Newbies Trading in the Dark

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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LinusP
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scalpy123 wrote: But I still think that the Bet Angel team could be more helpful.We are using their software to get that "edge".
When the odds are moving down on a favourite quickly and if Bet Angel can be automated to place a BACK bet and then the lay bet one tick less (faster than we can do manually)surely it is not too much to ask for an example of this automation.
You have to be here to wind us all up.
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mugsgame
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I agree about the BA team being more helpful.
Got a new socket set from Halfords last week. The bastards wouldn't come over and fix my car. Well out of order
Iron
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scalpy123 wrote:I like your post as it does show what you you need to consider when trading.
Hi Max

James's posts are thorough and helpful, and well worth studying.

One of the things I like about James is that he's not afraid to challenge widely held beliefs (such as the view that a tightening over-round is significant, or that WOM has predictive powers). I don't always agree with him, but it's interesting and potentially useful to be given an alternative perspective to the mainstream view.
scalpy123 wrote:I have a good knowledge of horse racing and only select certain "races" to trade.
But I still think that the Bet Angel team could be more helpful.
You have to bear in mind that trading is a zero sum game in which Peter is himself a participant, so he is limited in terms of how much knowledge he can give away without damaging his own edge. Also, he give precise 'when this happens, press this button' type instructions, the edge would disappear in an instant, and he'd be doing nobody any favours...

Jeff
Iron
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I'm not sure 'natural instinct' has anything to do with it.

An analogy. Mugs lost six stone over six months. I would guess 90% of people who resolved to lose weight at the New Year have already abandoned their diets (I'm about to restart mine! :lol: ). Similarly, with trading, making good trades is only half the battle.

Avoiding doing stupid stuff, especially when you're feeling sore at the market or at a loose end, is not easy. So basically, I would say that Mugs succeeds at trading for the same reason that he succeeded at dieting - because he is capable of sticking to a regime that involves doing boring stuff consistently well, in spite of inevitable setbacks.

Jeff
Online Trader wrote: I truly believe that there are only a very select few that can trade at the levels that these guys do and that all the coaching/training in the world may never get you to that level unless you have that "natural instinct".
Online Trader
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Here what you are saying Jeff, but there has to be some "natural talent" involved and I maintain that only a few will EVER get to the levels of Mugs and Peter, no matter how hard they "stick to a regime that involves doing boring stuff consistently well, in spite of inevitable setbacks"
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

I thought I'd chip in with a couple of thoughts.

When I first tried short term trading on financials I was completely and utterly useless. That's half the reason I ended up as a true investor than trader in financials. But trading short term on Betfair taught me the key elements of general short term trading. So I think it is perfectly possible to undergo a big shift in mindset and application. I used to swear that short term trading was a waste of time and was a zero sum game. But I'd happily apologise for all the rhetoric I chucked at traders who managed something I didn't think was possible.

Once you understand the trading process and mindset I think it's possible to use it as a general framework. But you have to learn it and it goes against a lot of instinct. But if I can do it from a standpoint of utter intransigence then I hold out hope for everybody.

It is possible to give people clear and specific commands to trade a net positive system. But curiously even that isn't good enough for people to execute it. People can see what to do and how to do, but it's the doing it that seems to be the problem. So there is an element of training and skill to execute.

I've got some great audio of me teaching somebody where you hear my criticising them for following my instructions but failing to do anything about it. I'll see if I can upload it at some point.
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mugsgame
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Think you're right Jeff. Plus having my mouth stitched up helped a lot!

Seriously though. I keep saying that the difference between success and failure in this game is very small details.
The other thing of course is practice. I got in at the start pretty much, got a bit lucky and developed my skill set. If you spend pretty much every day watching numbers spinning over on ladders and spreadsheets. Plus watching the behaviour the markets and what influences the way they change. How can you fail to understand them?

I would estimate upto now I have watched something like 100,000 horse races and associated markets. If that don't grasp it after that sort of exposure then you in trouble.
Iron
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Why must there be?

Is it not simply possible that the 1% who apply themselves best happen to end up in the top 1% when it comes to profits?

Also, there may be an element of self-fulfilling prophesy going on. If you don't think you're capable of being as good as Mugs, chances are that you won't ever be...

Jeff
Online Trader wrote:Here what you are saying Jeff, but there has to be some "natural talent" involved
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Euler
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duplicate
Last edited by Euler on Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Euler
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Worth bringing this thread into this thread: -

viewtopic.php?f=36&t=4153
herbie
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I feel it is about us as individuals.... Its about taking the loss and taking the profit...its about me.. exposing the self-righteous person that I am to the world and accepting not being right in the short term sometimes....
Every time I have to take a loss or take my profit, I have to face me..deal with who I am and who I have been.

Personally, I have never learnt so much about one thing in my entire life than I have about this... I have studied the turning points of the markets, the price action,volume patterns, correlated runners movement, vwap,patterns and more patterns..etc.etc.etc..blah..blah.. not saying i know shit.

Ive built bots, data crunchers...I hooked befair up to multicharts and backtested nearly two years of data to death, Ive been on Eulers course twice. Ive watched Mugs actually spoon feed me through his videos.. but can i do this?
Yes..I can with small stakes, but the moment I raise my stakes, I have to deal with me..
Trading has become a life challenge to show myself I am capable.. I slowly uncover my demons and tell them to go...its OK not to be right all of the time..that's what Im slowly teaching myself.
Iron
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herbie wrote:Ive been on Eulers course twice.
Why did you go on the course twice, out of interest?

Were different topics going to be covered the second time?
herbie wrote: Trading has become a life challenge to show myself I am capable.. I slowly uncover my demons and tell them to go...its OK not to be right all of the time..that's what Im slowly teaching myself.
Your demons won't go away because you tell them to - but you can choose how you manage them.

Jeff
AmazingMisterX
Posts: 44
Joined: Sun Jun 16, 2013 11:35 am

I went on Peter's course in January last year when I first got into trading and have since thought about going on it again. Just because I think I may understand it a bit more now that I have experience. I don't think I will but the thought has crossed my mind.
Zenyatta
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I used to swear that short term trading was a waste of time and was a zero sum game.


Short-term trading is a zero-sum game or worse. Over short time-frames, no new wealth is coming into existence. So for someone to win, someone else has to lose. In fact its even worse than that, because commissions are taken out. So short-term trading is a negative sum game. And indeed, 95% of all short-term traders lose money.
But I'd happily apologise for all the rhetoric I chucked at traders who managed something I didn't think was possible.

Well obviously a rare few people can make money out of it (the 5% of winning traders).

But clearly the shorter the time frame, the harder trading gets. I can clearly see this in my own efforts - the shorter the time-frames I try to trade over, the worse and worse it gets for me.
marko236
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Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:54 am

Agree, find it hard aswell near starting time, do football myself and when it gets to the 1 hour mark before start the good traders seem to get going from there.
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