Newbies Trading in the Dark
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enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
well spotted james. that was the Fibonacci series. I have cancelled it from the forum realising the danger for newbies to try to apply the fibonacci series over tradings. I have been using it for while but before making it one of my main trading strategy I have been play with it for months using pennys. During the football season I can`t afford 50% rate or less within 1000s matches per week ( in play or not). The fibonacci series can be interchanged within the tradings feutures without necessarily increasing the stakes. I can create group of matches that all togheter can equal to a margin of profit or loss and consequently act to the next level by changing some factors in the bettings or tradings. Like you said previuosly it is hard work. sometimes people think I am mad but I love it.
Example:
500MO=PT300*1-NT200*1=P85=RFBS * 500MO
500MO=PT250*1-NT250*1=L12.5=IFBS * 50MO*10T
500MO=PT200*1-NT300*1=L110=IFBS * 10MO*50T
Example:
500MO=PT300*1-NT200*1=P85=RFBS * 500MO
500MO=PT250*1-NT250*1=L12.5=IFBS * 50MO*10T
500MO=PT200*1-NT300*1=L110=IFBS * 10MO*50T
Why Traders Lose
This (almost) penultimate post is based on my own experiences as a trainee trader and although some of these will not apply to yourself, at this time, care should be taken to fully understand why we act in the human way we do when operating a mechanical system.
1. I am/was a gambler at heart but I have learnt that pre race trading is not about making a quick kill and success is measured by the slow and steady accumulation and compounding of wealth.
2. I do not follow my plan/my plan isn’t specific enough (triggers are interpretive rather than factual)/my trading plan has no “edge” and is not delivering
3. When I face a losing trade, I deviate from my plan; anything to avoid taking a small loss. Sometimes I double up my losing trades, go in running or back/lay the horse I was trading
4. I sometimes trade when I feel ill, hungover or stressed when my reactions are compromised. I often miss Entry and Exit points during those times.
5. I sometimes make a mistake in following my plan and back instead of lay, fail to obey all the rules of my plan, press the wrong button etc
6. I get distracted or interrupted during trading and miss out on the juiciest trade of the day. That soccer match I was following also lost me money. I am now depressed (see 4 above).
7. I get angry when I make a mistake or when a trade goes against me and my next few trades are affected
8. I overtrade by seeing opportunities that are not in my plan. They mostly lose, I lose concentration and now I am getting stressed (see 4 above).
9. I freeze and fail to trigger my entry point because I’m watching the TV pictures and can see my horse bucking, crapping and neighing (as horses do!)
10. I miss my Entry or Exit point because my computer freezes on another window I was distractedly looking at, my ISP crashes, my electricity is cut etc
11. I practise yoga during a trading session and fall asleep at the wheel
12. I start trading with some of my BA settings wrong because I forgot to reset them after last nights tennis trading session
13. I am late getting to a race and decide to follow just ½ my trading plan. I doesn’t work out so I sweep the result under the carpet and will repeat the same error tomorrow
14. I decide mid way through a trade that this trade is a super bet and I double my stake, only to get wiped out by the mad spiker
15. I attempt to trade in 2 directions during the same session, something that is not in my current trading plan
16. I just traded an All Weather race, despite my plan saying that my edge is not there in such races
17. I had to leave my PC mid trade for water/lunch/a phone call and missed my Exit point. My Stop triggered. I swear and get upset (see 4 above)
18. I never seem to learn from my mistakes and I repeat 9 above the next day
19. I have 4 losses in a row and I begin to have doubts about my trading plan. I make a minor untested adjustment and the next race becomes a loser instead of a winner
20. I get bored because 99% of the time I am either waiting for an Entry or an Exit, so I have a few speculative bets to keep me amused. They lose.
21. I move my stop loss further away because immediately I Entered my trade, the market moved against me. I reckon it will come back. It doesn’t.
