Betfair trading strategies : Building A Strategy

Interested in learning to trade on Betfair. Check out this section for advice, knowledge and discussion on trading strategies.
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Derek27
Posts: 8747
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:27 pm

GaryCook wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:26 am
...I am not expecting to make any money per
I don't think anyone would expect you to make money, especially if you're botting virtual races.

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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2015
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:45 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:27 pm
I don't think anyone would expect you to make money, especially if you're botting virtual races.
What about if the coding was predictable?

A 2.0 fav will win, lose, win, lose, win, lose etc

There was a study done, where professional statisticians had to pick random data from non-random - & they were consistently biased by "non-streaky data" (i.e. they consistently assumed data with streaks was non-random). Perhaps the coders on the virtual races are too, never know

LinusP
Posts: 1741
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm
Contact:

Mon Jul 23, 2018 6:59 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:45 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:27 pm
I don't think anyone would expect you to make money, especially if you're botting virtual races.
What about if the coding was predictable?

A 2.0 fav will win, lose, win, lose, win, lose etc

There was a study done, where professional statisticians had to pick random data from non-random - & they were consistently biased by "non-streaky data" (i.e. they consistently assumed data with streaks was non-random). Perhaps the coders on the virtual races are too, never know
It’s all audited:

http://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/fo ... oring.aspx

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Derek27
Posts: 8747
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:04 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:45 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:27 pm
I don't think anyone would expect you to make money, especially if you're botting virtual races.
What about if the coding was predictable?

A 2.0 fav will win, lose, win, lose, win, lose etc

There was a study done, where professional statisticians had to pick random data from non-random - & they were consistently biased by "non-streaky data" (i.e. they consistently assumed data with streaks was non-random). Perhaps the coders on the virtual races are too, never know
You always have to throw a spanner in the works! :lol:

Virtual racing is bound to be randomised with the odds against you and of all the available sports where it's possible to win to choose from, why pick virtual racing?

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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2015
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:55 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:04 pm
Virtual racing is bound to be randomised with the odds against you and of all the available sports where it's possible to win to choose from, why pick virtual racing?
I wouldn't do it because, BF would quickly plug any hole in a dodgy algorithm. & the effort it'd take to understand how the algo's worked would be a complete nightmare.

But I am fascinated by virtual markets - literally, thousands can be made in excel, which can then be compared to the real data - & where they differ, is arguably, very interesting "seed" info :)

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Derek27
Posts: 8747
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:35 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:55 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:04 pm
Virtual racing is bound to be randomised with the odds against you and of all the available sports where it's possible to win to choose from, why pick virtual racing?
I wouldn't do it because, BF would quickly plug any hole in a dodgy algorithm. & the effort it'd take to understand how the algo's worked would be a complete nightmare.

But I am fascinated by virtual markets - literally, thousands can be made in excel, which can then be compared to the real data - & where they differ, is arguably, very interesting "seed" info :)
I can't imagine Betfair having a dodgy algorithm in the first place.

Even on the old BBC Micro you could get a seed from the clock timer which can't be predicted. I'm sure randomization methods have improved since then.

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GaryCook
Posts: 120
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:35 pm

Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:33 am

Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:27 pm
GaryCook wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:26 am
...I am not expecting to make any money per
I don't think anyone would expect you to make money, especially if you're botting virtual races.
Your childish insult says more about you than it does me and I made around 10k in two months from doing that before they updated their algo.

Not a lot of money for me but it was on autopilot while I worked on something else.

Nero Tulip
Posts: 664
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm

Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:04 am

Ambiguity of new input into this thread aside... I have a great story about botting virtual races, but it's best left to the originator to tell properly one day. Suffice to say, betfair's old offering was not efficient ! They stopped using it quite a while ago. Their newer offering doesn't look interesting.

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Derek27
Posts: 8747
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:58 pm

GaryCook wrote:
Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:33 am
Derek27 wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:27 pm
GaryCook wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 8:26 am
...I am not expecting to make any money per
I don't think anyone would expect you to make money, especially if you're botting virtual races.
Your childish insult says more about you than it does me and I made around 10k in two months from doing that before they updated their algo.

Not a lot of money for me but it was on autopilot while I worked on something else.
I'm sorry if that caused any offence, but I really don't see anything childish or insulting in that post, and it's taken you over two months to feel insulted!

PeterLe
Posts: 3580
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:25 pm

Nero Tulip wrote:
Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:04 am
Ambiguity of new input into this thread aside... I have a great story about botting virtual races, but it's best left to the originator to tell properly one day. Suffice to say, betfair's old offering was not efficient ! They stopped using it quite a while ago. Their newer offering doesn't look interesting.
Nero, That's a cliff hanger! Id love to know more!

(Incidentally Nero, just wanted to mention, you replied to one of my posts April 2009.., I was simply asking how to clear the status cells in Excel. Your reply (in which you posted the code) set me off on a journey, that made a lot of money for my family and two close friends.
So a belated reply, but thank you ! I def owe you a beer if the opportunity ever presents itself! You will never know how it changed things for me.

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