Daily profit

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ruthlessimon
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:33 am
It's simply loss recovery and doesn't make sense.
No, you've assumed it's loss recovery (unless I've misread the OPs original post). I didn't see any mention/data of similar style losses early in the day?

Time is just as valid an area for improvement as any other variable (i.e. sucking at competitive races). But I'd say there's a confounding variable somewhere. The best example I can think of is (although doesn't apply directly to the OP), lack of focus. A trader who simply cannot cope with the demands of 8hrs of trading, will see a consistent drop in performance later in the day. & to tell them "the only way to stop your profits disappearing is to stop trading for life" is a bit silly imo!
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Derek27
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:11 am
Derek27 wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:33 am
It's simply loss recovery and doesn't make sense.
No, you've assumed it's loss recovery (unless I've misread the OPs original post). I didn't see any mention/data of similar style losses early in the day?

Time is just as valid an area for improvement as any other variable (i.e. sucking at competitive races). But I'd say there's a confounding variable somewhere. The best example I can think of is (although doesn't apply directly to the OP), lack of focus. A trader who simply cannot cope with the demands of 8hrs of trading, will see a consistent drop in performance later in the day. & to tell them "the only way to stop your profits disappearing is to stop trading for life" is a bit silly imo!
markybhoy wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:00 pm
I am currently running a automated system with greyhounds. 60+ races per day. The problem is i can get profit if over 30% some days but because the bot keeps running i sometimes end up with a loss.
Is there any way to stop guardian once a set profit is reached or once my account balance reaches a set ammount??
I don't do automation but I didn't know bots suffer from fatigue and need a rest after a few hours. :lol:

Stopping at a 30% profit but continuing regardless of how much you lose, if that's not loss recovery what would be the reason for continuing?

There isn't really any different to loss recovery and lack of profit recovery - they both involve betting purely because you're dissatisfied with your position!

The bottom line is that if a bot makes money and then loses it if it continues, it's not making anything - it's a losing bot, stopping for a few hours and then starting it again is pointless.

I suggested giving up trading for life as a better alternative to stopping a bot for a few hours to avoid losses and then continuing with it, hoping it will perform better, out of those two options. I wasn't suggesting it was the best option. As SHR suggested, tweaking, reconsidering, analysing the results could be the way forward.
markybhoy
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Let me explain a bit further as the post was to find out if there was a way to basically switch off guardian at a certain profiit level and now its turned in to my system is useless, my bots not working and i should give up.
With the stats i use there will be a peak point in each day, begining middle or end that i will have profit of over 20% sometimes 30%. If i let my bot run at worst i will have a minimul loss or break even. What i want to do is stop guardian arround the peak profit as any trader would. Saying its not working is a bit like saying no system works as there will always be loss and therefore u could argue loss recovery is always used.
Derek your talking like u have the golden egg of trading and have never lossed. Surely u have good days and bad and would like to minimise the bad. Or maybe we should all give up at the first loss we encounter.

Cheers everyone for the input anyway. I will try tweaking the system and see what can be done
Jukebox
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In between al the critisism you might have missed that a workaround was offered.
markybhoy
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Sorry jukebox. What would you use as a work arround? Much appriciated by the way
Jukebox
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Its on P1 of this thread.
markybhoy
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Thanks Jukebox i will give that a go today and see how it works.
Jukebox
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LOL I'll look out for some unusually large hopeful lays on the Champions League Winner market
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Derek27
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markybhoy wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:37 am
Let me explain a bit further as the post was to find out if there was a way to basically switch off guardian at a certain profiit level and now its turned in to my system is useless, my bots not working and i should give up.
With the stats i use there will be a peak point in each day, begining middle or end that i will have profit of over 20% sometimes 30%. If i let my bot run at worst i will have a minimul loss or break even. What i want to do is stop guardian arround the peak profit as any trader would. Saying its not working is a bit like saying no system works as there will always be loss and therefore u could argue loss recovery is always used.
Derek your talking like u have the golden egg of trading and have never lossed. Surely u have good days and bad and would like to minimise the bad. Or maybe we should all give up at the first loss we encounter.

Cheers everyone for the input anyway. I will try tweaking the system and see what can be done
Just to be clear Mark, I never suggested you give up, I just said that's the only way to insure you don't lose what you've won. I'm happy and most people are happy to continue to gamble with their profits knowing they could lose what they've won - that's what gambling is all about!

If your profits peak at 20-30% each day it's worth investigating the reasons why, such as comparisons between winning and losing markets. Identifying the reasons would at least give you more confidence that the trend will continue. Good luck.
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ruthlessimon
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:35 am
I didn't know bots suffer from fatigue and need a rest after a few hours. :lol:
:D

Here's a better one:

Maybe the OPs wife gets home from work (with the kids) @ 5pm. Dailymail, Youtube, Netflix, Xbox, all running simultaneously - will have an effect on the latency. Causing the bot to go bonkers during this period - only visible by the extreme difference in p&l (i.e. huge winners, & huge losers, outside what is expected).

