Botty Challenges

[mcgoo]

Thanks sionascaig

Last 24 hours a good bot run. $5 & $10 stakes. I hope it continues.

Horse Racing: AUD16.58 | Tennis: AUD5.02 Total P&L: AUD21.60

Stick at it, there's gold in them there hills

Don't get too hung up on strike rates though as you'd have to be very lucky to have a high winning % automated and high winning %'s sometimes just limit your profit as the conditions are too tight. For me botting is generally about the volume you can stick thru the markets and any variance will eventually even out. Small amounts will soon add up nicely if you churn enough markets so any wins should be welcomed no matter how small if they're repeatable.

Thanks..I have the prospecting hat on and me metal detector on full bore .Getting an idea every 2 days now but trying to be systematic and let things run for a week or so. Achieving a good balance is the goal but the variance apparently can kill things fast..or not if you manage them stakes and the theory is sound. What a game ..onwards we go

[mcgoo]

mmm last horse bot went back to break even and I didn't like the risk/reward ratio
Gotta new one that looks ok but bit slow..making few $ here and there
Tennis bot had a fatal flaw-have paused that for a bit..but ideas!!! see below....
getting a new idea every 24 hours now...patience to let 100 or so trades run is a challenge but sitting on me hands. Head hurts but its a geek joy

[sionascaig]

Think I have eventually found something that works on the dogs (5 weeks and still going with a daily - small - profit)... Problem is it just makes a maximum of one trade per race...

Next problem to solve is upping the volume traded by getting it to focus on more than one selection and multiple trades per selection... In theory this should be possible but implementation could be a challenge...

Lesson learned from previous attempts : slow down and solve one problem at a time....

Hoping the same approach can be used on the lower liquidity horse races.

[mcgoo]

Think I have eventually found something that works on the dogs (5 weeks and still going with a daily - small - profit)... Problem is it just makes a maximum of one trade per race...

Next problem to solve is upping the volume traded by getting it to focus on more than one selection and multiple trades per selection... In theory this should be possible but implementation could be a challenge...

Lesson learned from previous attempts : slow down and solve one problem at a time....

Hoping the same approach can be used on the lower liquidity horse races.

Nice one.All the best for it. I have one returning 10% after 53 trades over a week but early days.Amazing how patience and indeed focus ( slow down for sure) are key

[sionascaig]

Is the margin on turnover ?

My rates are a lot lower, e.g:

P/L: £2.00
Turnover: £936.17
Margin on Turnover: 0.20%

P/L: £4.51
Turnover: £622.83
Margin on Turnover: 0.72%

[mcgoo]

yes turnover. Had a really good run but % will reduce over larger data sets there is no doubt

[PeterLe]

Morning
Just a few thoughts...
On any bot, worthwhile looking a at the full bet history from your bet fair account (keep records even if yo make a subtle change). Extract to excel and analyse......then check to see if you had only placed the back bets or only placed the lay bets would you have been in profit? Can tell you a lot over the course of time
Also, if you do have to green up, only use the reverse setting..yes, you won't get everyone matched, but that will equal itself over time. Everytime you green at current odds, you are potentially throwing money away
Regards
Peter

[mcgoo]

Thanks Peter.Good advice. I was only looking a the reverse green up more closely today, funny enough. I have taken notes of all my changes but only in the last month & this has helped a great deal. Good to know I am on the right track.I'll start looking a the bet stats more.Cheers

[spreadbetting]

Morning
Just a few thoughts...
On any bot, worthwhile looking a at the full bet history from your bet fair account (keep records even if yo make a subtle change). Extract to excel and analyse......then check to see if you had only placed the back bets or only placed the lay bets would you have been in profit? Can tell you a lot over the course of time
Also, if you do have to green up, only use the reverse setting..yes, you won't get everyone matched, but that will equal itself over time. Everytime you green at current odds, you are potentially throwing money away
Regards
Peter

Couldn't agree more, Peter, you find most botter's, and traders to an extent, put all their efforts into the entry point and then throw away any value they've obtained with sloppy exits. Dobbers are the same, put their efforts into the entry with choice of selection, then close out with no real thought or effort behind it.

[sionascaig]

Guilty as charged - thanks for the advice Peter )

My original bot did as you suggested (just placed lay bets) and agree it a great way to get insight.

Really should go back and have a look as you suggest...

[ruthlessimon]

Something that I like tracking is my drawdown/updraw on a trade.

It's one of the few things that can boost an edge without affecting the frequency/scale.

If all my winners had a max drawdown of 8ticks, that's roughly where the stop should go. Immediately that cuts the biggest losers. In theory, targets could also be optimised in a similar way.

[ruthlessimon]

Something I'm literally looking at in my own data atm is my "losers vs winners entry price count".

In theory, a random strategy, should have an equal distribution between wins & loses, at any entry price (assuming the wins/losses are equal). What I found with this strategy - entries around mid 2s - this is not happening; & the losers are far outweighing the winners (over a range of prices - almost a normal distribution).

This is why I like just sending out hundreds of random "bots" (although I use excel vs actual trading). Use them as reconnaissance to build something even bigger

[sionascaig]

Food for thought there... Its not what I would have expected...

Looking at the drawdown/up side on the trades certainly sounds like its something worth pursuing.

I don't think what I have is even close to being optimised so work to do there. Just happy to start seeing some results come through even if it turns out to be a temporary thing )

[ShaunWhite]

This is why I like just sending out hundreds of random "bots" (although I use excel vs actual trading).

Strategy dev 101 question, what prices are you using for your entries and/or exits, best, reverse or mid? (in excel)

Using best price I find it almost impossible to find black numbers, and using reverse prices I find lots of edges but because they're slim so I can't be sure they can be executed.

I've settled on reverse for entry and best for exits but I'm especially happy with it.

[ruthlessimon]

Strategy dev 101 question, what prices are you using for your entries and/or exits, best, reverse or mid? (in excel)

Using best price I find it almost impossible to find black numbers, and using reverse prices I find lots of edges but because they're slim so I can't be sure they can be executed.

I've settled on reverse for entry and best for exits but I'm especially happy with it.

I believe it's measuring simply which back price is available. It is certainly an assumption - & the results will have an error component. The only way I can mitigate it is by assuming the targets are always hit perfectly, & the stops are always slipped (assuming the strat has stops/targets).

How would you define slim? that to me is quite subjective

For example, building a scalping strategy on my dataset, & expecting the results to be similar, would be pretty silly. However finding the markets that have the lowest volatility, using a breakout strategy (which never fires) - implies the optimal variables for scalping. Assuming we avoid curve fitting