deary me
why not just do it intuitively and make some money- and have fun?
Newbies Trading in the Dark
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blackfriar
- Posts: 21
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 3:06 pm
I think this should be stickied for all the beginners to read. However, the general gist ('You can't expect to be in profit by simply guessing a market') comes to you quite naturally after you have played with the markets, especially pre-race horses, for a month or two and have inevitably lost some money. That's why everyone says use the minimum £2 stakes - so it won't hurt you.
I agree that lots of parties promote the lure betfair trading in an unrealistic way, which to the average Joe, will only cause financial upset. However, it's no different to the way brokers, software vendors or tutors of financial markets promote their latest golden ticket to market success.
I first dipped my toe into betfair trading on pre-race horse markets and in hindsight I think that's a bad route for a newbie. It looks alluring because the price changes quickly and there are lots of apparent opportunities - but for every 1-2 tick opportunity where a newbie makes a profit, they will lose out in a price movement away from them by 3-4 ticks. Sit in front of a computer for a day, repeating that ad infinitum, and you'd need the patience of a saint not to start steaming and developing bad trading habits.
I'd say start with football and cricket markets, with live pictures, and minimum. The OP is right in that no-one in their right mind would divulge their 'edge' to you, certainly not without charging a fee, so you just need to put the hours in to make trading work long-term.
James1st, if you don't mind saying - how is it you've had years of financial market experience but are now looking at betfair? I've always viewed betfair as a more beginner-friendly market, which could indicate if a trader had the necessary psychology to make it in the larger financial markets? I know they are two very different beasts, but still... Cool thread mate!
I agree that lots of parties promote the lure betfair trading in an unrealistic way, which to the average Joe, will only cause financial upset. However, it's no different to the way brokers, software vendors or tutors of financial markets promote their latest golden ticket to market success.
I first dipped my toe into betfair trading on pre-race horse markets and in hindsight I think that's a bad route for a newbie. It looks alluring because the price changes quickly and there are lots of apparent opportunities - but for every 1-2 tick opportunity where a newbie makes a profit, they will lose out in a price movement away from them by 3-4 ticks. Sit in front of a computer for a day, repeating that ad infinitum, and you'd need the patience of a saint not to start steaming and developing bad trading habits.
I'd say start with football and cricket markets, with live pictures, and minimum. The OP is right in that no-one in their right mind would divulge their 'edge' to you, certainly not without charging a fee, so you just need to put the hours in to make trading work long-term.
James1st, if you don't mind saying - how is it you've had years of financial market experience but are now looking at betfair? I've always viewed betfair as a more beginner-friendly market, which could indicate if a trader had the necessary psychology to make it in the larger financial markets? I know they are two very different beasts, but still... Cool thread mate!
Thanks for the comments guys. I’m glad someone brought up the reverse book strategy because as a solitary “edge”, it is a matter of simple mathematics (as I said in my last post) to demonstrate that it is a losing strategy. To back at the lay price and scalp by laying at the back price as a singular trading action (without any other considerations) assumes that you are trading the odds downward. However, to get your bet taken you need the market to go upwards and if the market goes upwards your scalp (lay at the back price) is lost and you are now 2 ticks away from profit. Mathematically there is a 50% chance that it will go either way, so it doesn’t take a genius to work out that you have a 50% upside versus a 75% downside to that strategy. Nothing wrong with reversing the book, but as a “complete” trading plan it has a negative “edge”. Auto Stop Loss will be lost if you switch markets but if you are following a strict plan, maybe you should not be switching markets (or getting distracted at all?) whilst you have a live trade in the market.
Petemalta: Losing money at Las Vegas is fun. Making money isn’t fun, its hard work.
The Trading Plan
Ideally your trading plan should be really simple because you may have less than a second to recognise your entry trigger and complex plans take too long to execute. A trading plan is a set of simple rules that you intend to live or die by and having them written down and pinned to your desk will force you to abide by the trading plan with absolutely no deviation. If your “edge” is unclear then you will have problems making instant decisions, so it is best to define the edge as a simple entry and exit point. Executing your trading plan (as written down) should be such a simple process as to require no thought in its execution, so its wise to remove any ambiguities as soon as possible.
