I have enjoyed reading this thread and thank all for their input. Mot wishing to try and teach anyone how to suck eggs, my own observations on scalping with a reversed book are as follows...
If your initial order or only one side of your orders gets taken and market looks like it will move against you, you can only scratch the trade if there is sufficient money at the scratch price. If not then you cannot fully scratch your trade and although you will be at the front of the queue, you are not G'td to be able to exit.
If market does move against you, then you will only be able to scratch your trade by joining the end of the queue of current money available and getting your order filled. You can of course exit your trade at this time with a one tick loss if there is sufficient money available if you believe the move looks like remaining/continuing.
IMO it all boils down to an individuals judgement of market behaviour and level of risk (number of tick losses)they are prepared to take before exiting.
Less volatile/more stable markets tend to suit scalping more although you can still be successful in a market where price movements are taking place if you can get on the right side at the beginning of a move.
Regards
Doug
Newbies Trading in the Dark
Hi MG,madgoose wrote:Hi, Can all those that posted negative /disagree posts please put up a full explanation of there thoughts,ideas and theories on the same subjects that James has covered,this will give a balanced look for all newbies ,the idea being that all those that criticise /disagree are successful traders in there own right and can explain why they are right and he is wrong,i await with interest full and comprehensive replies from all of the above.
mg
There are generally 2 types of succesful traders, those who create blogs and tell the world how much money they make and in some cases (very few) give some very good advice, and those like me who make a comfortable living full time from it but wont be buying a Bentley anytime soon.
One thing both types have in common is that they wont be telling you their secrets on how they make their money. I started off with €10 stakes on pre-race horse markets and stuck with those stakes until I was confident that I had a feel for the market and probably more importantly was controlled enough not to over-react to price movements. At the start of this year when meetings were been cancelled all over the place I branched out into the tennis markets and just recently have moved into the football markets. It took me a lot of time and work to create my style and I wont be sharing it anytime soon, point being that its down to hard work and trial and error. If this wasnt the case everybody could buy a book and immediately go and make millions on the stock market!
As mctash proved yesterday with the above quote people will go and read James' posts and think that all his points are common sense (which they are) but I can gaurantee that if you try a strategy based solely on his musings you are doomed to failure. Every succesful trader has started off on small stakes (not always minumum) and worked his way up. For a prime example please see below!mctash wrote:I agree with enzabella2009.
The thread is informative and is miles ahead of the 'get a feel for it with small stakes' methodology. It still requires practice but at least you are targeting your practice not bumbling around using trial and error.
deanodean1984 wrote:Im new to trading (about 6 months) and have been making a steady profit despite not knowing anything about horse racing. I started with a very cautious £20 bank and minimum stakes and simply watched the WOM. As my bank steadily went up so did my stakes. My bank currently stands at £502.68 ( after withdrawing £95 today) and my maximum stake is £50 depending on odds. I cant trade every day as im a self employed electrician although i wish i could as i simply enjoy the great tug of war that is betfair. I have only have 3 small pieces of advice for fellow newbies:
* Knowing your position in the queue is vital.
* Never be afraid to scratch (i prob do it too much).
* and finaly...there is always another race.
I wish all my fellow newbies the best of luck.
My main problem with James' posts is not that he is wrong but that 'newbies' may interpret all his points and try to put them into a strategy without doing the legwork. Lets face it most newbies aren't interested in doing the legwork at the start, they're lookimg for the holy grail piece of information or strategy, I was the same when I started out.
Bottom line is that you have to put in the hard work and you WILL lose money to begin with so it makes sense to use minimum or small stakes.
As for reversing the book I don't use it all, not because I don't think it works but because visually it would probably confuse the hell out of me and I don't see any advantage.
My other problem with James is that I don't think he's put in any time trading in the markets at all or at least very little. Take his comment above...James1st wrote:Specially for Mug
If your bet IS taken, then the market is patently moving upwards ie AGAINST your counterpart trade of (Lay) £50 at 3.65. So you are immediately in negative territory.
Because the bet has been taken doesn't mean that the market is moving against you. The price can stay static with lots of money been taken on both sides of the book. No matter how volatile the market is there will always be times when the prices stay static, even if only for a very short period of time. This is where 'scalpers' make their money and on volatile markets this is where the 'swing traders' come into their own. The trick is to combine both of these skills.
