'Super Tuesday' concludes. Sorry gazuty, but Trump has cleaned up, clocking up big wins across the board. Cruz and Rubio only managed to take 2 and 1 states off him, respectively. The main market movement is the fall-off in Rubio's odds - a very poor performance from Rubio.
On the Democrat side, Clinton has also cleaned up by winning big, but Sanders is still hanging in there with a chance, winning 3 states, including his home state of Vermont.
US Presidential Election 2016
Yep. The brokered convention is now my best hope.Zenyatta wrote:'Super Tuesday' concludes. Sorry gazuty, but Trump has cleaned up, clocking up big wins across the board. Cruz and Rubio only managed to take 2 and 1 states off him, respectively. The main market movement is the fall-off in Rubio's odds - a very poor performance from Rubio.
On the Democrat side, Clinton has also cleaned up by winning big, but Sanders is still hanging in there with a chance, winning 3 states, including his home state of Vermont.
I wouldn't use the words "cleaned up". I'd say Trump met, but did not exceed expectations (Ttrump does best with non Uni educated poorer whites). Cruz went better than expected by picking up oaklahoma, with his expected Texas win. Rubio almost snagged Virginia but his sub 20% performance in a few of the Southern states means he misses statewide delegate allocations he badly needs.
Ok updating this post courtesy of 538 - the likely delegate count from Super Tuesday is great for Cruz and bad for Rubio.
"Trump is on track to end up with about 262 delegates, Cruz is on track to win about 215, and Rubio is on track to win about 93. "
Sounds like the republicans are going to try and make life a bit harder for Trump, price may pop out a bit.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35712363
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35712363
TRUMP: ‘You know I’m not a gay man OK. But…I want to show you..the pictures of my balls’Euler wrote:Cassetteboy vs The Apprentice - Donald Trump Edition
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgUAQ4ZGtgk
TRUMP: ‘Take a look’.
FEMALE APPRENTICE: ‘Thank you’
MALE APPRENTICE: ‘It’s surprising to think that I’m the one who has bigger balls of the two of us’
*Laughs*
TRUMP: “I want to see all of you dropped to your knees. My balls will be going in your mouth. Piers, you’re first. So Piers, let’s get down to it. If you want you can watch, it will not be pretty’.
US election 2016: Mitt Romney warns Trump not fit to run country
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35717888
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35717888
A different look at republican race from Bad Lip Reading
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufGlBv8Z3NU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufGlBv8Z3NU
(All comments from me come with built in bias).Zenyatta wrote:The market thinks that the attacks on Trump are finally starting to hurt him! His odds of winning have taken a hit, dropping from a high of 80% , now down to 65%.
The party decides.
Maybe Paul Ryan makes it after all.
-
marksmeets302
- Posts: 527
- Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm
Curiously, Joe Bidens odds are still shortening.
Yes, some interesting things happening here. Trump's definitely taken hits, his prices have seriously drifted, although he's still the favourite to win the nomination. Cruz is surging, his price has really come in. And strangely, Romney and Ryan are now in the market.marksmeets302 wrote:Curiously, Joe Bidens odds are still shortening.
The democratic side shows Sanders surging, the market thinks he's still got an outside chance to beat Clinton. And strangely, as you pointed out, Biden is now in the market and his price is shortening!
As shown by the rise of Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, if the voting is restricted to a particular limited political constituency, some fairly extreme characters can rise to the top. So Trump could easily win the Republician nomination. However, it's almost always the case that for a general election (with a much wider constituency), sanity prevails and the extremists get badly beaten at the ballot ball.
In a normal general election, with any decent Democatic nominee, Trump would be annihilated. The problem you have though, is that this isn't a normal election: The likely Democratic candidate (Clinton) is an incredibly weak candidate, with one of the highest unfavorability ratings of any politican. Under these circumstances, in a Trump vs Clinton race, I think anything could happen.
In a normal general election, with any decent Democatic nominee, Trump would be annihilated. The problem you have though, is that this isn't a normal election: The likely Democratic candidate (Clinton) is an incredibly weak candidate, with one of the highest unfavorability ratings of any politican. Under these circumstances, in a Trump vs Clinton race, I think anything could happen.
I agree with this. A better example might be the rise of the SNP in ScotlandZenyatta wrote:As shown by the rise of Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, if the voting is restricted to a particular limited political constituency, some fairly extreme characters can rise to the top
When over 40% of the country voted for Independence, but missed out - they were angry and disillusioned. Many of those decided that the SNP were their party moving forward, as they best represented their views on Scotland's role within the UK. The result of this was mindboggling at the GE
If I was a member of UK's 3 major party, I'd be worried about the influence of UKIP after a referendum, if over 40% of the country votes for leaving Brexit