For reasons that I will discuss later, the first rule of trading is to remember that you are “trading” and not gambling. That means you will be settling your trade at the 60 second call, come hell or high water!. The final 60 seconds of the pre-race market is a time when many traders are getting out of their positions and the volatility is sometimes crazy…just don’t get involved and make sure you are out before the mayhem erupts. Most novice traders will “go to the wire” when trading and some even go “in-running” rather than take a loss and that is the certain way to the poor house. Here now is a set of Trading Plan rules as an example:
RULE 1: I will exit my trade, win or lose, at the 60second mark.
RULE 2: eg** I will LAY when WOM > 66% and there is a £3000 or more bet at the front of the Lay queue (this is your ENTRY point). My bet is placed ahead of the £3000 bet.
RULE 3: eg** I will BACK when I make 3 ticks or when WOM < 50% (this is your EXIT point)
RULE 4: My Stop Loss will be set at 3 ticks below ENTRY point and will be set immediately my LAY bet is taken. I will never move my Stop Loss to greater than 3 ticks.
** This is a fictitious “edge” for the purposes of this demo. Please define your own edge.
RULE 5: I will not trade on All Weather races
Etc
Just a word on the importance of Money Management. Most beginners seem to get the maths totally wrong when starting out and often over commit them selves by employing different stakes/liabilities and different stop losses with no idea about what their profit expectancy should be. As a suggestion, I would recommend an active bank* of no more than £100 (more is less, as we will see later). Stakes should be proportional to the odds being traded (£20 at 5/1 or £50 at 2/1) and the Auto Stake.Auto Update is a useful way to learn about staking. I would suggest that you further split your stake into 4 parts** and use 100% of your bank on each trade (later, when your bank grows, this will reduce to 10% of your bank on any trade). Depending on your trading plan and the “edge” you have defined, your Stop Loss should be set 4-5 ticks away (at between £2-3 loss) with a profit expectancy of around £2-3. In stock markets, win-loss ratios are generally 2-1 or 3-1 but in Betfair you will do well to average just over 1.5-1 ratio. Scalping was discussed earlier and obviously Stop loss needs to be set very tightly compared to swing trading and the profit expectancy depends on how many scalps are completed within the given time of the Trading plan.
*Active Bank is the sum currently being employed in your account, all other monies being shifted to the Australian?Account. (You can scale the £100 recommendation down to whatever suits).
** 4 part stakes.....more of this later
Summary to date:
So far we have covered the need to have a clearly defined edge and how that edge forms the basis of your trading plan. We have discussed how to calculate whether you have a winning strategy mathematically speaking and also the importance of being precise in definition and execution of your plan. We have also covered the ranging and trending of odds and how they can help us define an edge. Striving to eliminate errors and other mistakes and personality traits will be covered later.
Next time I will tell you why you have to lose before you can win at trading.
Petemalta: Losing money at Las Vegas is fun. Making money isn’t fun, its hard work.
The Trading Plan
Ideally your trading plan should be really simple because you may have less than a second to recognise your entry trigger and complex plans take too long to execute. A trading plan is a set of simple rules that you intend to live or die by and having them written down and pinned to your desk will force you to abide by the trading plan with absolutely no deviation. If your “edge” is unclear then you will have problems making instant decisions, so it is best to define the edge as a simple entry and exit point. Executing your trading plan (as written down) should be such a simple process as to require no thought in its execution, so its wise to remove any ambiguities as soon as possible.
For reasons that I will discuss later, the first rule of trading is to remember that you are “trading” and not gambling. That means you will be settling your trade at the 60 second call, come hell or high water!. The final 60 seconds of the pre-race market is a time when many traders are getting out of their positions and the volatility is sometimes crazy…just don’t get involved and make sure you are out before the mayhem erupts. Most novice traders will “go to the wire” when trading and some even go “in-running” rather than take a loss and that is the certain way to the poor house. Here now is a set of Trading Plan rules as an example:
RULE 1: I will exit my trade, win or lose, at the 60second mark.