22. I have made my daily target but this one last race looks appetising. The trade is a loser and I hate finishing the day on a losing trade. I decide to allow the trade to go in running, the horse wins and I have lost my whole days profit
23. This Irish market is very volatile and I am unsure about my Entry. I go ahead and the trade fails. I try to avoid all volatile markets in future only to later discover that avoiding Irish markets was the right thing to do
24. I lost money last Saturday, so I no longer trade on Saturdays
25. My wife calls out whilst I am in mid trade; it seems she has fallen from the loft and is hanging from her fingertips. Am I a trader or a fireman?
This (almost) penultimate post is based on my own experiences as a trainee trader and although some of these will not apply to yourself, at this time, care should be taken to fully understand why we act in the human way we do when operating a mechanical system.
1. I am/was a gambler at heart but I have learnt that pre race trading is not about making a quick kill and success is measured by the slow and steady accumulation and compounding of wealth.
2. I do not follow my plan/my plan isn’t specific enough (triggers are interpretive rather than factual)/my trading plan has no “edge” and is not delivering
3. When I face a losing trade, I deviate from my plan; anything to avoid taking a small loss. Sometimes I double up my losing trades, go in running or back/lay the horse I was trading
4. I sometimes trade when I feel ill, hungover or stressed when my reactions are compromised. I often miss Entry and Exit points during those times.
5. I sometimes make a mistake in following my plan and back instead of lay, fail to obey all the rules of my plan, press the wrong button etc
6. I get distracted or interrupted during trading and miss out on the juiciest trade of the day. That soccer match I was following also lost me money. I am now depressed (see 4 above).
7. I get angry when I make a mistake or when a trade goes against me and my next few trades are affected
8. I overtrade by seeing opportunities that are not in my plan. They mostly lose, I lose concentration and now I am getting stressed (see 4 above).
9. I freeze and fail to trigger my entry point because I’m watching the TV pictures and can see my horse bucking, crapping and neighing (as horses do!)
10. I miss my Entry or Exit point because my computer freezes on another window I was distractedly looking at, my ISP crashes, my electricity is cut etc
11. I practise yoga during a trading session and fall asleep at the wheel
12. I start trading with some of my BA settings wrong because I forgot to reset them after last nights tennis trading session
13. I am late getting to a race and decide to follow just ½ my trading plan. I doesn’t work out so I sweep the result under the carpet and will repeat the same error tomorrow
14. I decide mid way through a trade that this trade is a super bet and I double my stake, only to get wiped out by the mad spiker
15. I attempt to trade in 2 directions during the same session, something that is not in my current trading plan
16. I just traded an All Weather race, despite my plan saying that my edge is not there in such races
17. I had to leave my PC mid trade for water/lunch/a phone call and missed my Exit point. My Stop triggered. I swear and get upset (see 4 above)
18. I never seem to learn from my mistakes and I repeat 9 above the next day
19. I have 4 losses in a row and I begin to have doubts about my trading plan. I make a minor untested adjustment and the next race becomes a loser instead of a winner
20. I get bored because 99% of the time I am either waiting for an Entry or an Exit, so I have a few speculative bets to keep me amused. They lose.
21. I move my stop loss further away because immediately I Entered my trade, the market moved against me. I reckon it will come back. It doesn’t.
22. I have made my daily target but this one last race looks appetising. The trade is a loser and I hate finishing the day on a losing trade. I decide to allow the trade to go in running, the horse wins and I have lost my whole days profit
23. This Irish market is very volatile and I am unsure about my Entry. I go ahead and the trade fails. I try to avoid all volatile markets in future only to later discover that avoiding Irish markets was the right thing to do
24. I lost money last Saturday, so I no longer trade on Saturdays
25. My wife calls out whilst I am in mid trade; it seems she has fallen from the loft and is hanging from her fingertips. Am I a trader or a fireman?
Hi James,
I agree with the previous poster who said a lot of this is baloney!
While you do make some very good points you also make a lot of irrelevent ones. There is a lot of differences between sports trading and the stock market. Some of the pointers used on the stock market are no good on the sports exchanges and can really confuse a beginner.
