Botty Challenges

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mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

Thought I would update this thread-partly to help me keep track of my thoughts and for those out there(like I was) starting out and thinking it-automation- is simply impossible for the mere mortals on the ground. ;) I know I've wondered over the years. Hopefully I am not being premature but I can feel patience in my analysis and bot writing now that was never there before.
Anyway, 126 markets, $50 odd profit on tennis and horses-all automated over 7 days. It is not long term profit yet, I know, and there is much work to be done but I can see the upside and downside boundaries (after running bots over then's of thousands of markets) and feel good about possibilities (touch wood :) )..especially as the bots are massively scalable in the context of when I have them running.
Even to get this far, running automation unattended and not getting caned, with some upside , tickles me pink :D All the best to you lot starting out & or searching for the holy grail like me. I am no maths geek and not a coder (luckily we have BA and this forum to guide us) but I find this whole thing, a very satisfying journey, win or lose & I hope my thoughts & journey help you. Good luck. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
sionascaig
Posts: 1053
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Keep the posts up mcgoo, I enjoyed following your progress ) And gratz on recent success...

I've been on a similar journey and experienced the same issues but like you haven enjoyed the experience. I think its a great way to better understand markets and the highs from a success are worth the pain...

Best so far was a 30 day winning streak from a bot on the dogs a few months ago but then something changed and its no longer profitable (I think!). Like you I got caught out by the early suspension of a market which reformed 10 secs before the off - now have an additional safety rule to check time since last suspension and takes advantage of the fact that most races start late....

Onwards & upwards......
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mcgoo
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Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

Thanks sionascaig

Last 24 hours a good bot run. $5 & $10 stakes. I hope it continues. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Horse Racing: AUD16.58 | Tennis: AUD5.02 Total P&L: AUD21.60
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Cards37
Posts: 234
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 7:40 am
Location: Canberra, Australia

Great stuff - especially interested as you are trading my local markets too!
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

mcgoo wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 8:01 am
Thanks sionascaig

Last 24 hours a good bot run. $5 & $10 stakes. I hope it continues. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Horse Racing: AUD16.58 | Tennis: AUD5.02 Total P&L: AUD21.60
Stick at it, there's gold in them there hills :)

Don't get too hung up on strike rates though as you'd have to be very lucky to have a high winning % automated and high winning %'s sometimes just limit your profit as the conditions are too tight. For me botting is generally about the volume you can stick thru the markets and any variance will eventually even out. Small amounts will soon add up nicely if you churn enough markets so any wins should be welcomed no matter how small if they're repeatable.
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mcgoo
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spreadbetting wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 1:34 pm
mcgoo wrote:
Wed May 30, 2018 8:01 am
Thanks sionascaig

Last 24 hours a good bot run. $5 & $10 stakes. I hope it continues. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Horse Racing: AUD16.58 | Tennis: AUD5.02 Total P&L: AUD21.60
Stick at it, there's gold in them there hills :)

Don't get too hung up on strike rates though as you'd have to be very lucky to have a high winning % automated and high winning %'s sometimes just limit your profit as the conditions are too tight. For me botting is generally about the volume you can stick thru the markets and any variance will eventually even out. Small amounts will soon add up nicely if you churn enough markets so any wins should be welcomed no matter how small if they're repeatable.
Thanks..I have the prospecting hat on and me metal detector on full bore :D :mrgreen: .Getting an idea every 2 days now but trying to be systematic and let things run for a week or so. Achieving a good balance is the goal but the variance apparently can kill things fast..or not if you manage them stakes and the theory is sound. What a game :)..onwards we go
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mcgoo
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Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

mmm last horse bot went back to break even and I didn't like the risk/reward ratio
Gotta new one that looks ok but bit slow..making few $ here and there
Tennis bot had a fatal flaw-have paused that for a bit..but ideas!!! see below....
getting a new idea every 24 hours now...patience to let 100 or so trades run is a challenge but sitting on me hands. Head hurts but its a geek joy :D :ugeek: :ugeek:
sionascaig
Posts: 1053
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Think I have eventually found something that works on the dogs (5 weeks and still going with a daily - small - profit)... Problem is it just makes a maximum of one trade per race...

Next problem to solve is upping the volume traded by getting it to focus on more than one selection and multiple trades per selection... In theory this should be possible but implementation could be a challenge...

Lesson learned from previous attempts : slow down and solve one problem at a time....

Hoping the same approach can be used on the lower liquidity horse races.
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mcgoo
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sionascaig wrote:
Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:40 am
Think I have eventually found something that works on the dogs (5 weeks and still going with a daily - small - profit)... Problem is it just makes a maximum of one trade per race...

Next problem to solve is upping the volume traded by getting it to focus on more than one selection and multiple trades per selection... In theory this should be possible but implementation could be a challenge...

Lesson learned from previous attempts : slow down and solve one problem at a time....

Hoping the same approach can be used on the lower liquidity horse races.
Nice one.All the best for it. I have one returning 10% after 53 trades over a week but early days.Amazing how patience and indeed focus ( slow down for sure) are key :)
sionascaig
Posts: 1053
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Is the margin on turnover ?

My rates are a lot lower, e.g:

P/L: £2.00
Turnover: £936.17
Margin on Turnover: 0.20%

P/L: £4.51
Turnover: £622.83
Margin on Turnover: 0.72%
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mcgoo
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Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

yes turnover. Had a really good run but % will reduce over larger data sets there is no doubt :)
PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Morning
Just a few thoughts...
On any bot, worthwhile looking a at the full bet history from your bet fair account (keep records even if yo make a subtle change). Extract to excel and analyse......then check to see if you had only placed the back bets or only placed the lay bets would you have been in profit? Can tell you a lot over the course of time
Also, if you do have to green up, only use the reverse setting..yes, you won't get everyone matched, but that will equal itself over time. Everytime you green at current odds, you are potentially throwing money away
Regards
Peter
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mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

Thanks Peter.Good advice. I was only looking a the reverse green up more closely today, funny enough. I have taken notes of all my changes but only in the last month & this has helped a great deal. Good to know I am on the right track.I'll start looking a the bet stats more.Cheers :)
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

PeterLe wrote:
Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:44 am
Morning
Just a few thoughts...
On any bot, worthwhile looking a at the full bet history from your bet fair account (keep records even if yo make a subtle change). Extract to excel and analyse......then check to see if you had only placed the back bets or only placed the lay bets would you have been in profit? Can tell you a lot over the course of time
Also, if you do have to green up, only use the reverse setting..yes, you won't get everyone matched, but that will equal itself over time. Everytime you green at current odds, you are potentially throwing money away
Regards
Peter
Couldn't agree more, Peter, you find most botter's, and traders to an extent, put all their efforts into the entry point and then throw away any value they've obtained with sloppy exits. Dobbers are the same, put their efforts into the entry with choice of selection, then close out with no real thought or effort behind it.
sionascaig
Posts: 1053
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Guilty as charged - thanks for the advice Peter )

My original bot did as you suggested (just placed lay bets) and agree it a great way to get insight.

Really should go back and have a look as you suggest...
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