Betfair trading strategies : Newbies Trading in the Dark

Interested in learning to trade on Betfair. Check out this section for advice, knowledge and discussion on trading strategies.
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Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:12 am

Mugs

I'll state at the outset that I appreciate that you put a lot of time and effort into providing quality guidance to Betfair traders.

What I wrote wasn't meant to offend. It was meant as a constructive and honest assessment (something you yourself are very good at providing):

- I don't want newbies to waste hours trying to scrape hidden meaning into a pro's posts.

- I also don't want them losing money from trying to emulate a pro because they think they know what the pro does even when they don't.

I maintain that no pro will reveal in public their exact methods (with the possible exception of your good self), as to do so risks ruining their own edge. So what you're left with is partial ingredients to baking a cake. That can be useful if the newbie uses it as a basis for further research and theorizing about the dynamics of the market. However, I think you and I both know that most people don't want to put in any effort - they want a messiah who will give them the formula to making £500 a day with little or no effort, and that ain't gonna happen. That's all I was saying.

Jeff
mugsgame wrote:
Ferru123 wrote:
Also, what makes you think that you'll necessarily be able to profit from the pro's methods? Unless they show you exactly what they do (they won't), you may well end up missing the vital ingredient(s).

Jeff
I find this offensive

PeterLe
Posts: 3346
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:29 am

[quote="Ferru123"]
I maintain that no pro will reveal in public their exact methods, as to do so will ruin their own edge.
[quote="Ferru123"]

Hi Jeff,
I think you're right in 99.9% of the cases. I dont consider myself a pro as such, but I certainly wouldn't disclose my auto methods. Ill give hints and genuine suggestions as to how people can find their own and refine and strengthen them, but not full blown step by step instructions
However, Mugs is the other 0.1%, he genuinely does give his methods. I dont think there is anyone out there on the net that compares? In developing the manual side of my trading, Ive learned a lot just from watching his videos.
I can only imagine how much effort he puts in, but I know he gets immense satisfaction from helping people out there.
regards
Peter

Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:38 am

Hi Peter

After I wrote my original post, I edited it to add 'with the possible exception of your good self', as on reflection Mugs genuinely doesn't seem to hold anything back.

However - and I don't mean this as a criticism of Mugs - I don't know whether he himself is consciously aware of why he does everything he does. I get the impression that a lot of it is based on instinct and judgement, making it hard to emulate his methods.

That said, if a newbie approaches Mugs's videos with the mindset of 'what ideas can I learn from this guy?', and then goes away and investigates whether they can learn how to profit from a particular idea or market principle, then it could help them. I think people seeking a simple formula to make £500 a day will be disappointed, but in fairness to Mugs, he doesn't pretend that there is a road to easy riches (quite the opposite).

Jeff

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mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:57 am

I think we are singing from the same hymn sheet actually Jeff if you put it like that.

I am 100% with PeterLe regarding the automated stuff. It's so difficult to come up with the winning strategies, and they soon disappear. I have 1 or 2 myself that I wouldn't give away (or sell).

But for "normal" trading it's different. I think you are spot on when you say about hidden meaning in "pros" posts. That's why I go to such lengths to over explain everything I do. I am sure it drives some people mad. But if you go into as much detail as you can it gives some confidence to others that what you are actually saying is correct.

I am also sure that some just will never have the correct temperament for it. At one time I mentored someone to the point they made £50k in 12 months. They then thought they knew better than me and spunked the lot up the wall in weeks. That was all do with the mental side of trading. You can give the technical triggers and all the indicators in the world. But you cannot be there to pull the trigger. For me thats the difference between making it and not. The difference is much smaller than you think. Like any professional in any walk of life. It's the small details that make the big difference.

My Brother is a HGV technician. He can hardly read or write. But he has an incredible ability to fix anything mechanical. If I said to him "turn on my PC" he wouldn't know where to begin. A few years back I was trying to get a bolt undone on my bike. I had turned the head into a mangled mess. The only way to get it out was remove the engine and strip it. He comes along and called me a few names (he gets his tact from me) then just undoes the nut in 2 seconds (still swearing at me). He knew the techniques and had the right temperament to undo it. I had lost my rag and butchered it. - I didn't have the skill or the correct attitude.

Back to your point Jeff. For me there is no "secret" ladder trading. I can give out every single piece of knowledge I have (which i pretty much do) - But there is no edge - it's about interpretation. The mechanical levers that trigger a trade can be given. It's how you interpret that. I agree that it may be out of some peoples reach (no disrespect to them - There are a million things out of my reach) but having the knowledge to try is better than no knowledge at all.