RULE 2: eg** I will LAY when WOM > 66% and there is a £3000 or more bet at the front of the Lay queue (this is your ENTRY point). My bet is placed ahead of the £3000 bet.
RULE 3: eg** I will BACK when I make 3 ticks or when WOM < 50% (this is your EXIT point)
RULE 4: My Stop Loss will be set at 3 ticks below ENTRY point and will be set immediately my LAY bet is taken. I will never move my Stop Loss to greater than 3 ticks.
** This is a fictitious “edge” for the purposes of this demo. Please define your own edge.
RULE 5: I will not trade on All Weather races
Etc
Just a word on the importance of Money Management. Most beginners seem to get the maths totally wrong when starting out and often over commit them selves by employing different stakes/liabilities and different stop losses with no idea about what their profit expectancy should be. As a suggestion, I would recommend an active bank* of no more than £100 (more is less, as we will see later). Stakes should be proportional to the odds being traded (£20 at 5/1 or £50 at 2/1) and the Auto Stake.Auto Update is a useful way to learn about staking. I would suggest that you further split your stake into 4 parts** and use 100% of your bank on each trade (later, when your bank grows, this will reduce to 10% of your bank on any trade). Depending on your trading plan and the “edge” you have defined, your Stop Loss should be set 4-5 ticks away (at between £2-3 loss) with a profit expectancy of around £2-3. In stock markets, win-loss ratios are generally 2-1 or 3-1 but in Betfair you will do well to average just over 1.5-1 ratio. Scalping was discussed earlier and obviously Stop loss needs to be set very tightly compared to swing trading and the profit expectancy depends on how many scalps are completed within the given time of the Trading plan.
*Active Bank is the sum currently being employed in your account, all other monies being shifted to the Australian?Account. (You can scale the £100 recommendation down to whatever suits).
** 4 part stakes.....more of this later
Summary to date:
So far we have covered the need to have a clearly defined edge and how that edge forms the basis of your trading plan. We have discussed how to calculate whether you have a winning strategy mathematically speaking and also the importance of being precise in definition and execution of your plan. We have also covered the ranging and trending of odds and how they can help us define an edge. Striving to eliminate errors and other mistakes and personality traits will be covered later.
Next time I will tell you why you have to lose before you can win at trading.
Thank You James for taking the time to share all of this good stuff. Like others, I am looking forward to your next post.
In fairness to others who have advocated starting out trading randomly. I guess they have felt that dipping a small toe in the market is a good way of learning market dynamics and getting used to stop-lossing.
In fairness to others who have advocated starting out trading randomly. I guess they have felt that dipping a small toe in the market is a good way of learning market dynamics and getting used to stop-lossing.
With respect to the effort you are putting in to help others, this section appears to be complete baloney. Either that or I have completely failed to understand it?James1st wrote:Thanks for the comments guys. I’m glad someone brought up the reverse book strategy because as a solitary “edge”, it is a matter of simple mathematics (as I said in my last post) to demonstrate that it is a losing strategy. To back at the lay price and scalp by laying at the back price as a singular trading action (without any other considerations) assumes that you are trading the odds downward. However, to get your bet taken you need the market to go upwards and if the market goes upwards your scalp (lay at the back price) is lost and you are now 2 ticks away from profit. Mathematically there is a 50% chance that it will go either way, so it doesn’t take a genius to work out that you have a 50% upside versus a 75% downside to that strategy. Nothing wrong with reversing the book, but as a “complete” trading plan it has a negative “edge”.
Also with due respect, I think it's the later case, either you don't understand, either you overgrown reading like this.Mug wrote: With respect to the effort you are putting in to help others, this section appears to be complete baloney. Either that or I have completely failed to understand it?