I'm of the opinion that either you have just copied and pasted all your points from somewhere or you just dont really have a clue about sports trading, as illustrated more than once by your mention of the dreaded 3 letter word 'TAX'
If there were tax involved in this type of venture nobody would be trading.
I also take exception to the point you made in your very first post about reading through all the posts on this forum and finding no advice for newbie traders, there is plenty. Also I have never seen anybody posting a 6 figure P/L on this forum (On blogs yes but with the exception of one or two they're mostly BS) Also I dont think BA has ever promised to turn anybody into a trader overnight with the promise of riches.
While I do agree with you that there are a lot of cowboys out there offering dodgy systems and advice I can say from personal experience that BA isn't one of them. I dont pretend to make huge sums of money but I do make enough to be comfortable and to be able to trade full time.
At the end of the day if you purchase any trading software and expect to make loadsa' money straight off then you are obviously lacking in the brains dept... If you really read through this forum you will see time after time people offering advice to start off using minimum stakes and get a feel for the market before using larger sums of money.
To all you newbies who seem to agree with James' comments and are studying his tips there is no substitute for experience so rather than trying to extract some info on becoming a better trader just deposit a tenner into your account and trade using minimum stakes until you have a feel for how the market moves, cut down on your mistakes and feel confident enough to use larger sums of money.
Finally James, have you considered starting up your own blog to post all your thoughts? Maybe there you'll find the adoration you seek.
Yours,
A Satisfied Trader
I agree with the previous poster who said a lot of this is baloney!
While you do make some very good points you also make a lot of irrelevent ones. There is a lot of differences between sports trading and the stock market. Some of the pointers used on the stock market are no good on the sports exchanges and can really confuse a beginner.
I'm of the opinion that either you have just copied and pasted all your points from somewhere or you just dont really have a clue about sports trading, as illustrated more than once by your mention of the dreaded 3 letter word 'TAX'
If there were tax involved in this type of venture nobody would be trading.
I also take exception to the point you made in your very first post about reading through all the posts on this forum and finding no advice for newbie traders, there is plenty. Also I have never seen anybody posting a 6 figure P/L on this forum (On blogs yes but with the exception of one or two they're mostly BS) Also I dont think BA has ever promised to turn anybody into a trader overnight with the promise of riches.
While I do agree with you that there are a lot of cowboys out there offering dodgy systems and advice I can say from personal experience that BA isn't one of them. I dont pretend to make huge sums of money but I do make enough to be comfortable and to be able to trade full time.
At the end of the day if you purchase any trading software and expect to make loadsa' money straight off then you are obviously lacking in the brains dept... If you really read through this forum you will see time after time people offering advice to start off using minimum stakes and get a feel for the market before using larger sums of money.
To all you newbies who seem to agree with James' comments and are studying his tips there is no substitute for experience so rather than trying to extract some info on becoming a better trader just deposit a tenner into your account and trade using minimum stakes until you have a feel for how the market moves, cut down on your mistakes and feel confident enough to use larger sums of money.
Finally James, have you considered starting up your own blog to post all your thoughts? Maybe there you'll find the adoration you seek.
Yours,
A Satisfied Trader
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enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
I dont believe he copied and pasted all his points. He reconized the fibonacci series on the spot. he must have some kind of aknowledge with numbers and mental strenght needed to be a trader. You may not pay TAXes over UK but, UK isn`t the whole world. I pay taxes over sporting tradings and the illegal betfair fee charges. Everything i did not declared in the past I will have to face a settlement in the future when I will be found out guilty by the Italian tax-revenue officers.Relax, I won`t be facing jail, I have to simply, once caught, declare the ammount and accept a payment settlement with 75% discount over the whole sum of money.RafterP wrote:I'm of the opinion that either you have just copied and pasted all your points from somewhere or you just dont really have a clue about sports trading, as illustrated more than once by your mention of the dreaded 3 letter word 'TAX'
If there were tax involved in this type of venture nobody would be trading.
