Bet Angel Automation - Shared files : In play high price

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imajik
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2011 2:45 am

Sat Feb 21, 2015 2:44 pm

Is it possible to write a condition for the in play high price, I can't figure out how to do this. I would like to arm a potential back bet when the in play odds goes over a certain price. I can do this in excel but would like to stick with automation if possible.

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Dublin_Flyer
Posts: 416
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:37 pm

You could back the particular horse or the field at the fixed price before the race starts and keep in-play, or just have the trigger at fixed price once the race is in-play.
If you go for the field, then all bets bar 1 will be matched as everyone hits 1000 at some stage, some times including the winner.
Looking at todays IR-highs, from 50+ there was 50,55,160,380,410 from 5 meetings.
Yesterdays were 60 and 160 from 4 meetings.

Going for a like by like comparison using saturdays this year(most meetings)and 50+ as the limit:
Today is above,
Sat 14th Feb:55,75,390,860 from 5 meetings
Sat 7th Feb:55,60,95,340,990 from 6 meetings
Sat Jan 31st:60,760,1000 from 5 meetings
Sat Jan 24th:75,120,130,980 from 5 meetings
Sat Jan 17th:55,140 from 5 meetings
Sat Jan 10th:50,55,90,100,170,1000 from 5 meetings
Sat Jan 3rd:65 from 5 meetings!

Looking at tomorrows racing there is 193 declared in 21 races at 3 meetings. There will be 21 winners so at least 172 will trade at 1000 at some stage. So we could use 172 as our fixed price to find 1 match to break even, which isn't a possible increment so we step up to 180. Because the 5% commission on our possible winner might bring us below break-even(172), we have to step up the price again, 190 gives 180.50 after commission so that will do. (The reduced commission by the losing bets on other matches is not included for the sake of hurting my head with too much maths!)

In short, if your back price is above the number of runners that day when you include your commission level, then it can be profitable. However, when you go into summer racing when there can be 8+ meetings a day, a few races at Navan or other Irish courses can have 20+ in most races, so that can pump your price up a few hundred.

It's possible to just make your rule and apply it directly to the specified meeting and go meeting by meeting instead of day by day.
In which case tomorrows races have declared:
Fontwell, 37 runners, so 40 will be the break even price after comm.
Southwell, 74 runners, so 80 will be the break even price after comm.
Naas, 82 runners (low for an Irish meeting), so 90 will be the break even after comm. for this meeting.

As the individual meeting prices are lower, they're much more likely to be matched, but 1 meeting matched at lowest price and 2 meetings with no matches is a loss compared to the coverall price of 190...which might not be matched at all anywhere, much your personal preference and risk level.

I'm having a go in practice mode, if anyone cares to give it a go with proper cash, don't forget to make a donation to your local charity in my name out of your millions :)
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Dublin_Flyer
Posts: 416
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:37 pm

Can only add 3 attachments at once, last one here :)
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Dublin_Flyer
Posts: 416
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

Sun Feb 22, 2015 1:15 am

Looked into the last weeks races, and it makes for interesting figures. I assumed overall it would be better to keep the stakes relative to the number of runners per meeting, it appears that the cover-all approach daily might be worthwhile!

I've little planned for Sunday apart from watching sports because I'm a boring fucker, so once I get through updating my monthly shit on horseracebase for my BA triggers, I'll look into the daily amount of runners this year to date. Divide the number of declared runners minus number of races by 0.95 to get the minimum price required for a break even after commission, then see what matched it.

I think it's worth looking into a bit more, I'm sure many of the forumites here are thinking along with Kyle....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO5sxLapAts
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PeterLe
Posts: 3340
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Sun Feb 22, 2015 1:00 pm

DF
I just had a quick look at one of your files - the all day one..

Just a couple of observations..
Why run it when in play? If you load it the night before, you might catch a spike up to say 12 hours beforehand

Also, you have no condition in there to check the current odds (if the back odds are already at 1000 would you want to place a £10 bet at 170..remember if there is only £2 at 1000 and £8 at 170, you will get your full £10 matched but not good value perhaps?)

Good Luck
regards
Peter

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Dublin_Flyer
Posts: 416
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

Sat Mar 07, 2015 1:43 am

You're right PeterLe,
Had my maths in my head arseways so to speak. The IP was to try catch Fat Fingers, i.e. Des Scahill has cost people thousands calling the wrong faller, could have worked in Irish meetings ;)

Regarding the current odds condition, I was under the impression if 170 is too low it'll match at the next highest price, if it hits 1000 by one of those random things: commentator calls wrong horse/jockey almost falls off etc. But you're right, the 170 will be matched first, so the IR high of the winner is irrelevant.

Theoretically, I think there's possibly something to it, if you can find your sweet spot between the weeks/days/distances/meetings that have huge IR highs, then it could be profitable. Eventually, nothing short term, and to be frank I don't find it very interesting any more, it's too much like a medium-low risk pension plan to me! :roll:

Also for what it's worth, most of my posts seem to be on weekends, be that evening, night or morning! 90% of the time I'm giving an alcohol induced viewpoint! :lol: hence the practice mode disclaimer ;)

I'm on night shift this week coming though, so between me and you Betangel forum buddies, I hope we fuck Cheltenham for all it's worth! :lol: :D

Best of luck to all :)

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