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lilgreenback
- Posts: 211
- Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 11:28 am
Hi James1st,
That's a well constructed and very informative post, thanks for taking the time to place it on the forum. I would think that coupled with the other info that is available it will give newbs a valuble means to view trading quite objectively.
I must say that I would certainly add that to the many other posts that people have generously offered up and consider reading it through as worthwhile.
There are people joining the forum all the time and the more info available to them the more they will feel included and in some ways not floundering on their own. As it can be lonely and soul destroying at times when it's all going pear shaped and you don't know why.
Cheers Mate
LilGB
That's a well constructed and very informative post, thanks for taking the time to place it on the forum. I would think that coupled with the other info that is available it will give newbs a valuble means to view trading quite objectively.
I must say that I would certainly add that to the many other posts that people have generously offered up and consider reading it through as worthwhile.
There are people joining the forum all the time and the more info available to them the more they will feel included and in some ways not floundering on their own. As it can be lonely and soul destroying at times when it's all going pear shaped and you don't know why.
Cheers Mate
LilGB
Mug, I don’t think you are following the crux of my rationale and whilst there is nothing wrong with a reverse book offset strategy, but used at random and in isolation of other qualifying rules for Entry, it is simply not a profitable strategy. If you use it in conjunction with other rules, it certainly can help elevate profits but then again you didn’t mention any other criteria for its use (eg the market must be static and not moving). If the market moves you may lose.
Enzabella, Thanks for the series, which I recognise as a Fibonacci series. However, I am a purist in gambling and in trading, when a method fails to make a level stake profit, I find that increasing stakes merely magnifies losses.
Why losing is good for you!
No matter how many times I might say or write that my expected win rate is 80%, I have in my personality the ability to absolutely refuse to accept that this high a %age win rate includes the fact that I will lose 20% of the time. As I merrily trade away, chuntering through the races I am happy with my 80% and 1/3rd way through the day, I get a losing trade. The market changed….how dare it!…doesn’t it realise that I have only had 7 winners in a row. This losing trade must be wrong, I remove my Stop Loss awaiting a market correction…but of course it doesn’t happen and the market continues to dive in the wrong direction. Now I am facing a huge loss, and all because I refused to believe that 80% win rate does not mean 100%, even though my Trading Plan stated this quite clearly. What is it in me that refuses to acknowledge that trading means accepting losses as well as wins? Is it that I can’t accept being wrong?
Accepting losing trades is part and parcel of trading and the sooner we get used to that fact the better. It is so much better to lose according to our trading plan than to have no idea where we stand in the size of losses we might incur. Sods Law will ensure you are taught a lesson if you make this mistake. Manageable losses, defined in our plan, are exactly that…we are managing and minimising our losses.
All too often do novice traders, myself included, put our entire bank at stake by refusing to accept a planned loss and allowing our trades to go in running. Before you get to experience how that feels, let me caution you against such a foolish move. Just try to get used to allowing your Stop Losses to trigger out and continue with your next trade or move onto the next market. The sooner you experience that minor pain compared to the agony that awaits if you lose your whole bank, the better. That is why I am encouraging you to lose a few trades, accept the loss and move on. This is the only way you will learn to win overall. In a later post I will tell you just how much I hate to lose at anything and just why this otherwise laudable character trait has hindered my progress for a considerable time.
Your trading plan will prepare you for the losses, depending on your known strike rate, and you need to accept what your plan is telling you. If your plan allows for a certain percentage of losses, then you can only realise your daily target by accepting both the gains and the losses stipulated therein. There are countless other reasons why you will lose at trading, none of which I have covered thus far, so do not complicate your life by breaking the rules deliberately and failing to follow your plan.
Newbies should start off by completing 20 small stake trades based on their trading plan, following it strictly to the letter, accepting wins and losses before they even think about looking at their P/L. Only after 20 trades should you look at the P/L and see the whole picture. If the plan is working there will be an overall profit and the presence of minus figures on the page will appear unimportant in the greater scheme of things.