I wish you all good luck and to you newbies I only say if you are not prepared to put in the work and lose some money to begin with then trading is definitely not for you.
Hi,
Another thread that's a very interesting read! Disclosure: I've been trying trading for 3-4 months, am still a net loser, still trying, but definitely starting to feel like a dofus.
I can't understand why Peter Webb always seem to win and I always seem to lose
--
I've always been a bit puzzled as to those traders who go around offering others 'advice'. There's obviously a conflict of interest, which to my mind has always made it dubious. I do notice that those people who talk about their success appear to cop some flak, it doesn't seem to go down too well with some. Personally I don't have too much of a problem with someone else's success, but there do seem to be some people that react badly.
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The thing is, I think that my failure so far is due to the psychological factors rather than lack of brain power. I'm a gambler at heart, too impatient to get the big spectacular wins, and the sporting aspect just doesn't sit with the money making aspect, they are two different mentalities I think. The attention of sport is supporting one particular team, player or horse and cheering it on. This is the exact opposite of the trading mentality, which requires viewing everything objectivity and keeping a cool head. So this psychological contradiction I think is part of the reason that people find sports trading hard.
Another thread that's a very interesting read! Disclosure: I've been trying trading for 3-4 months, am still a net loser, still trying, but definitely starting to feel like a dofus.
I can't understand why Peter Webb always seem to win and I always seem to lose
--
I've always been a bit puzzled as to those traders who go around offering others 'advice'. There's obviously a conflict of interest, which to my mind has always made it dubious. I do notice that those people who talk about their success appear to cop some flak, it doesn't seem to go down too well with some. Personally I don't have too much of a problem with someone else's success, but there do seem to be some people that react badly.
---
The thing is, I think that my failure so far is due to the psychological factors rather than lack of brain power. I'm a gambler at heart, too impatient to get the big spectacular wins, and the sporting aspect just doesn't sit with the money making aspect, they are two different mentalities I think. The attention of sport is supporting one particular team, player or horse and cheering it on. This is the exact opposite of the trading mentality, which requires viewing everything objectivity and keeping a cool head. So this psychological contradiction I think is part of the reason that people find sports trading hard.
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enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
James1st never claimed any antibetangel sentiment. James1st never advertised a blog. James1st never advertised any particular strategy that would make newbies lose money. He never said reverse book is a MUST NOT. Advicing newbies the correct mental strengh needed to be a trader it can`t be something negative. There must be other reasons why he is getting some negative and unclear comments by rafterp. it`s not true that professionals never share their aknowledge, betangel is a proove of it. I may be missing something here because of my english but I cant see what james1st is doing wrong, honestly.
I agree with enzabella. Trading is made out to be easy, u just back, then lay, and profit. Nothing is mentioned about how much of a mental game it is, and that small flaws or characteristics in ur emotional make up can have a huge effect on your trading. I dont see why someone who is just pointing this fact out for newbie traders is getting so much stick, from people who we have no way of knowing whether they are actually profitable traders or not.
Nobody is giving anybody stick as far as I can see. James1st has done some good posts, its just that some of use didn't agree with some of the comments. I think it's a great thread.
Also, not all of us carry emotional baggage. Maybe a thread should be started on why some people just can't do it or make the same mistake again and again, that would be just as helpful.
Also, not all of us carry emotional baggage. Maybe a thread should be started on why some people just can't do it or make the same mistake again and again, that would be just as helpful.
Other reasons?! Its a debate enzabella, I just dont agree with some of his comments, and some of his comments don't seem to be from someone who trades these markets day in and day out. To me it looks like he studied them for maybe a day or two and made his mind up that the markets always behave this way. On the other side of the argument I've also said that I agree with some of his points so I don't understand why you think i'm against everything he's written.enzabella2009 wrote: There must be other reasons why he is getting some negative and unclear comments by rafterp. it`s not true that professionals never share their aknowledge, betangel is a proove of it.
To your point about professionals sharing their knowledge bet angel is a tool for trading, nothing more. It doesn't tell you how to make a profit consistently and nor should it.
And to answer your point neeeel,neeeel wrote:I agree with enzabella. Trading is made out to be easy, u just back, then lay, and profit. Nothing is mentioned about how much of a mental game it is, and that small flaws or characteristics in ur emotional make up can have a huge effect on your trading. I dont see why someone who is just pointing this fact out for newbie traders is getting so much stick, from people who we have no way of knowing whether they are actually profitable traders or not.
