Bet Angel - FAQ's : My first Swing Trade

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Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Fri Mar 24, 2017 2:15 pm

The term swing trading means to look for a longer-term movement of odds in the market, (a swing in the price) therefore unlike scalping were your looking to get in and out of trades quickly taking 1-2 each time and repeating this over and over again with a swing trade your looking to take a much longer-term view of how the odds are expected to move and will be looking to pick up anything from a half dozen to a much as 30-40 ticks in some cases.
There’s many ways of identifying potential opportunities when looking for a swing trade which I’m not going to go into detail here but if you have never done any sort of swing trading this thread will at least show a few basic but effective methods to help you get started.

What I’m looking for in this example is a price to be near the top or bottom of a solid trading range (a traded range of a selection is prices were money has been matched already, this and the amount that’s been matched already is shown in the right column for each ladder) im then looking for signs that it’s not going to go much further beyond this range. Believing now it’s more likely to reverse back through the range its already traded in rather than to push out this range to new highs or lows.

In the image below the horse has not traded below 5.2 (apart from a few pounds from early morning bets) but the bulk of the money is all between odds of 5.2 and 6.6 (which is just out of view in the image). It can also be seen from the chart that it looks like the price is levelling out so I’m now looking to place a lay while it’s at the bottom of the range believing its more likely to reverse and go back up through the range than continue down to prices it’s never been to yet.

Swing 1.jpg

I have opened a position by placing a £100 lay bet at 5.2 the first thing I have done after that is place a stop loss by right clicking in the lay column at odds of 4.6 The reason I have done this is because the range I’m looking at is about 8-9 ticks and I’m looking to exit near the top of the range so I have set my stop loss at 7 ticks below in the opposite direction.

Even by doing this randomly I'll have a 50/50 chance whether it goes up or down this amount of ticks – however I’m hoping because I have layed at the bottom there is more chance of the price going back through the range rather than breaking out into new ground, and if this happens over the long term I will end up in profit.

So, in this particular trade I’m prepared to lose £15.22 should the price continue to shorten but if it instead goes back up through its previous range then I could profit around a similar amount as it nears the top. In this example, instead of going for a complete exit and aiming to green up at 6.2 (which I could do by clicking on the £14.52 figure in the profit column) Instead I have chosen to split my closing back stake into two and placed the first £50 towards the top of the range where I think it will get it matched, if this happens I will then manage the rest of my position according to how the market looks at that time.

Swing 2.jpg

Shortly after that in the image below you can see the price did indeed reverse and go back up through its previous traded range and matched my first £50 back bet near the top at 6.2, notice what this has done to the profit column on the left – I’m now in a very comfortable position where I can now only lose should I do nothing at all and the price somehow goes all the way down to below 4.4 which is very unlikely to happen!

So this trade is now all about managing my remaining position and really just about getting the most profit as possible from it by deciding when to green out completely. You ‘ll notice in the image that I have now moved my stop loss by right clicking at odds of 5.9 which means if the price does start to reverse I’m still going to green out for £12.71 on all runners - Hopefully though it will continue to rise although there is not much time left!

Swing 3.jpg

Unfortunately, the time did run out and the price only moved very little further so I greened up for a profit of £19.44. I did this by clicking on that figure in the profit column which was adjacent the best avaliable at that time which was 7.2 and the software then calculated and placed the stake I needed to green up for that amount at those odds - which was a back bet of £30.56

That’s everything greened up and a swing trade complete. After opening the trade in a good position the price never went more than 2-3 ticks against me (stop loss was 7 ticks) before moving into profit. After taking 50% of my initial lay stake out at the top of the range I was assured not to lose money on this market, I was able to leave the remaining 50% run a bit longer and picked up a further 5 ticks profit (about £5 more than if I just greened out completely in one go) but more importantly had the price reversed once I had took half out I could fully relax knowing I has secured some profit.

Swing 4.jpg

Ill follow up with some further examples showing how some of the global settings of Bet Angel can be used to assist you when swing trading.
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