Newbies Trading in the Dark

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Zenyatta
Posts: 1143
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

The ones I can win on pre-race are the high quality races with low volatility, where clear value selections can be identified.

I've tried trading the mid-week races/winter jumps pre-race, but it's hopeless... those markets are doing the 'Jordan's knickers' routine all the time (high volatility), and it's impossible to know which selections are going to steam in or drift. However, I do have In-Play strategies that can work for these types of races, the winter jumps in particular are especially suited for In-Play IMHO. When I first started it was actually in the UK winter, so In-Play strategies for the jumps was the first thing I was doing.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Then you need to work out how to make the volatility work in your favour. :)

And why do you need to know what the market will do next? Why not just react to whatever the market gives you? If it gives you a nice big movement in your favour, ride it, and if it goes against you, quickly cut your losses.

Other people manage to trade these markets without having some secret code that tells them where the market will be in 30 seconds' time, so why can't you? :)

Jeff
Zenyatta wrote: I've tried trading the mid-week races/winter jumps pre-race, but it's hopeless... those markets are doing the 'Jordan's knickers' routine all the time (high volatility), and it's impossible to know which selections are going to steam in or drift.
Zenyatta
Posts: 1143
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Ferru123 wrote: Other people manage to trade these markets without having some secret code that tells them where the market will be in 30 seconds' time, so why can't you? :)

Jeff
Not my style mate. The top traders recieve pictures and commentary from the track and use this to predict short-term price moves. I'm not saying they have inside info (the pictures and commentaries are public knowledge). But you need the right set-up to do that .

I do kinda know how to make the volatility work in my favour, but the pickings are pretty slim I think. As I said, I think In-Play strategies are the best ones for volatile markets.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Some of them might use it as a tool, but there's more to it than that.

I know two top traders who trade trends.

One trades reversals, and enters when the wom indicates that the market might be about to turn sharply. He has a 1 in 4 strike rate, so you can't really call it prediction.

The other analyses price action to predict where a trend will end up.

Jeff
Zenyatta wrote:The top traders recieve pictures and commentary from the track and use this to predict short-term price moves.
Alpha322
Posts: 843
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:45 pm

Ferru123 wrote:Some of them might use it as a tool, but there's more to it than that.

I know two top traders who trade trends.

One trades reversals, and enters when the wom indicates that the market might be about to turn sharply. He has a 1 in 4 strike rate, so you can't really call it prediction.

The other analyses price action to predict where a trend will end up.

Jeff
Zenyatta wrote:The top traders recieve pictures and commentary from the track and use this to predict short-term price moves.
My style and do great from it. No in play for me to risky, but fair game to those that could endure it
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Hi Alpha

Do you watch pictures at all, or just respond to what you see on Bet Angel?

Jeff
Alpha322 wrote: My style and do great from it. No in play for me to risky, but fair game to those that could endure it
Zenyatta
Posts: 1143
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Ferru123 wrote:
And why do you need to know what the market will do next? Why not just react to whatever the market gives you? If it gives you a nice big movement in your favour, ride it, and if it goes against you, quickly cut your losses.

Jeff
React=lose, anticipate = win ;)

Stop-losses have very limited use if you are a swing trader pre-race. Firstly, the market is too unstable for proper trading except for big races or very close to the off(for one thing, price manipulators are out and about, it's suicide to leave money exposed for any length of time pre-race with stop-losses). For another thing, Peter Le raised the good point a while back that prices pre-race can only move so far, it's very rare that you get a move of bigger than 15-20 ticks, which is comparable to what swing traders are shooting for anyway, so there's often little point in pre-race stop-loss for swing traders IMHO.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Zenyatta wrote: React=lose, anticipate = win ;)
So how can someone with a 1 in 4 strike rate still make a very good profit? :)

Nobody can predict where the market will go. It can turn around or stagnate at literally any moment.
Zenyatta wrote:Stop-losses have very limited use if you are a swing trader pre-race.
Whether you lose automated stoplosses or not, you'll quickly lose your shirt if you don't get out of the market quickly when it moves against you.
Zenyatta wrote:The market is too unstable for proper trading except for big races or very close to the off
Define 'big races' and 'very close to the off'. Are we talking about Grade 1 races & races just a minute before the off?