I have managed to get around 15 winners in a row whilst others claim to have made 45 or more, but realistically most novices are doing well to string 3 winners together before encountering a loser. Never let the losing trade distract you from following the plan. Practise makes perfect and attention to detail is how we add precision to our trading.
Next time we can look at a few other reasons why most traders lose and we will examine a few character traits that may hinder your progress towards becoming a full time trader.
Enzabella, Thanks for the series, which I recognise as a Fibonacci series. However, I am a purist in gambling and in trading, when a method fails to make a level stake profit, I find that increasing stakes merely magnifies losses.
Why losing is good for you!
No matter how many times I might say or write that my expected win rate is 80%, I have in my personality the ability to absolutely refuse to accept that this high a %age win rate includes the fact that I will lose 20% of the time. As I merrily trade away, chuntering through the races I am happy with my 80% and 1/3rd way through the day, I get a losing trade. The market changed….how dare it!…doesn’t it realise that I have only had 7 winners in a row. This losing trade must be wrong, I remove my Stop Loss awaiting a market correction…but of course it doesn’t happen and the market continues to dive in the wrong direction. Now I am facing a huge loss, and all because I refused to believe that 80% win rate does not mean 100%, even though my Trading Plan stated this quite clearly. What is it in me that refuses to acknowledge that trading means accepting losses as well as wins? Is it that I can’t accept being wrong?
Accepting losing trades is part and parcel of trading and the sooner we get used to that fact the better. It is so much better to lose according to our trading plan than to have no idea where we stand in the size of losses we might incur. Sods Law will ensure you are taught a lesson if you make this mistake. Manageable losses, defined in our plan, are exactly that…we are managing and minimising our losses.
All too often do novice traders, myself included, put our entire bank at stake by refusing to accept a planned loss and allowing our trades to go in running. Before you get to experience how that feels, let me caution you against such a foolish move. Just try to get used to allowing your Stop Losses to trigger out and continue with your next trade or move onto the next market. The sooner you experience that minor pain compared to the agony that awaits if you lose your whole bank, the better. That is why I am encouraging you to lose a few trades, accept the loss and move on. This is the only way you will learn to win overall. In a later post I will tell you just how much I hate to lose at anything and just why this otherwise laudable character trait has hindered my progress for a considerable time.
Your trading plan will prepare you for the losses, depending on your known strike rate, and you need to accept what your plan is telling you. If your plan allows for a certain percentage of losses, then you can only realise your daily target by accepting both the gains and the losses stipulated therein. There are countless other reasons why you will lose at trading, none of which I have covered thus far, so do not complicate your life by breaking the rules deliberately and failing to follow your plan.
Newbies should start off by completing 20 small stake trades based on their trading plan, following it strictly to the letter, accepting wins and losses before they even think about looking at their P/L. Only after 20 trades should you look at the P/L and see the whole picture. If the plan is working there will be an overall profit and the presence of minus figures on the page will appear unimportant in the greater scheme of things.
I have managed to get around 15 winners in a row whilst others claim to have made 45 or more, but realistically most novices are doing well to string 3 winners together before encountering a loser. Never let the losing trade distract you from following the plan. Practise makes perfect and attention to detail is how we add precision to our trading.
Next time we can look at a few other reasons why most traders lose and we will examine a few character traits that may hinder your progress towards becoming a full time trader.
I think you are getting a little mixed up on this one. If you reverse the book and trade on the opposite side then if the price goes one tick against you, you scratch. You don't need a two tick move as you quoted. Also it's not a 50/50 chance that the price can move up or down.James1st wrote:Mug, I don’t think you are following the crux of my rationale and whilst there is nothing wrong with a reverse book offset strategy, but used at random and in isolation of other qualifying rules for Entry, it is simply not a profitable strategy.
