Cut Your Losses?? (Mean Reversion)

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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GaryCook
Posts: 124
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:35 pm

True, I need to get better with trading and do that more than gambling. I think it hard to read the markets though and knowing when to get in or out at the right times.

I bet some of you had a cracker with that 2-1 today. :)
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Where have you been for the last four months? ;)
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wearthefoxhat
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Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

PeterLe wrote:
Thu Mar 13, 2014 11:34 am
LeTiss 4pm wrote:Blimey, 4 years ago...........
Its passed quick hasn't it! :D
Do you think we will still be here in another four years mate?
....If so, Ill reply to this post in march 2018! :D
Well, we're still here! :shock:
PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 8:18 pm
PeterLe wrote:
Thu Mar 13, 2014 11:34 am
LeTiss 4pm wrote:Blimey, 4 years ago...........
Its passed quick hasn't it! :D
Do you think we will still be here in another four years mate?
....If so, Ill reply to this post in march 2018! :D
Well, we're still here! :shock:
Wow over nine years since the original post!
And I'm still running compare/contrast strategies between accounts.
If the original tests were run on todays markets i wouldnt be surprised to see similar results

One thing I have changed since those days is that I dont green up anymore. In my experience, this gave me better results (even greening at reverse is out)
Maybe Ill post on this again in another 10 years (December 2029) , I wonder how many of us will be around then! :D
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Kai
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Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Brilliant, you guys are my real inspiration 👍

Can't imagine anything harder than achieving such longevity in these markets.
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abgespaced
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Location: Australia

Well, because this post was bumped I'll chime in. Now that I feel I've got some kind of trading sense, "cutting your losses" to me means that I've made the wrong decision and the true value is now being reflected in the market price in opposition to what I thought the value was. It doesn't necessarily mean the price has gone against me after taking a position. The price often goes against me after taking a position, because the market is on the wrong side of the true value. So I hold my nerve and wait for a correction. But if I really have go it wrong, some signs will show and I will close out.
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Thebest147
Posts: 93
Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:01 am

If your opening order is taken quickly and it moves against you your on the wrong side and cut,
There aren't to many dummies playing on betfair you have to assume they know move the you,
Vaz0202
Posts: 158
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:53 pm

I started trialing a new system this weekend and I noticed my stop losses were taken before my trades. I watched the market carefully. The price then came in. This happened again over the next 5 events. Price came in.

Had there been no stop loss, all my trades would have gone green, and then some.

When automating, it is difficult to place that red exit
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Vaz0202 wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 8:32 pm
I started trialing a new system this weekend and I noticed my stop losses were taken before my trades. I watched the market carefully. The price then came in. This happened again over the next 5 events. Price came in.

Had there been no stop loss, all my trades would have gone green, and then some.

When automating, it is difficult to place that red exit
You've discovered the issue with stop losses, they don't give you any advantage, and over time they break even at best.

I suggest you simply approach each bet with the same thought process, a reason to back and a reason to lay. That reason is never that you're £x up or down because the market doesn't know or care about that, so therefore you shouldn't. The market also doesn't care if you're opening a position or closing one, so respond to the market rather than considering what bets you happened to have some time before. I automate too, and the logic is just to bet, bet ,bet whatever side is appropriate, and then at the end, hedge any outstanding positions if there are any.
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sIGNAL
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Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2023 5:32 am

Interesting thread and tallys up with my stop loss experiment on my IR horse bot I've been dabbling with. I figured out today before seeing this thread that the stop losses (tried various types and different exits) actually gave a worse P&L.
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firlandsfarm
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Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

I don't use Stop Losses, I have a similar thought as Shaun. If for example you back at 5.00 and set a stop loss for 6.00 then if your stop loss fires you are effectively saying laying the runner at 6.00 is a good price ... that being so why did you back it at 5.00! You are looking for the point that if it drops to Y it's on a trend and will not recover.
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jamesedwards
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:42 pm
I have a similar thought as Shaun....
Speaking of which, where is Shaun? Not been on the forum for three weeks. :!:
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Kai
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Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

jamesedwards wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2023 4:26 pm
firlandsfarm wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:42 pm
I have a similar thought as Shaun....
Speaking of which, where is Shaun? Not been on the forum for three weeks. :!:
Probably taking a political detox

If we're considering sending out a search party already I propose to not send Dex and FF
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jamesedwards
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Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Kai wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2023 8:06 pm
jamesedwards wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2023 4:26 pm
firlandsfarm wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:42 pm
I have a similar thought as Shaun....
Speaking of which, where is Shaun? Not been on the forum for three weeks. :!:
Probably taking a political detox
Sounds like a good idea.
senti
Posts: 7
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2022 12:39 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:30 am
Traders generally use much larger percentages of their capital to trade than gamblers so if you let the bet run you're just trusting a large chunk of your capital to luck, which defeats the object of trying to make money trading.
I've found this to be true.

With betting my level of control is low so I have to mitigate it with small stakes and a high volume of bets.

With trading live my level of control is high since I'm more reactive to the behaviour of the market. Rather than a fixed stop loss, there are certainly moments when I know I should get out to not ruin the risk to reward in a short period of time. And yes even if it's +EV in the long run I will get out because my risk is too high to let it run, simple as that. I'm trading the moment, so the time frame is crucial. I will not turn my trading into betting. I treat them as different businesses.

As I trader I don't want to "pay" for the bad moments in the market. But when I bet I'm willing to do that, but the risk will be reduced.
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