US Presidential Election 2016

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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LeTiss
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Let's be honest here, there are too many people who want to be judged kindly, through this modern day obsession with Political Correctness

There will many people who have condemned Trump publicly, who actually agree with him privately

I suspect he will gain much support, as the ordinary man & woman will like the cut of his jib. In difficult times people like straight talkers, not pussy footing tree huggers
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gazuty
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Maybe the biggest wrong call I've ever made - when Trump was at 10 I drank the cool aid with a fire hose that an outsider who spent most of his life as a Democrat couldn't win the GOP nomination :shock: and built a massive (for me, maybe small for others) position against Trump.

If it all goes pear shaped then I guess I won't be paying PC for a month. :oops:
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LeTiss
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He hates Muslims gazuty

Whether you agree with him or not, that's currently a vote winner in most parts of the Western World
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Euler
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Zenyatta
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Might be worth firing in a Lay on Hillary Clinton, she's pretty short in the Presidental market now ($1.75 to win the Presidency).

Clinton's a competent and intelligent politician, but she lacks the 'likability' factor.

Bernie Sanders isn't far behind her in the polls, there's still a signficiant chance he might beat her to the democratic nomination.

If Clinton gets past Sanders , she will likely have to face Trump in the election. Whatever you may say about Trump, he knows how to win over a crowd. Clinton will have a fight on her hands, and the outcome is unpredictable.

LAY Clinton at $1.75.
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gazuty
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Zenyatta wrote:LAY Clinton at $1.75.
I completely disagree. But then again I've got the big red on Trump so I'm probably suffering from a big dose of bias on this issue.

I don't think Trump can win the general. And I still don't think he'll win the gop nomination (he says nervously in the lead up to Super Tuesday).

Doing the very opposite of what I say seems to be quite successful in political markets.
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Euler
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Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner

https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/ ... on-winner/
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LeTiss
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Euler wrote:Political science professor forecasts Trump as general election winner

https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/ ... on-winner/
That doesn't surprise me at all, Peter

USA has always been a very insular country, so many will love his attitude towards foreigners - Less than 50% of Americans have a passport, and only 10% take holidays outside of USA, so they don't tend to look beyond their noses (unless they are being attacked, or are trying to sell something)
Zenyatta
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Going into Super Tuesday, the markets give Trump a 77% chance of winning the Republician nomination, and a 26% chance of winning the presidency. In a heads-up Clinton vs. Trump poll-of-polls nationally, he only trails Clinton by around 5%. (48-43).
vankancisco
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There seems to be a growing feeling that Trump is capable of becoming president and he'll defeat Hilary Clinton if that is indeed the contest. I think history is against him in that most US presidents are elected on the centre ground, but I suppose we live in a moment where extreme entities can triumph - recent events prove that.
Zenyatta
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'Super Tuesday' concludes. Sorry gazuty, but Trump has cleaned up, clocking up big wins across the board. Cruz and Rubio only managed to take 2 and 1 states off him, respectively. The main market movement is the fall-off in Rubio's odds - a very poor performance from Rubio.

On the Democrat side, Clinton has also cleaned up by winning big, but Sanders is still hanging in there with a chance, winning 3 states, including his home state of Vermont.
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gazuty
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Zenyatta wrote:'Super Tuesday' concludes. Sorry gazuty, but Trump has cleaned up, clocking up big wins across the board. Cruz and Rubio only managed to take 2 and 1 states off him, respectively. The main market movement is the fall-off in Rubio's odds - a very poor performance from Rubio.

On the Democrat side, Clinton has also cleaned up by winning big, but Sanders is still hanging in there with a chance, winning 3 states, including his home state of Vermont.
Yep. The brokered convention is now my best hope.

I wouldn't use the words "cleaned up". I'd say Trump met, but did not exceed expectations (Ttrump does best with non Uni educated poorer whites). Cruz went better than expected by picking up oaklahoma, with his expected Texas win. Rubio almost snagged Virginia but his sub 20% performance in a few of the Southern states means he misses statewide delegate allocations he badly needs.

Ok updating this post courtesy of 538 - the likely delegate count from Super Tuesday is great for Cruz and bad for Rubio.

"Trump is on track to end up with about 262 delegates, Cruz is on track to win about 215, and Rubio is on track to win about 93. "
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Euler
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Cassetteboy vs The Apprentice - Donald Trump Edition

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgUAQ4ZGtgk
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Euler
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Sounds like the republicans are going to try and make life a bit harder for Trump, price may pop out a bit.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35712363
Zenyatta
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Euler wrote:Cassetteboy vs The Apprentice - Donald Trump Edition

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgUAQ4ZGtgk
TRUMP: ‘You know I’m not a gay man OK. But…I want to show you..the pictures of my balls’
TRUMP: ‘Take a look’.
FEMALE APPRENTICE: ‘Thank you’
MALE APPRENTICE: ‘It’s surprising to think that I’m the one who has bigger balls of the two of us’
*Laughs*
TRUMP: “I want to see all of you dropped to your knees. My balls will be going in your mouth. Piers, you’re first. So Piers, let’s get down to it. If you want you can watch, it will not be pretty’.
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