I believe BA is not a dodgy system, for what I know is one of the best around. My only concerns came from the training videos on you tube but I would not appreaciate to be attacked by several lions, so I stop there.
James1st please do carry on, end the final part of your post it very interesting.
I agree with enzabella2009.
The thread is informative and is miles ahead of the 'get a feel for it with small stakes' methodology. It still requires practice but at least you are targeting your practice not bumbling around using trial and error.
It would be interesting to see what would happen if many more competent traders suddenly appeared on the Betfair markets.
Would we face markets like Ascot everyday? Is that a good thing? (Admittedly this may be a poor example as I suspect the majority of money was from punters not traders, but its the volume I'm referring too).
I also suspect a number of trading edges involving price movement by simply having more capital than anyone else would be diluted if there was more traders and more volume.
Hmmm... food for thought
John
The thread is informative and is miles ahead of the 'get a feel for it with small stakes' methodology. It still requires practice but at least you are targeting your practice not bumbling around using trial and error.
It would be interesting to see what would happen if many more competent traders suddenly appeared on the Betfair markets.
Would we face markets like Ascot everyday? Is that a good thing? (Admittedly this may be a poor example as I suspect the majority of money was from punters not traders, but its the volume I'm referring too).
I also suspect a number of trading edges involving price movement by simply having more capital than anyone else would be diluted if there was more traders and more volume.
Hmmm... food for thought
John
The thread is 'interesting' but it is no different to a 100 blogs out there that give more or less the same information.
As for the 'small stakes methodology' as you call it thats sport exchange trading 101... you cant just start out using big stakes without losing lots of money. When I started trading about 18 months ago I read Adam Heathcote's blog and tried to follow his tips but it didnt work me so I lost money.
I have nothing against this thread apart from the fact that to me it seems like a bit of a rant with lots of very obvious points thrown in. And the fact that it is so long-winded maybe a blog would be a good idea for James, that way the forum won't be clogged up with anti- Bet Angel sentiment.
As for the 'small stakes methodology' as you call it thats sport exchange trading 101... you cant just start out using big stakes without losing lots of money. When I started trading about 18 months ago I read Adam Heathcote's blog and tried to follow his tips but it didnt work me so I lost money.
I have nothing against this thread apart from the fact that to me it seems like a bit of a rant with lots of very obvious points thrown in. And the fact that it is so long-winded maybe a blog would be a good idea for James, that way the forum won't be clogged up with anti- Bet Angel sentiment.
I don't think this thread is anti-BA. It just points out that you can be a shitty trader with BA and great trader without it. Some people seem to believe that just having BA or soccer mystic (both great products) will turn them into pro traders. And it doesn't work that way.RafterP wrote:the forum won't be clogged up with anti- Bet Angel sentiment.
Hmm, I agree with the anti Bet Angel point. Bet Angel the product only does as you instruct it and as such can't be held responsible 
.
As for the advertising (trading videos) it can't be denied that they are purposefully enticing to those wanting to have an easy time making money (and they do make it look easy).
The flip side of that is that Bet Angel is perfectly entitled to advertise its product in this way. In skilled hands you can reproduce those results. Its only natural for a business (which it is) to sell it self in a good light.
All the videos I have watched do a lot of how but not so much why. For instance the swing trading video show a few bad trades and then some really good ones. We are told this market looks good for a swing but not why. There again, Bet Angel is a trading platform not a training course on market behaviour and analysis. You can of course also get this training sold separately from Optic as well as others.
Trading, for even a short while, quickly alerts the uninitiated to its complexity and level of difficulty. You can get better at it with practice and careful review and/or guidance.
If this thread provides guidance (and it possibly should be limited to just guidance and not criticism of standard advertising practices) then I can't see the harm as long as you don't take it as gospel and apply a bit of critical thinking to it.
John
.As for the advertising (trading videos) it can't be denied that they are purposefully enticing to those wanting to have an easy time making money (and they do make it look easy).
The flip side of that is that Bet Angel is perfectly entitled to advertise its product in this way. In skilled hands you can reproduce those results. Its only natural for a business (which it is) to sell it self in a good light.