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enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
well spotted james. that was the Fibonacci series. I have cancelled it from the forum realising the danger for newbies to try to apply the fibonacci series over tradings. I have been using it for while but before making it one of my main trading strategy I have been play with it for months using pennys. During the football season I can`t afford 50% rate or less within 1000s matches per week ( in play or not). The fibonacci series can be interchanged within the tradings feutures without necessarily increasing the stakes. I can create group of matches that all togheter can equal to a margin of profit or loss and consequently act to the next level by changing some factors in the bettings or tradings. Like you said previuosly it is hard work. sometimes people think I am mad but I love it.
Example:
500MO=PT300*1-NT200*1=P85=RFBS * 500MO
500MO=PT250*1-NT250*1=L12.5=IFBS * 50MO*10T
500MO=PT200*1-NT300*1=L110=IFBS * 10MO*50T
Example:
500MO=PT300*1-NT200*1=P85=RFBS * 500MO
500MO=PT250*1-NT250*1=L12.5=IFBS * 50MO*10T
500MO=PT200*1-NT300*1=L110=IFBS * 10MO*50T
Why Traders Lose
This (almost) penultimate post is based on my own experiences as a trainee trader and although some of these will not apply to yourself, at this time, care should be taken to fully understand why we act in the human way we do when operating a mechanical system.
1. I am/was a gambler at heart but I have learnt that pre race trading is not about making a quick kill and success is measured by the slow and steady accumulation and compounding of wealth.
2. I do not follow my plan/my plan isn’t specific enough (triggers are interpretive rather than factual)/my trading plan has no “edge” and is not delivering
3. When I face a losing trade, I deviate from my plan; anything to avoid taking a small loss. Sometimes I double up my losing trades, go in running or back/lay the horse I was trading
4. I sometimes trade when I feel ill, hungover or stressed when my reactions are compromised. I often miss Entry and Exit points during those times.
5. I sometimes make a mistake in following my plan and back instead of lay, fail to obey all the rules of my plan, press the wrong button etc
6. I get distracted or interrupted during trading and miss out on the juiciest trade of the day. That soccer match I was following also lost me money. I am now depressed (see 4 above).
7. I get angry when I make a mistake or when a trade goes against me and my next few trades are affected
8. I overtrade by seeing opportunities that are not in my plan. They mostly lose, I lose concentration and now I am getting stressed (see 4 above).
9. I freeze and fail to trigger my entry point because I’m watching the TV pictures and can see my horse bucking, crapping and neighing (as horses do!)
10. I miss my Entry or Exit point because my computer freezes on another window I was distractedly looking at, my ISP crashes, my electricity is cut etc
11. I practise yoga during a trading session and fall asleep at the wheel
12. I start trading with some of my BA settings wrong because I forgot to reset them after last nights tennis trading session
13. I am late getting to a race and decide to follow just ½ my trading plan. I doesn’t work out so I sweep the result under the carpet and will repeat the same error tomorrow
14. I decide mid way through a trade that this trade is a super bet and I double my stake, only to get wiped out by the mad spiker
15. I attempt to trade in 2 directions during the same session, something that is not in my current trading plan
16. I just traded an All Weather race, despite my plan saying that my edge is not there in such races
17. I had to leave my PC mid trade for water/lunch/a phone call and missed my Exit point. My Stop triggered. I swear and get upset (see 4 above)
18. I never seem to learn from my mistakes and I repeat 9 above the next day
19. I have 4 losses in a row and I begin to have doubts about my trading plan. I make a minor untested adjustment and the next race becomes a loser instead of a winner
20. I get bored because 99% of the time I am either waiting for an Entry or an Exit, so I have a few speculative bets to keep me amused. They lose.
21. I move my stop loss further away because immediately I Entered my trade, the market moved against me. I reckon it will come back. It doesn’t.
22. I have made my daily target but this one last race looks appetising. The trade is a loser and I hate finishing the day on a losing trade. I decide to allow the trade to go in running, the horse wins and I have lost my whole days profit
23. This Irish market is very volatile and I am unsure about my Entry. I go ahead and the trade fails. I try to avoid all volatile markets in future only to later discover that avoiding Irish markets was the right thing to do
24. I lost money last Saturday, so I no longer trade on Saturdays
25. My wife calls out whilst I am in mid trade; it seems she has fallen from the loft and is hanging from her fingertips. Am I a trader or a fireman?