If that was the case, having the foresight to spot something like that is incredibly difficult (& imo why trading is so challenging)

Have you seen some of my other posts r.e. loss recovery/stopping for the day? ;)

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Kafkaesque
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markybhoy wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:37 am
Let me explain a bit further as the post was to find out if there was a way to basically switch off guardian at a certain profiit level and now its turned in to my system is useless, my bots not working and i should give up.
With the stats i use there will be a peak point in each day, begining middle or end that i will have profit of over 20% sometimes 30%. If i let my bot run at worst i will have a minimul loss or break even. What i want to do is stop guardian arround the peak profit as any trader would. Saying its not working is a bit like saying no system works as there will always be loss and therefore u could argue loss recovery is always used.
Derek your talking like u have the golden egg of trading and have never lossed. Surely u have good days and bad and would like to minimise the bad. Or maybe we should all give up at the first loss we encounter.

Cheers everyone for the input anyway. I will try tweaking the system and see what can be done
I think, you're taking some of the critisism the wrong way. Nobody's saying, that you should stop trading or that you - necessarily - have a bad bot on your hands. What everybody is screaming at you is that you're looking at optimizing the bot the wrong way around.

I cannot see ANY possible reason why the breaking point for your strategy's profitabilty would be related to you daily profit in percentages. You're correct in that you should stop the bot once in stops being profitable. However, what everyone is saying in unison but in different ways, is that you need to figure out WHY it stops being a winning strategy at a certain point. That's the optimal approach imho. You could conceivably then weed out some bad races/spots early in the day, and still keep the bot going with the (few?) good spots late in the day.
Jukebox
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Good luck with it Markybhoy.
I'm surprised at the amount of criticism that your fairly simple request drew
Remember some of the critics of your unknown system will be the same ones that will tell you you won't know if your system is viable until x thousands of results, others will definitely say that practice mode won't give you a good indication of success and particularly in low liquidity markets like greyhounds and that only real money will show what will truly get matched - others have all day to nursemaid their automation and some have money to spare to run their trials. So why trying to lock in a bit of green if its offered during a real money trial while your at work seems to be such a dreadful thing to them - well who knows?. I can see its essential if you are working on taking advantage of an observed ebb and flow to the day.

I've tried many trade all day automation ideas on greyhounds myself in the past on the side and have observed with some of them that on losing days that good profits had been available at some stage in the day, and perversely on winning days it had gone deep into the red in the course of the day and eventually dismissed them as a nice initial idea but essentially only barely covering the commission.

However I don't see that 'scalping the ebb and flow of the day' on a stable, close to break even file is necessarily any different to scalping a runner in a single race when its price is stable - in both cases you close on the green and have another go - whether thats the next day or the next race. There are statistical arguments against the idea but they are largely based on the idea that all continuous runs of consecutive races of 'n' are equal - when the truth is that a day is not just a random chunk of a continuous run - participants change through the day, autotraders pull their losing files and try something else, punters chase losses or blow winnings, bookies hedge popular multiples that start to take shape and the tracks around the country offer a balance of quality races for the day - . Goodness knows, there are probably even autotraders out there hunting for automatic trades - observing them for some time and then taking advantage - especially on the greyhounds. If one took the time and course names off a continuous sequence of a thousand horse races pulled at random and showed the data to even a modestly experienced horserace trader they would very likely at least still be able to mark the beginning and ends of the days in that run and probably a heap more besides.
spreadbetting
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Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Jukebox wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:18 pm
Good luck with it Markybhoy.
I'm surprised at the amount of criticism that your fairly simple request drew
Think I'd have to agree, the forum can get a bit "preachy" at times, he'd been given reasons why it's possibly not a wise idea to quit a 'winning' system early and a way to quit if he wants to, up to him which one he chooses.
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Kafkaesque
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spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:28 pm
Jukebox wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 4:18 pm
Good luck with it Markybhoy.
I'm surprised at the amount of criticism that your fairly simple request drew
Think I'd have to agree, the forum can get a bit "preachy" at times, he'd been given reasons why it's possibly not a wise idea to quit a 'winning' system early and a way to quit if he wants to, up to him which one he chooses.
Me too, looking at myself as much as anyone else! I'd like to apologise to the OP for jumping to the (semi-)conclusion of Martingale. In my, not very good, defence I was biased by the number of posts, or lack thereof, from the OP and the kinds of people who come round with first-ish posts of a holy grail, that's in fact very much not so. Still, had little reason to go there.
spreadbetting
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I'm certainly guilty of it too , I guess because we need to have some kind of blind faith in what we're doing it's easy to get blinkered into thinking our way is the only way to make consistent money on here. I still think the guy's cutting his profits by stopping early but there's probably no need to labour the point.
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