Betfair trading strategies : Building A Strategy

Interested in learning to trade on Betfair. Check out this section for advice, knowledge and discussion on trading strategies.
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PeterLe
Posts: 3325
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Wed Dec 05, 2012 5:07 pm

I can see from the forum that the new automation feature within Betangel has taken off.
In light of this and various posts by Peter on his Blog including (http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2012/03 ... -part-one/) , I thought i would just share something I am doing in this area and hopefully it will offer a ray of light to those still looking for it. Quite often when you are new to trading its hard to know in which way to go. Whilst I wont say exactly what I'm doing, I just want to show the newbies that it is possible to make some money this way..an offer an insight as to how to go about it..

There are many ways of making money off Betfair, but the holy Grail if you like, is to find a system that is scaleable, the only area on the ladder that is truly scaleable is very low down in the odds (or heavy liquid markets such as the football etc).
Herein lies another problem. Everyday as the markets are created, the lay money at 1.01 seems to arrive with a five fig sum instantaneous, so you can never get to the front of the queue. If you place your bets here you will be guaranteed losing your money if the selection wins, but not be guaranteed to get ALL your money matched if the price touches 1.01 and the selection goes on to lose.
If you take 1.02 then you can get your money near the front of the queue but that 0.01 increment costs you twice as much in terms of stake money, so then you have to have a better strike rate etc to become profitable..a vicious circle...

I recently started to look more in this area and created a basic system (i used Excel, but you could use the rules instead, its nothing fancy). It places the pre off bets during the night (keeping a close eye on the transactions so they dont exceed 1000). This system is not my main trading, but think of it more of a supplement, it doesn't run during normal hours, so doesn't compromise my 20Req/Sec.

If you read the forum you will know that as long as your idea is 'reasonable' and thought out, then betting at random will be near enough break even..so you wont lose big time.
With this trial system I am running, I set it up on a separate betfair account solely used for this strategy so the P&L data would be pure.
I then interrogate the data periodically, and for that I used the NigelK spreadsheet (available on the forum), this is a great tool and you will quickly be able to spot patterns. certain courses you will be making good profits, others (where you have guys standing on the finish line with their Ipads) you may not!, Then simply refine your strategy by not betting on those courses. Alternately you may find that certain distance races are more profitable etc
Equally, on the courses/distance etc you are doing well at, increase your stakes slightly (there is always an element of luck involved too, so dont increase your stakes too much!).
In the spreadsheet I developed, it collects the data from Nigels spreadsheet (via a lookup command) and determines whether to place a bet or not. very simple but works a treat, and almost on auto pilot.

At the outset of this strategy I started using proform to provide me with various stats on each course etc, you dont have to go this far, but I find that the more you research and plan your strategy the more chance you will have of succeeding. I know there are other people on here doing similar things

I started this one with a small bank of £200, 7500 races ago and the P&L has risen slowly. Truth is, I still dont know 100% if it will be successful, only time will tell, but it is looking ok
If you look at the graph, after 14 days it was negative by -£29 and there have been big swings up and down in between. Dont give up too early and remember that its almost as effective to strike out your losing bets as it is to have big winning bets and large losses. If you look at the graph you should be able to see where I made some key changes! (keep a note of what you are doing and when so you can review). Ie make a change; did it work if not go back and change something else etc
As it gets refined I expect the theses big bumps will start to even out. Its all about honing and refining.
I also have a great idea for this particular strategy, which I will implement in March next year when the racing gets going again properly. So good to get a basic system in place and then add to it over time.
This strategy is on horse racing but there is nothing to stop you trying other markets too, Greyhounds, Motor Sport darts etc..there are lots of opportunities.

Hope it encourages some of the new guys you to try something new and not give up too easily?

regards
Peter
By the way; on paper and from what I have read, this system should only break even (and it may turn out to do). Some of my best strategies stated out this way and if all else fails, you will learn lots by it, good luck

Edit: Some of the more experienced folk, please add comments, always keen to learn!
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Last edited by PeterLe on Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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LeTiss
Posts: 4168
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:47 pm

I'm a little surprised a few newbies haven't gratefully responded. Then again Peter, I'm not

You haven't given specifics on exactly what you do!! Too many novices don't seem to realise the hard work that goes into this, they just want you to share your secrets

Seymour
Posts: 40
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 6:33 pm

Wed Dec 05, 2012 7:19 pm

Thanks Peter, a great post! There is so little on this forum concerning innovative strategy design that it often leaves newbies such as myself fluffing around and scratching their heads. If I am to take anything from your post it is the crucial awareness that I need to re-apply myself to a rigid system of testing potential strategies instead of merely winning ticks.

