US Presidential Election 2020
@john ppl place their orders in lots of ways for example often big orders are trying to find a balance between getting matched at best possible price and not scaring market which can involve lots of order pulling and rentry and seem like spoofing when it's not. Average bet size for market can be a helpful indicator and in this case looks extremely normal
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johnsheppard
- Posts: 284
- Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:00 am
- Location: Cairns Australia
What I don't understand is why does it get so thin sometimes?
For instance...right now (approx midnight US time)...there's hardly anything available...(see attached image)
Trump just moved down 2 ticks as I wrote this post...
Yoink...now back up another 2 ticks...
...Americans are not permitted to use Betfair right?
People betting here are mostly gonna be UK people? or am I being naive?
For instance...right now (approx midnight US time)...there's hardly anything available...(see attached image)
Trump just moved down 2 ticks as I wrote this post...
Yoink...now back up another 2 ticks...
...Americans are not permitted to use Betfair right?
People betting here are mostly gonna be UK people? or am I being naive?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Well Kayne just announced a presidential run and (bizarely in my opinion) he has already been backed down to 80/85. I just took out a big chunky lay at 85.johnsheppard wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:53 amWhat I don't understand is why does it get so thin sometimes?
For instance...right now (approx midnight US time)...there's hardly anything available...(see attached image)
Trump just moved down 2 ticks as I wrote this post...
Yoink...now back up another 2 ticks...
...Americans are not permitted to use Betfair right?
People betting here are mostly gonna be UK people? or am I being naive?
IMHO this helps Trump (to the extent it takes African American votes from Biden).
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
I thought he was bankrupt or heavily in debt, which wouldn't enhance his chances of being trusted with the American economy!gazuty wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 7:06 amWell Kayne just announced a presidential run and (bizarely in my opinion) he has already been backed down to 80/85. I just took out a big chunky lay at 85.johnsheppard wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:53 amWhat I don't understand is why does it get so thin sometimes?
For instance...right now (approx midnight US time)...there's hardly anything available...(see attached image)
Trump just moved down 2 ticks as I wrote this post...
Yoink...now back up another 2 ticks...
...Americans are not permitted to use Betfair right?
People betting here are mostly gonna be UK people? or am I being naive?
Capture.PNG
IMHO this helps Trump (to the extent it takes African American votes from Biden).
Maybe. Forbes pegs his net worth at a lazy billion. It’s the sort of poverty we would all like to endure.
Hard to see how he gets to 270.
someone took my thoughts and articulated them: https://londondaily.com/british-writer- ... -i-ve-read
literally, why WE british find Trump hard to swallow - class...
literally, why WE british find Trump hard to swallow - class...
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johnsheppard
- Posts: 284
- Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:00 am
- Location: Cairns Australia
Well, depending on the demographics of people gambling on Betfair, wouldn't that make for Trump being a good value back?jimibt wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:16 amsomeone took my thoughts and articulated them: https://londondaily.com/british-writer- ... -i-ve-read
literally, why WE british find Trump hard to swallow - class...
How Joe Biden is 67% on the Exchange is beyond me but I think its value and ill keep taking bits of it as long as people keep backing it in.johnsheppard wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:13 pmWell, depending on the demographics of people gambling on Betfair, wouldn't that make for Trump being a good value back?jimibt wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 11:16 amsomeone took my thoughts and articulated them: https://londondaily.com/british-writer- ... -i-ve-read
literally, why WE british find Trump hard to swallow - class...
A tweet from Elon says what a lot of people are secretly thinking but can't be arsed with the "you're a racist" comment social machine gun. The tweet read "The left is losing the middle" & of course the left have lost their shit over it.
The Dems are keeping Biden as silent as they possibly can, each time he opens his mouth a racial degrading slur follows, im not suprised though since he openly admits Robert Byrd, a leader in the KKK and a Democrat Senator was his friend & mentor.
I dont like picking at somebody's cognitive decline, its probably something most of us will go through at some point in our time & I'm starting to wonder if it is actually a decline or if its more the pressure of his past showing its ugly truth, if he's running on "you ain't black if you vote for Trump" & that's his base then Jeeze imo he's going to get destroyed.
https://youtu.be/7toL2XBjD5E
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Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
The debates might have a bearing on the market price but imo they wont have any bearing on the outcome of the election. Its going to be all about the economy, which is in a shambles because of Covid-19. With general consensus being a vaccine wont be widely available until at least 2021 the economy is going to be in a worse state come November, you can currently back a recession in 2020 at 1.01 if you fancy it!
Obviously you cant blame Trump for the virus but his ineptitude at trying to deal with is really incredible to watch on a daily basis. And I know you cant lay all the blame at his feet, weak leadership on a gubernatorial level, hyper-politicisation in the media and probably most importantly the sheer arrogance of many average Americans who wont even wear a face mask or even try to socially distance because of their interpretation of a near 350 year old piece of paper. Its a very real possibility that the US still wont have a handle on Covid-19 come November.
Trump will still have his base but I think a lot of the swing voters will desert him this time around. For me he'll need a minor miracle to win but who knows, maybe Biden will drop dead on the debate stage!
Biden to be swapped out for Coumo & an all out war between him & Trump. The narrative has been set on Biden already.Trader Pat wrote: ↑Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:22 pmThe debates might have a bearing on the market price but imo they wont have any bearing on the outcome of the election. Its going to be all about the economy, which is in a shambles because of Covid-19. With general consensus being a vaccine wont be widely available until at least 2021 the economy is going to be in a worse state come November, you can currently back a recession in 2020 at 1.01 if you fancy it!
Obviously you cant blame Trump for the virus but his ineptitude at trying to deal with is really incredible to watch on a daily basis. And I know you cant lay all the blame at his feet, weak leadership on a gubernatorial level, hyper-politicisation in the media and probably most importantly the sheer arrogance of many average Americans who wont even wear a face mask or even try to socially distance because of their interpretation of a near 350 year old piece of paper. Its a very real possibility that the US still wont have a handle on Covid-19 come November.
Trump will still have his base but I think a lot of the swing voters will desert him this time around. For me he'll need a minor miracle to win but who knows, maybe Biden will drop dead on the debate stage!