Sorry - rambling again :) Group hug Jeff - no offence taken we all good fella :)

Groovyelms
Posts: 273
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 7:42 am

Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:31 am

mugs wrote in last post:-

"Back to your point Jeff. For me there is no "secret" ladder trading. I can give out every single piece of knowledge I have (which i pretty much do) - But there is no edge - it's about interpretation. The mechanical levers that trigger a trade can be given. It's how you interpret that. I agree that it may be out of some peoples reach (no disrespect to them - There are a million things out of my reach) but having the knowledge to try is better than no knowledge at all" :?:

This paragraph says it all to me...thanks Mugs
groovy

PeterLe
Posts: 3346
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:43 am

People look and interpret things differently too.
This is a true story. I once worked in a design office (junior), and I was trying to get my head around the maclaurin series :-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_ser ... _functions
Heavy stuff (well it was for me)..
The guy I shared the office with had a Phd and was genuinely intelligent.
He took my pen off me and scribbled on an A4 pad explaining what the series meant and how to apply it. I was like a rabbit in the headlights, I couldn't comprehend it.
A couple of hours later i saw him (unusually) with his head in his hands..I asked him what the problem was and he told me he was building a fence at home and was trying to work out how deep to dig the holes for the posts/concrete. After discussing how high the fence would be, I suggested "about "18 inches should do it". he said " How do you know that will be enough" I said "I just know' . he said " can you prove it", I said "No, but I know it will work"
He spent the next hour trying to work it out mathematically?!

Two people can be given the exact same scenario and take completely different paths. I told him exactly what to do but he didn't believe me.

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mugsgame
Posts: 1235
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:07 pm

Thats a good one Peter.
My nephew is Autistic. He is 14 and talks to about complex Physics and looks at me as if he thinks I am a 5 year old when it's obvious i haven't the slightest clue what he is talking about. But he was at my Mothers last Sunday crying because he couldn't butter a piece of toast properly.

We are just all wired up differently.

I am convinced that trading is just pattern recognition. How many times have we seen those puzzle type pictures that different people see different things in?

Online Trader
Posts: 186
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2010 7:13 am
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Sat Mar 01, 2014 12:25 pm

I think I have said this before to Steve..... IMHO he falls into the "freak of nature" category along with Peter... this is not an insult and is meant as a compliment :D

There are probably other on this Forum too that fall into that category.

I truly believe that there are only a very select few that can trade at the levels that these guys do and that all the coaching/training in the world may never get you to that level unless you have that "natural instinct".

Most footballers would like to be as good as Messi and Ronaldo but do you think that they could coach other players to be as good as them?

hgodden
Posts: 1759
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:13 pm

Sat Mar 01, 2014 1:48 pm

Some interesting posts here recently.

Funny to see the football analogy as I was about to post one of my own. I think it's true you may never be Messi or Ronaldo but many players with much less natural 'talent' have made great careers out of finding their own niches', think Makelele, Carragher etc. Vinny Jones made a succesful career in two seperate industries in which I'd say, to be kind to him, he had little to know exceptional talent whatsoever! Although of course, making the most out of what you have may be a talent in itself.

I think that some things do come naturally better to some that others though, especially when it comes to trading styles. In the same way it would be impossible to teach Messi to become a centre back, and most centre backs to become forwards, it may be impossible to teach most people to trade in ways that are unnatural to them. Of course there are the odd exception like Ruud Gullit.

PS Actually don't think Carragher, if you're anything like me it might put you off your lunch.

scalpy123
Posts: 6
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2012 11:11 am

Sat Mar 01, 2014 2:37 pm

Hi James,
I like your post as it does show what you you need to consider when trading. I have a good knowledge of horse racing and only select certain "races" to trade.
But I still think that the Bet Angel team could be more helpful.We are using their software to get that "edge".
When the odds are moving down on a favourite quickly and if Bet Angel can be automated to place a BACK bet and then the lay bet one tick less (faster than we can do manually)surely it is not too much to ask for an example of this automation. Yes I\we could keep try ourselves and use the practice mode to see if it works but if it does not surely we should be able to ask for help.
I am not asking them to disclose their main strategies from their Master class tutorials but a little help goes a long way.
Keep on with your informative posts.
Learning something new every day.
Max.

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