All the videos I have watched do a lot of how but not so much why. For instance the swing trading video show a few bad trades and then some really good ones. We are told this market looks good for a swing but not why. There again, Bet Angel is a trading platform not a training course on market behaviour and analysis. You can of course also get this training sold separately from Optic as well as others.
Trading, for even a short while, quickly alerts the uninitiated to its complexity and level of difficulty. You can get better at it with practice and careful review and/or guidance.
If this thread provides guidance (and it possibly should be limited to just guidance and not criticism of standard advertising practices) then I can't see the harm as long as you don't take it as gospel and apply a bit of critical thinking to it.
John
Hard Work and other Miscellany
Once again, many thanks for all the kind comments although it seems that some traders don’t have to pay commission nor premium charges (taxes) on Betfair, my mistake. It also seems that some responders have difficulty reading my “actual” words but for those who “get it”, here is my next post on how BA promises to make everyone rich
It is not the intention of these posts to make you want to give up being a trader, but when we consider all the preparations, the execution and the pitfalls I doubt that you would have realised that trading involves a lot of hard graft. The glitz and the glamour of being your own boss can pay back handsomely if you get it right, but the chances of more than a small handful of newbie traders making the grade are very small.
Nevertheless, learning to trade in the pre race markets can be a very satisfying hobby/occupation for many so long as you fully realise the enormity of the task.
Since my first horse bet over 50 years ago, pre race trading is the most satisfying challenge I have attempted.
I have no idea where the “anti-BA” inferences have come from, unless readers are not actually reading my words. Bet Angel is one of the best products available with which to trade sports markets and it is worth taking the time to explore it and try out all the options available (just don’t lose too much doing it). I have tried a few of the others and will be sticking with Bet Angel, having developed my own trading dashboard through its Excel function.
In an earlier post I mentioned that “more is less” and now I will tell you that most traders overstake to the extent that their buy/sell actions are encumbered by the sheer scariness of their bets and the potential downside of their trade. This is utter madness and it is perfectly possible, with a £100 bank, to earn a basic full time living from trading without all the stress associated with £1000 or even £10,000 scalps. The variables in trading are the number of ticks, the stake size and the number of trades executed per race, so when deciding on a trading plan it is imperative to get the correct levels so that you feel comfortable trading them.
One of the first questions new traders ask is whether they should lay or back first. Replying that it “doesn’t matter” conceals the fact that you should concentrate on a single direction (most will choose to lay first) until you have mastered the skill of trading. It is inadvisable to mix trading the 2 directions in any single race.
On the face of it, it would seem that a £50 Back bet around the 4’s mark should net the same return for the same number of ticks as a Lay bet but this is not the case. A Lay bet here will return you almost twice a Back bet as you cross increments. When trading across boundaries (odds marked in the ladder in orange), be aware that all is not equal. The unequal values are 10, 6, 4, 3 and 2).
It is not necessary to go “all or nothing” when backing/laying. A favourite trick of mine, used by several traders I know is to split ones stake into 4 equal parts; that allows you to Enter or Exit at different odds. For example you might Lay 4 x £25 bets at 2.1 looking for 1-3 ticks according to your trading plan. You might then Back 2 parts at 1 tick (2.12), one part at 2 ticks (2.14) and the final back part at 3 ticks (2.16). It is a useful strategy that allows you to lock in some profit whilst capitalising on a stronger move that may be happening. It is more useful in trend trading and pulling your Stop Loss up behind you will ensure that you do not fall prey to a sudden drop in odds.
On a final note I would like to wish all the new traders all the very best for their future.
Once again, many thanks for all the kind comments although it seems that some traders don’t have to pay commission nor premium charges (taxes) on Betfair, my mistake. It also seems that some responders have difficulty reading my “actual” words but for those who “get it”, here is my next post on how BA promises to make everyone rich
It is not the intention of these posts to make you want to give up being a trader, but when we consider all the preparations, the execution and the pitfalls I doubt that you would have realised that trading involves a lot of hard graft. The glitz and the glamour of being your own boss can pay back handsomely if you get it right, but the chances of more than a small handful of newbie traders making the grade are very small.
