, getting used to trading in Betfair has required another significant quantum leap in my knowledge and learning. It has not been easy.

What I have learnt after quite a long time trading is that until any “would be” trader addresses the following 6 issues, he is doomed to failure:

1. You must have an “edge”
2. You must fully understand simple trading patterns and the mathematics of trading
3. You must develop a trading plan and execute it flawlessly
4. You must lose before you can learn how to win
5. You must obliterate all character weaknesses that affect your trading
6. You must work harder than you imagine to achieve success

An Edge

Do not be fooled by the seeming ease by which several well-known and successful traders ply their trade. It may look like they are trading randomly whenever you read their blogs or even watch their videos, but in reality, they are following, very precisely, well tested and statistically proven entry and exit points. Whether they choose to lay or back at a particular juncture is not a random choice but is based on the simple fact that that particular “trade” will have a statistical higher probability of success than failure. If it were not so, then they would indeed be “net losers”.

Before you can become a “net winner”, you must identify a circumstance or circumstances, by whatever means and using all the data available, where your chances of a successful trade will result in a “better than evens” return. Whether you choose scalping or swing trading, this is a fundamental requirement for success. Tossing a coin to decide whether to back or lay first in a single scalp trade will result in a net loss (after tax). Even a 7yo knows that truth.

No-one, I repeat no-one who is a successful trader will be imparting their “edge” on these pages, so this is a task that requires a lot of personal research, much testing and the chosen methodology must define simple executable entry and exit points. Of course there are many suggestions of where to look for an “edge”, the most common (but not necessarily the best) is the behaviour of the Weight of Money (WOM) favoured by many traders. Others include moving averages or more sophisticated MACD or Candlestick analysis, Elliott wave patterns or Relative Strength Indicators. However you reach your “edge”, its potential strength and its frequency of occurrence is fundamental to your trading future; quite simply, “guessing” is not an option.

Do you really believe that some people “guess” better than others on a consistent and long-term basis? What those “apparent” guessers are actually doing is tuning into the wave patterns that drive the markets by recognising and acting upon repetitive patterns that occur in a pre-race market. There is nothing mystical about how these people trade, they do have trading plan that supports their chosen advantage or “edge” and although their chosen methodology is less formal than others, some do succeed for considerable periods.

Whatever edge you choose, it is vitally important that your Trading Plan supports it fully and comprehensibly.

I will post, very soon, what I have learnt about Issue 2 above.
thanks a lot..I agree with your post.Trading is not an easy game which we think ,we always want that we get more profit from less money but it is not easy task that we get it.

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harsh
Posts: 127
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 1:26 am

Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:04 am

:lol:
Mug wrote:
Wed Jun 30, 2010 8:03 am
Nice to see somebody posting up lots of stuff but far too complicted I think. You can back at the lay price and lay at the back price and you want to do it at the least possible risk. That's all there is to it.

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