If people do any amount of homework before starting out at trading then they'll find plenty of advice and plenty of blogs out there stating that trading is 99% mental discipline. If that didn't cross your mind beforehand then you are definitely in the wrong game.
This is why I very rarely post on these threads, because when you disagree with somebody it can become personal. And usually not with the person you disagree with but with others who don't understand how trading works.
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enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
nothing personal m8.. where did you get the idea we were not debating? where did you get the idea we dont understand about tradings. I am still missing something here.. 
Many thanks for the positive words Enzabella, but I am long enough in the tooth to accept criticism and not bat an eyelid. However, posters who presume that they know me, my history or my trading status are shooting in the dark but I have come to recognise comments born of arrogance, that someone would dare question the established order of apprenticeship. Just because the majority of traders learnt their trade “from the ground up” and “sucking it and seeing”, does not mean that they are correct nor does it mean that every successful trader did/does it that way . Nor does it mean they are wrong, just different. Drawing conclusions that some one else’s methods are naïve or are a product of fanciful theory and exclusive of practical experience, demonstrates plain ignorance of the facts. Darwin faced the same criticism. When a trader reaches the point where he can predict with reasonable certainty, exactly where the odds are heading to when they move, and I don’t mean roughly, I mean exactly, then they will fully understand the pre race market. Not before then.
There are many facets to trading and the methods widely vary. Most traders are oblivious to what the market is doing around them and fail to recognise the predictability of where the “shakers and movers” are taking the odds. It is a much more structured environment than people realise. There is no “correct” way to trade but ones trading style is usually adapted to suit ones personality. (Great point by Mug on personality!).
Without insulting anyone, scalping is more the realm of introverts, loners and blinkered minds whereas defining different ways of looking at the market moves pre-race, including swing trading, requires a different sort of mind. One who can address problems from unique perspectives and quickly grasp a global overview of the market possibilities has greater leeway in how he chooses to benefit. One famous blogger certainly falls into this category; some folk believe he has mystical powers..lol.
There are many facets to trading and the methods widely vary. Most traders are oblivious to what the market is doing around them and fail to recognise the predictability of where the “shakers and movers” are taking the odds. It is a much more structured environment than people realise. There is no “correct” way to trade but ones trading style is usually adapted to suit ones personality. (Great point by Mug on personality!).
Without insulting anyone, scalping is more the realm of introverts, loners and blinkered minds whereas defining different ways of looking at the market moves pre-race, including swing trading, requires a different sort of mind. One who can address problems from unique perspectives and quickly grasp a global overview of the market possibilities has greater leeway in how he chooses to benefit. One famous blogger certainly falls into this category; some folk believe he has mystical powers..lol.
Hmm, that paragraph of mine your quoting wasn't really addressing the size of stake a beginner should use. It was addressing the idea that just to dive right in and have a go without having a clue is not a good way to start anything which is inherently risky. Unless your actively seeking to be food for others in one way or another.As mctash proved yesterday with the above quote people will go and read James' posts and think that all his points are common sense (which they are) but I can gaurantee that if you try a strategy based solely on his musings you are doomed to failure. Every succesful trader has started off on small stakes (not always minumum) and worked his way up. For a prime example please see below!
I also said people should use a bit of critical thinking with this thread, as they should with any advice they absorb.
John
James1st wrote: However, posters who presume that they know me, my history or my trading status are shooting in the dark but I have come to recognise comments born of arrogance, that someone would dare question the established order of apprenticeship.
I'm sorry if I came across as arrogant, I just didn't agree with some of the points you raised. And to say 'that someone would dare question the established order of apprenticeship' how arrogant is that?! It's also extremely vague. Can you elaborate?
Without insulting anyone, scalping is more the realm of introverts, loners and blinkered minds whereas defining different ways of looking at the market moves pre-race, including swing trading, requires a different sort of mind.
I think you managed to insult 90% of BA users with that comment!
RafterP
No one is trying to insult anyone in this forum, so it’s best to keep personal judgements of other posters to yourself. You said “I just dont agree with some of his comments, and some of his comments don't seem to be from someone who trades these markets day in and day out. To me it looks like he studied them for maybe a day or two and made his mind up that the markets always behave this way.”. This, I presume was intended as a personal attack and not a constructive criticism of the content of my posts. For the record you are completely wrong but I do understand why you made the comment.