Or do you think there are other situations in which the market is tradable? :)
Zenyatta wrote:Prices pre-race can only move so far, it's very rare that you get a move of bigger than 15-20 ticks, which is comparable to what swing traders are shooting for anyway, so there's often little point in pre-race stop-loss for swing traders IMHO.
:o :shock:
If any beginners are reading this, PLEASE IGNORE THE ABOVE ADVICE!

Letting the market run 15-20 ticks against you is suicide!

If you don't get out of markets that move against you, chances are they will just carry on moving further and further away from you. And when you do get a profit from a swing, if you don't get out ASAP when the market changes direction, said profit will usually disappear quickly!

Jeff
Zenyatta
Posts: 1143
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Ferru123 wrote:
Letting the market run 15-20 ticks against you is suicide!



Jeff
Not if you are shooting for 15-20 ticks in the other direction. It would balance out in the long term. It depends on how much you are shooting for. If you want to take a profit of a smaller number of ticks, then yes, you need to stop the loss.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

I can't believe that you're seriously advocating having an unlimited downside!

Do you also aim for an unlimited upside, or do you have a profit target?

And how do you handle staking? It's hard to say 'I'm going to risk 2% of my bank on this trade', when you don't know what the maximum number of pips is that you could lose.

If you just bang money into the market and close the trade before the off, long term your bank will be destroyed by commission. There will also be statistically inevitable long losing runs which could reduce your bank to a fraction of its initial amount.

Jeff
Zenyatta wrote: Not if you are shooting for 15-20 ticks in the other direction.
Zenyatta
Posts: 1143
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Ferru123 wrote:I can't believe that you're seriously advocating having an unlimited downside!
Read what I said. Pre-race the maximum downside (in practice) is 15-20 ticks, because the prices rarely move further than that (although occasionally it does happen).

I just dislike the stop-losses because I've been screwed over so many times. Inevitably the price eats through my stop-loss, only to come back again most of the time.. there is nothing more frustrating.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Zenyatta wrote: Read what I said. Pre-race the maximum downside (in practice) is 15-20 ticks, because the prices rarely move further than that (although occasionally it does happen).
You advocated having no stoploss - I don't think I misread you.

Does anyone have any stats on how often markets move more than 15-20 ticks?

You didn't answer my question re. your upside - Do you aim for x ticks, or do you just let the market do its thing and close just before the off?

And how do you manage your staking?
Zenyatta wrote:I just dislike the stop-losses because I've been screwed over so many times. Inevitably the price eats through my stop-loss, only to come back again most of the time.. there is nothing more frustrating.
There is actually - I find it more frustrating for a small loss to become a huge loss!

A trader I know once came up with an analogy. If your car is rolling down a hill, do you apply the brakes or just hope it will stop rolling? If the trend is making me money, my foot will be going nowhere near the break pedal. But if I'm losing money, I'm not going to rely on gravity being kind to me! :lol: And given the way trends self-perpetuate, that is a good metaphor.

Jeff
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Zenyatta wrote: Read what I said. Pre-race the maximum downside (in practice) is 15-20 ticks, because the prices rarely move further than that.
I thought I'd keep an eye out today for such moves, to see how rare they actually are.

I found one in the 14:10.

Jeff
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Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

And another!

Personally, I wouldn't ride a trend like that to the top for a big loss, when my potential upside was a single tick scalp! You'd have to have an eye-wateringly high strike rate to make it pay! :)

Jeff
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Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

You'd have just and so managed to keep your shirt with this unfortunately named horse, but for me it would be a bit too much stress for a single tick gain. :)

Jeff
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