Losing strategies wanted

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

marko236 wrote:His losing strategy is so good you can probably do the exact opposite and make money? That's what i think.
That true, but it also does it by using an exploit. So I don't think it's sensible to expose that. I wont be using it.
marko236
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Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:54 am

Euler wrote:
marko236 wrote:His losing strategy is so good you can probably do the exact opposite and make money? That's what i think.
That true, but it also does it by using an exploit. So I don't think it's sensible to expose that. I wont be using it.
Would it be wrong for us to try and work out the exploit? I have an idea of what it is and i could post it in a way that doesn't show exactly how it's done, my idea could be way wrong thou.
steven1976
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Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am

I don't have stats on this but Im certain this strategy would lose money.

Choose any horse at any time pre off, using 10 pound stakes but a single offer into the market at the best reverse price either side of the book. Don't put any other orders into the market that could influence the first position. Wait to be matched. Then offer the offset, if the price moves away from the first order sell out immediately for a 1 tick loss. If the offset is matched repeat. I don't have stats but I'm quite sure this will lose money regular?
Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Hi Steven

I'm pretty sure that commission would be the only thing to stop it breaking even. :)

Jeff
steven1976
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Try it on a horse about 10s. Your thinking that as a result of a race it would break even over time. Put a 10 pound back or lay into the market and do nothing else other than sell out when the next move happens either against you or with you for 1 tick. You may be surprised how random, random really is.
NinjaLizard
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Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 9:04 am

Here is a very simple football time decay strategy that I've used with quite a lot of success however I'm almost certain it would show a loss long term. Basically if there's not loads happening in the game you back the current situation for example if its 0-0 you would back 0-0 or if there's been less than 2.5 goals in the game You back under 2.5 goals, wait 2-10 minutes hope the situation doesn't change then hedge out. Backing 0-0 pre kick off has given me some quite impressive green screens barely 2 minutes into the game but that goal in the first 3 minutes is going to be the killer for this strategy. Being very selective and doing your homework probably wont help avoid this either as I firmly believe that those first minute goals you see more often than you realise are near impossible to predict.
marko236
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Joined: Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:54 am

How about when the market is in a non value postion for a back bet,start using as much money as you can to push the market down into an even worse value postion and try and hold the market in that postion untill you have used all your money and then let the market move back to the correct odds and then try and lay your money for a loss.
NinjaLizard
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Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 9:04 am

And anyone watching the Chelsea game and employing this strategy would have just lost a full back stake haha almost a goal after 1m then a goal after 1m30seconds a half decent yet losing strategy I believe...
marko236
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NinjaLizard wrote:And anyone watching the Chelsea game and employing this strategy would have just lost a full back stake haha almost a goal after 1m then a goal after 1m30seconds a half decent yet losing strategy I believe...
It would work better pre match.
NinjaLizard
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Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 9:04 am

marko236 wrote:
NinjaLizard wrote:And anyone watching the Chelsea game and employing this strategy would have just lost a full back stake haha almost a goal after 1m then a goal after 1m30seconds a half decent yet losing strategy I believe...
It would work better pre match.
yeah in most games it does but backing 0-0 prematch would only have worked in this case if you were scalping a tick as the goal was so early in the game. But this strategy aims for a little more than just 1 tick, hence me posting it in the "losing strategies wanted" thread ;) it's these early goals that I believe make this strategy a losing one.
NinjaLizard
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Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 9:04 am

And yet another early goal in the arsenal game tonight 1m30s again :lol: has to be a losing strategy...
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

And Liverpool
NinjaLizard
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Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 9:04 am

Yeah I saw that too. Can't help but think backing under 2.5 goals is a lot safer than backing 0-0 or maybe backing over 2.5/3.5 as well as backing 0-0 could provide a little bit of insurance or even a double whammy if you get out of the 0-0 at the right time.
threedogs
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:24 am

I have a cracking losing strategy
Join Brimardon and back every bet they recommend
You will soon be £5000 down just like i was
Seriously learn from Peter at Betangel, keep it simple use small stakes to start learn how to lose and never trade in running always before the race and you will profit
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Crazyskier
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Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

Blindly automating the best back price (+1) on the favourite greyhound is resulting consistently in the eventual matched price then shortening. This is 7 minutes prior to the off right upto the point at which the bet is matched.

I have been caught by this SO many times; the lack of liquidity and ability to move prices so radically with just £20 stakes is the issue...
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