Heretofore, the prevalent advice given to newbies learning to pre race trade was to jump into the markets and (albeit with small stakes), try out a few random trades until you recognise how it all works. My position is that there are other ways of approaching a new venture that involve a more top down approach to learning and understanding. A student learning about the combustion engine doesn’t need to dive headlong into learning how to change a sparkplug before he is instructed why its not a good idea to stand in front of a moving vehicle.
My posts are intended to look at the bigger picture first whilst listing all the options and pitfalls that a novice might face. Not everyone will face all the issues, nor are they expected to follow my posts as if they are some sort of comprehensive plan. However, the posts do highlight most of the issues that most traders will face sooner or later.
Newbies have an option on how they approach trading, whether their personality best suits scalping where the concentration is on the detailed movement of odds within a tight range, or perhaps they may be best suited to the wave trade looking for 3-5 ticks or even approach the Betfair market as they would any market and look for very long trades.
Just because a lot of traders were encouraged to go “change a sparkplug” does not mean that it is the best way to learn about Betfair markets (established order of apprenticeship). In fact I would go as far as to say that it’s the worst possible way to get your feet wet. I do not deny that many successful traders were encouraged to do this and have, after some considerable time, made a success of it. But what none of us really knows is how much more lucrative it would have been for them had they not dived in straight away, instead taking time to learn about market trading from the top down.
A discussion about what type of personality best suits what type of trading is necessarily one that will cause some folk to take umbrage at being typecast. It seems rather obvious to me that an introvert would be more comfortable tinkering with the engine rather than driving the car, but then again that’s just my own opinion. There are many personality test available to allow one to get an objective opinion of a responders character and in the words of BB Ashleyne “know yourself” is an important piece of key knowledge that can prove useful in determining trading style.
No one is trying to insult anyone in this forum, so it’s best to keep personal judgements of other posters to yourself. You said “I just dont agree with some of his comments, and some of his comments don't seem to be from someone who trades these markets day in and day out. To me it looks like he studied them for maybe a day or two and made his mind up that the markets always behave this way.”. This, I presume was intended as a personal attack and not a constructive criticism of the content of my posts. For the record you are completely wrong but I do understand why you made the comment.
Heretofore, the prevalent advice given to newbies learning to pre race trade was to jump into the markets and (albeit with small stakes), try out a few random trades until you recognise how it all works. My position is that there are other ways of approaching a new venture that involve a more top down approach to learning and understanding. A student learning about the combustion engine doesn’t need to dive headlong into learning how to change a sparkplug before he is instructed why its not a good idea to stand in front of a moving vehicle.
My posts are intended to look at the bigger picture first whilst listing all the options and pitfalls that a novice might face. Not everyone will face all the issues, nor are they expected to follow my posts as if they are some sort of comprehensive plan. However, the posts do highlight most of the issues that most traders will face sooner or later.
Newbies have an option on how they approach trading, whether their personality best suits scalping where the concentration is on the detailed movement of odds within a tight range, or perhaps they may be best suited to the wave trade looking for 3-5 ticks or even approach the Betfair market as they would any market and look for very long trades.
Just because a lot of traders were encouraged to go “change a sparkplug” does not mean that it is the best way to learn about Betfair markets (established order of apprenticeship). In fact I would go as far as to say that it’s the worst possible way to get your feet wet. I do not deny that many successful traders were encouraged to do this and have, after some considerable time, made a success of it. But what none of us really knows is how much more lucrative it would have been for them had they not dived in straight away, instead taking time to learn about market trading from the top down.
A discussion about what type of personality best suits what type of trading is necessarily one that will cause some folk to take umbrage at being typecast. It seems rather obvious to me that an introvert would be more comfortable tinkering with the engine rather than driving the car, but then again that’s just my own opinion. There are many personality test available to allow one to get an objective opinion of a responders character and in the words of BB Ashleyne “know yourself” is an important piece of key knowledge that can prove useful in determining trading style.
I think you need a strong personality type in order to succeed in any style, but getting into half cocked generalisations about what kind of personalities each type of user might have is falling into pretty dodgy ground.
Having said that he does make some good points here. For a great deal of people the original 'blueprint' for trading came from those early scalping videos which people followed and built a worldview around that.
Having said that he does make some good points here. For a great deal of people the original 'blueprint' for trading came from those early scalping videos which people followed and built a worldview around that.