US Presidential Election 2016

[Zenyatta]

Curiously, Joe Bidens odds are still shortening.

Yes, some interesting things happening here. Trump's definitely taken hits, his prices have seriously drifted, although he's still the favourite to win the nomination. Cruz is surging, his price has really come in. And strangely, Romney and Ryan are now in the market.

The democratic side shows Sanders surging, the market thinks he's still got an outside chance to beat Clinton. And strangely, as you pointed out, Biden is now in the market and his price is shortening!

[Euler]

[Zenyatta]

As shown by the rise of Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, if the voting is restricted to a particular limited political constituency, some fairly extreme characters can rise to the top. So Trump could easily win the Republician nomination. However, it's almost always the case that for a general election (with a much wider constituency), sanity prevails and the extremists get badly beaten at the ballot ball.

In a normal general election, with any decent Democatic nominee, Trump would be annihilated. The problem you have though, is that this isn't a normal election: The likely Democratic candidate (Clinton) is an incredibly weak candidate, with one of the highest unfavorability ratings of any politican. Under these circumstances, in a Trump vs Clinton race, I think anything could happen.

[LeTiss]

As shown by the rise of Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, if the voting is restricted to a particular limited political constituency, some fairly extreme characters can rise to the top

I agree with this. A better example might be the rise of the SNP in Scotland

When over 40% of the country voted for Independence, but missed out - they were angry and disillusioned. Many of those decided that the SNP were their party moving forward, as they best represented their views on Scotland's role within the UK. The result of this was mindboggling at the GE

If I was a member of UK's 3 major party, I'd be worried about the influence of UKIP after a referendum, if over 40% of the country votes for leaving Brexit

[Euler]

This is an unusual election to say the least: -

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35793093

[vankancisco]

It will be interesting to see what happens after the in/out referendum, but I have a feeling it won't be such an emotive issue as Scottish Independence was. The rise of the SNP was also related to the demise of the Labour Party in Scotland, a demise that had its roots firmly established under New Labour.

The trump thing is fascinating, not so much the man himself - but the American reaction to him and what it says about the country. I found the model mentioned predicting >90% chance of Trump becoming president interesting. How can you model a candidate such as Trump?

[Euler]

Trump out to evens from 1.20

[gazuty]

Trump out to evens from 1.20

1237 looks unlikely. And if he doesn't get that he's very unlikely to win in a subsequent voting round because he had and has no ground game inside the Republican Party.

(I've got a massive - for me - red on trump, so all my comments can be discounted).

[gazuty]

Well then Cruz out following Indiana. looks like I'm going to be having a big pc holiday.

[The dog of ry]

At risk of sounding crass, did Trump shorten after the Orlando shootings? You'd think he's likely to get one or two more similar events to recruit more red-necks betweennow and the election

[Euler]

He slipped a little in the odds, given his hardline stance this sort of thing plays into his rhetoric.

That said, this was a US born citizen, so had little to do with immigration and the US is a nation of recent immigrants so it's a contradiction anyhow to moan about immigration. Perhaps if these words came from a native American then they would ring true.

It's going to be a fun election, Hilary is going to have to harden up.

[marksmeets302]

Something Bill had no problem with

[marksmeets302]

Finally some movement in the democratic nominee market! Now that Hillary won't be prosecuted for using her own mail server her odds are shortening.

[LeTiss]

After the events in Nice, we might see some movement around Trump's price - he's bound to push the buttons on the Americans over this

[Euler]

I can't believe how much the French are being targeted, have I missed something?

I think it's inevitable that Trump will run with the populist nationalist agenda and the democrats with the PC stance but it feels like the US will vote him in IMHO. I'd imagine there will be a concerted campaign to keep him out but with Brexit and Terror on the agenda I think it's highly likely he will get in.