Its also nice to know that there are still ways to profit from BF. My enthusiasm has received a boost.

regards
Jon

Seymour
Posts: 40
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2012 6:33 pm

Wed Dec 05, 2012 7:35 pm

Le Tiss,

Sorry, but I dont think your being fair towards all newcomers with your blanket comment. If profiting from Betfair was easy then it would have little value in pursuing. The fact that it is hard and much work required gives it it's value. I for one wouldnt have it any other way. Perhaps this is the basis of the issue with those who do seem to just want things handed on a plate. Our education systems no longer teach the value of achieving reward through hard work.
I'll stop here as I am starting to sound like a bitter old fool. :lol:


Jon :)

PeterLe
Posts: 3325
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:32 pm

Hi Jon,
I think LeTiss and myself have seen many people come and go over the years and it does wear you down a bit when people just expect to load betfair up and make a thousand a day! hard work is the only way.

When I first started on here I just wanted confirmation that it was possible to make some of the figures shown in the various Blog P&L's. I got some good help from people on here who took time to tell me that it was.

These days it is hard to make decent money, but it is still possible, and I just wanted to show that. You just have to be one step in front of the masses. Good luck!

regards
Peter

haichless
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 5:04 pm

Wed Dec 05, 2012 9:51 pm

many thanks peterle, its nice that you should share, and try and light a path without actually directing, as for LeTiss, watching his posts from afar, he does do the community here and traders in general, a great diservice, if all were like him, the world would be a much diminished place. Apologies I take as I read.
Thanks again PeterLe

PeterLe
Posts: 3325
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:49 pm

Hi H,
Thanks for that
I think a couple of the early posts on this thread was taken out of context. In fairness, LeTiss has been around a long time and is a good guy. I've certainly made a few bob on the back of some of his suggestions. Anyway as I say, somethings are not always as read and can come across wrong.
regards
Peter

Alpha322
Posts: 807
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:45 pm

Thu Dec 06, 2012 5:41 am

haichless wrote: as for LeTiss, watching his posts from afar, he does do the community here and traders in general, a great diservice, if all were like him, the world would be a much diminished place. Apologies I take as I read.
Thanks again PeterLe
Really well i back LeTiss all the way, because people do come on here expecting the holly Grail and do not want to create it by spending their hard earned and taking the rough, we all had to. The only questions i asked on here when i started was about the software functions, i done £1000 in one wrong button hit, that hurt made me want to give up but i thought positive and created my own strategy by reading putting bits together watching videos, studying money management (my bank has grown and stayed in tact for 14 months) with some withdrawals. It wasnt given to me in my lap all LeTiss is trying to get across is that 95% want it in their lap from traders who have gone through the mill to get profitable, well you know what if your not prepared to go through the mill on your own you will always lose, people can give y ou advice but what they do will most probably work for you, i know many traders who make shed loads of cash trading in play (not for me) they lose very big when they do lose
Think about it i would one stepover a mine field like someone else would

Good luck :P

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LeTiss
Posts: 4168
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Thu Dec 06, 2012 8:26 am

My apologies for offending anyone, I seem to have touched a nerve with a couple of posters

I've been here for a few years, and have lost count of the people who expect you to share your strategies, so they can do as little as possible for £200 per day, or whatever amount they're after

I even turned off my private messages facility due to being bombarded for specifics on my activities

giulio2010
Posts: 962
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am

Thu Dec 06, 2012 9:33 am

LeTiss 4pm wrote:I'm a little surprised a few newbies haven't gratefully responded
I write entire pages (that no one understands' cause my english) :lol: :lol: :lol: but with clear guidance on what to do on some football market, having also a very active record, but you did not write this for me .. :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:
... :oops: :oops: :evil: :evil:
I am jelous...

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