This (almost) penultimate post is based on my own experiences as a trainee trader and although some of these will not apply to yourself, at this time, care should be taken to fully understand why we act in the human way we do when operating a mechanical system.
1. I am/was a gambler at heart but I have learnt that pre race trading is not about making a quick kill and success is measured by the slow and steady accumulation and compounding of wealth.
2. I do not follow my plan/my plan isn’t specific enough (triggers are interpretive rather than factual)/my trading plan has no “edge” and is not delivering
3. When I face a losing trade, I deviate from my plan; anything to avoid taking a small loss. Sometimes I double up my losing trades, go in running or back/lay the horse I was trading
4. I sometimes trade when I feel ill, hungover or stressed when my reactions are compromised. I often miss Entry and Exit points during those times.
5. I sometimes make a mistake in following my plan and back instead of lay, fail to obey all the rules of my plan, press the wrong button etc
6. I get distracted or interrupted during trading and miss out on the juiciest trade of the day. That soccer match I was following also lost me money. I am now depressed (see 4 above).
7. I get angry when I make a mistake or when a trade goes against me and my next few trades are affected
8. I overtrade by seeing opportunities that are not in my plan. They mostly lose, I lose concentration and now I am getting stressed (see 4 above).
9. I freeze and fail to trigger my entry point because I’m watching the TV pictures and can see my horse bucking, crapping and neighing (as horses do!)
10. I miss my Entry or Exit point because my computer freezes on another window I was distractedly looking at, my ISP crashes, my electricity is cut etc
11. I practise yoga during a trading session and fall asleep at the wheel
12. I start trading with some of my BA settings wrong because I forgot to reset them after last nights tennis trading session
13. I am late getting to a race and decide to follow just ½ my trading plan. I doesn’t work out so I sweep the result under the carpet and will repeat the same error tomorrow
14. I decide mid way through a trade that this trade is a super bet and I double my stake, only to get wiped out by the mad spiker
15. I attempt to trade in 2 directions during the same session, something that is not in my current trading plan
16. I just traded an All Weather race, despite my plan saying that my edge is not there in such races
17. I had to leave my PC mid trade for water/lunch/a phone call and missed my Exit point. My Stop triggered. I swear and get upset (see 4 above)
18. I never seem to learn from my mistakes and I repeat 9 above the next day
19. I have 4 losses in a row and I begin to have doubts about my trading plan. I make a minor untested adjustment and the next race becomes a loser instead of a winner
20. I get bored because 99% of the time I am either waiting for an Entry or an Exit, so I have a few speculative bets to keep me amused. They lose.
21. I move my stop loss further away because immediately I Entered my trade, the market moved against me. I reckon it will come back. It doesn’t.
22. I have made my daily target but this one last race looks appetising. The trade is a loser and I hate finishing the day on a losing trade. I decide to allow the trade to go in running, the horse wins and I have lost my whole days profit
23. This Irish market is very volatile and I am unsure about my Entry. I go ahead and the trade fails. I try to avoid all volatile markets in future only to later discover that avoiding Irish markets was the right thing to do
24. I lost money last Saturday, so I no longer trade on Saturdays
25. My wife calls out whilst I am in mid trade; it seems she has fallen from the loft and is hanging from her fingertips. Am I a trader or a fireman?
Hi James,
I agree with the previous poster who said a lot of this is baloney!
While you do make some very good points you also make a lot of irrelevent ones. There is a lot of differences between sports trading and the stock market. Some of the pointers used on the stock market are no good on the sports exchanges and can really confuse a beginner.
I'm of the opinion that either you have just copied and pasted all your points from somewhere or you just dont really have a clue about sports trading, as illustrated more than once by your mention of the dreaded 3 letter word 'TAX'
If there were tax involved in this type of venture nobody would be trading.
