Dear Forum members
Can any of you lovely people advise me of the approximate location of a FINAL jump, hurdle at the lower end of the incremental price range.
I am using BA Professional and placing manual BACK trades using the ladder at the lower end of the price range i.e 1.01 - 1.05 where I believe the animal is a likely winner, my visual is in-play trader. I have been having some success with this thus far, but want to mitigate against the likely winner falling at the last jump, hurdle. What would be a safe price window for me to avoid this.
Thank you in advance & Happy New Year
Minnie LAI
In-play trading | where is the FINAL Hurdle, Jump
- BetScalper
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
Favourites get beaten priced @ 1.01 in all types of markets, including football matches.
At certain horse racing tracks many horses get beaten at very low odds.
You will win 93% of the time but sooner or later you will get turned over and wipe out most of your historical profits.
Good luck.
At certain horse racing tracks many horses get beaten at very low odds.
You will win 93% of the time but sooner or later you will get turned over and wipe out most of your historical profits.
Good luck.
Hurdle? Chase? Seasoned handicappers? Novices?
3 or 4 horses come to the last together all in with a chance... they may all still be odds against having jumped it....
Horse is 10 lengths clear coming to the last going easily, on a flat course, good ground.... will be sub 1.05
But what if he's 10 lengths clear coming to the last in a 3 mile chase at Cheltenham on soft ground with the hill to be faced?
Answer: how long is a piece of string?
3 or 4 horses come to the last together all in with a chance... they may all still be odds against having jumped it....
Horse is 10 lengths clear coming to the last going easily, on a flat course, good ground.... will be sub 1.05
But what if he's 10 lengths clear coming to the last in a 3 mile chase at Cheltenham on soft ground with the hill to be faced?
Answer: how long is a piece of string?
- MemphisFlash
- Posts: 2152
- Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
- Location: Leicester
a peice of string is twice the distance from the centre to the end!!
- The Silk Run
- Posts: 914
- Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:53 am
- Location: United Kingdom
Hello Angels
Thank you for your knowledge base, and kind words of encouragement.
I agree with the risk element attached to this hence the inquiry. Maybe I have been extremely lucky so far, but I don't enter a trade likely. Only once a likely winner meets my criteria will I commit, to date I have genuinely had huge success. Apart from unmatched trades my strike rate is 100%.
I am considering exploring the piece of string theory. Have you back tested this, and can you produce data in support, lol !!!
Keep up the good work
Minnie LAI
Thank you for your knowledge base, and kind words of encouragement.
I agree with the risk element attached to this hence the inquiry. Maybe I have been extremely lucky so far, but I don't enter a trade likely. Only once a likely winner meets my criteria will I commit, to date I have genuinely had huge success. Apart from unmatched trades my strike rate is 100%.
I am considering exploring the piece of string theory. Have you back tested this, and can you produce data in support, lol !!!
Keep up the good work
Minnie LAI
If you back a horse at 1.05 you need 95.2% winners just to break even, so it's not a likely winner but a near-certain winner that you need!The Silk Run wrote: ↑Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:23 pmI am using BA Professional and placing manual BACK trades using the ladder at the lower end of the price range i.e 1.01 - 1.05 where I believe the animal is a likely winner
The problem with using prices to determine the winner is that you're relying on other punters - the skilled, the not so skilled and the sheer incompetent, to tell you which horse is going to win. Their money will be on first and with the delay there's a fair chance you'll be backing a horse after it's already stumbled and fallen, or been headed and clearly beaten.