Nevertheless, learning to trade in the pre race markets can be a very satisfying hobby/occupation for many so long as you fully realise the enormity of the task.
Since my first horse bet over 50 years ago, pre race trading is the most satisfying challenge I have attempted.
I have no idea where the “anti-BA” inferences have come from, unless readers are not actually reading my words. Bet Angel is one of the best products available with which to trade sports markets and it is worth taking the time to explore it and try out all the options available (just don’t lose too much doing it). I have tried a few of the others and will be sticking with Bet Angel, having developed my own trading dashboard through its Excel function.
In an earlier post I mentioned that “more is less” and now I will tell you that most traders overstake to the extent that their buy/sell actions are encumbered by the sheer scariness of their bets and the potential downside of their trade. This is utter madness and it is perfectly possible, with a £100 bank, to earn a basic full time living from trading without all the stress associated with £1000 or even £10,000 scalps. The variables in trading are the number of ticks, the stake size and the number of trades executed per race, so when deciding on a trading plan it is imperative to get the correct levels so that you feel comfortable trading them.
One of the first questions new traders ask is whether they should lay or back first. Replying that it “doesn’t matter” conceals the fact that you should concentrate on a single direction (most will choose to lay first) until you have mastered the skill of trading. It is inadvisable to mix trading the 2 directions in any single race.
On the face of it, it would seem that a £50 Back bet around the 4’s mark should net the same return for the same number of ticks as a Lay bet but this is not the case. A Lay bet here will return you almost twice a Back bet as you cross increments. When trading across boundaries (odds marked in the ladder in orange), be aware that all is not equal. The unequal values are 10, 6, 4, 3 and 2).
It is not necessary to go “all or nothing” when backing/laying. A favourite trick of mine, used by several traders I know is to split ones stake into 4 equal parts; that allows you to Enter or Exit at different odds. For example you might Lay 4 x £25 bets at 2.1 looking for 1-3 ticks according to your trading plan. You might then Back 2 parts at 1 tick (2.12), one part at 2 ticks (2.14) and the final back part at 3 ticks (2.16). It is a useful strategy that allows you to lock in some profit whilst capitalising on a stronger move that may be happening. It is more useful in trend trading and pulling your Stop Loss up behind you will ensure that you do not fall prey to a sudden drop in odds.
On a final note I would like to wish all the new traders all the very best for their future.
Hi, Can all those that posted negative /disagree posts please put up a full explanation of there thoughts,ideas and theories on the same subjects that James has covered,this will give a balanced look for all newbies ,the idea being that all those that criticise /disagree are successful traders in there own right and can explain why they are right and he is wrong,i await with interest full and comprehensive replies from all of the above.
mg
mg
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deanodean1984
- Posts: 30
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 10:07 am
Im new to trading (about 6 months) and have been making a steady profit despite not knowing anything about horse racing. I started with a very cautious £20 bank and minimum stakes and simply watched the WOM. As my bank steadily went up so did my stakes. My bank currently stands at £502.68 ( after withdrawing £95 today 
) and my maximum stake is £50 depending on odds. I cant trade every day as im a self employed electrician although i wish i could as i simply enjoy the great tug of war that is betfair. I have only have 3 small pieces of advice for fellow newbies:
* Knowing your position in the queue is vital.
* Never be afraid to scratch (i prob do it too much).
* and finaly...there is always another race.
I wish all my fellow newbies the best of luck.
) and my maximum stake is £50 depending on odds. I cant trade every day as im a self employed electrician although i wish i could as i simply enjoy the great tug of war that is betfair. I have only have 3 small pieces of advice for fellow newbies: * Knowing your position in the queue is vital.
* Never be afraid to scratch (i prob do it too much).
* and finaly...there is always another race.
I wish all my fellow newbies the best of luck.