I also take exception to the point you made in your very first post about reading through all the posts on this forum and finding no advice for newbie traders, there is plenty. Also I have never seen anybody posting a 6 figure P/L on this forum (On blogs yes but with the exception of one or two they're mostly BS) Also I dont think BA has ever promised to turn anybody into a trader overnight with the promise of riches.
While I do agree with you that there are a lot of cowboys out there offering dodgy systems and advice I can say from personal experience that BA isn't one of them. I dont pretend to make huge sums of money but I do make enough to be comfortable and to be able to trade full time.
At the end of the day if you purchase any trading software and expect to make loadsa' money straight off then you are obviously lacking in the brains dept... If you really read through this forum you will see time after time people offering advice to start off using minimum stakes and get a feel for the market before using larger sums of money.
To all you newbies who seem to agree with James' comments and are studying his tips there is no substitute for experience so rather than trying to extract some info on becoming a better trader just deposit a tenner into your account and trade using minimum stakes until you have a feel for how the market moves, cut down on your mistakes and feel confident enough to use larger sums of money.
Finally James, have you considered starting up your own blog to post all your thoughts? Maybe there you'll find the adoration you seek.
Yours,
A Satisfied Trader
I agree with the previous poster who said a lot of this is baloney!
While you do make some very good points you also make a lot of irrelevent ones. There is a lot of differences between sports trading and the stock market. Some of the pointers used on the stock market are no good on the sports exchanges and can really confuse a beginner.
I'm of the opinion that either you have just copied and pasted all your points from somewhere or you just dont really have a clue about sports trading, as illustrated more than once by your mention of the dreaded 3 letter word 'TAX'
If there were tax involved in this type of venture nobody would be trading.
I also take exception to the point you made in your very first post about reading through all the posts on this forum and finding no advice for newbie traders, there is plenty. Also I have never seen anybody posting a 6 figure P/L on this forum (On blogs yes but with the exception of one or two they're mostly BS) Also I dont think BA has ever promised to turn anybody into a trader overnight with the promise of riches.
While I do agree with you that there are a lot of cowboys out there offering dodgy systems and advice I can say from personal experience that BA isn't one of them. I dont pretend to make huge sums of money but I do make enough to be comfortable and to be able to trade full time.
At the end of the day if you purchase any trading software and expect to make loadsa' money straight off then you are obviously lacking in the brains dept... If you really read through this forum you will see time after time people offering advice to start off using minimum stakes and get a feel for the market before using larger sums of money.
To all you newbies who seem to agree with James' comments and are studying his tips there is no substitute for experience so rather than trying to extract some info on becoming a better trader just deposit a tenner into your account and trade using minimum stakes until you have a feel for how the market moves, cut down on your mistakes and feel confident enough to use larger sums of money.
Finally James, have you considered starting up your own blog to post all your thoughts? Maybe there you'll find the adoration you seek.
Yours,
A Satisfied Trader
-
enzabella2009
- Posts: 747
- Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:58 pm
I dont believe he copied and pasted all his points. He reconized the fibonacci series on the spot. he must have some kind of aknowledge with numbers and mental strenght needed to be a trader. You may not pay TAXes over UK but, UK isn`t the whole world. I pay taxes over sporting tradings and the illegal betfair fee charges. Everything i did not declared in the past I will have to face a settlement in the future when I will be found out guilty by the Italian tax-revenue officers.Relax, I won`t be facing jail, I have to simply, once caught, declare the ammount and accept a payment settlement with 75% discount over the whole sum of money.RafterP wrote:I'm of the opinion that either you have just copied and pasted all your points from somewhere or you just dont really have a clue about sports trading, as illustrated more than once by your mention of the dreaded 3 letter word 'TAX'
If there were tax involved in this type of venture nobody would be trading.
I believe BA is not a dodgy system, for what I know is one of the best around. My only concerns came from the training videos on you tube but I would not appreaciate to be attacked by several lions, so I stop there.
James1st please do carry on, end the final part of your post it very interesting.