In-play trading | where is the FINAL Hurdle, Jump

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The Silk Run
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Dear Forum members

Can any of you lovely people advise me of the approximate location of a FINAL jump, hurdle at the lower end of the incremental price range.

I am using BA Professional and placing manual BACK trades using the ladder at the lower end of the price range i.e 1.01 - 1.05 where I believe the animal is a likely winner, my visual is in-play trader. I have been having some success with this thus far, but want to mitigate against the likely winner falling at the last jump, hurdle. What would be a safe price window for me to avoid this.

Thank you in advance & Happy New Year
Minnie LAI
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BetScalper
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Favourites get beaten priced @ 1.01 in all types of markets, including football matches.

At certain horse racing tracks many horses get beaten at very low odds.

You will win 93% of the time but sooner or later you will get turned over and wipe out most of your historical profits.

Good luck.
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Euler
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According to my, stats prices should be 1.05-1.10 before the last fence depending on a number of factors. But often they will reach 1.01 before the horse has jumped it. Risky business.
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Andriy
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Hurdle? Chase? Seasoned handicappers? Novices?

3 or 4 horses come to the last together all in with a chance... they may all still be odds against having jumped it....

Horse is 10 lengths clear coming to the last going easily, on a flat course, good ground.... will be sub 1.05

But what if he's 10 lengths clear coming to the last in a 3 mile chase at Cheltenham on soft ground with the hill to be faced?

Answer: how long is a piece of string?
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MemphisFlash
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a peice of string is twice the distance from the centre to the end!!
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The Silk Run
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Location: United Kingdom

Hello Angels

Thank you for your knowledge base, and kind words of encouragement.

I agree with the risk element attached to this hence the inquiry. Maybe I have been extremely lucky so far, but I don't enter a trade likely. Only once a likely winner meets my criteria will I commit, to date I have genuinely had huge success. Apart from unmatched trades my strike rate is 100%.

I am considering exploring the piece of string theory. Have you back tested this, and can you produce data in support, lol !!!

Keep up the good work
Minnie LAI
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Derek27
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The Silk Run wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:23 pm
I am using BA Professional and placing manual BACK trades using the ladder at the lower end of the price range i.e 1.01 - 1.05 where I believe the animal is a likely winner
If you back a horse at 1.05 you need 95.2% winners just to break even, so it's not a likely winner but a near-certain winner that you need!

The problem with using prices to determine the winner is that you're relying on other punters - the skilled, the not so skilled and the sheer incompetent, to tell you which horse is going to win. Their money will be on first and with the delay there's a fair chance you'll be backing a horse after it's already stumbled and fallen, or been headed and clearly beaten.
Jukebox
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Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

Consider it from the other side - I can remove my 1.05 lay bet more quickly (instantly) than you can get a back bet on in running and I can afford more mistakes.
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