EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Euler
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Wouldn't a no confidence in the government trigger an election? So I think that's unlikely. You almost have two conservative parties now so they wouldn't win an election, they couldn't agree how many sugars to have in a coffee let alone a set of policies.
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LeTiss
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The DUP are propping up the government - they have been caught between a rock and a hard place, because they have major concerns over the Backstop agreement, but they also don't want to trigger a GE.

GE would be running the risk of Corbyn winning, and due to his longstanding links with the IRA, Corbyn is seen as the face of the devil in the eyes of the DUP
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Euler
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I agree the DUP would do anything to stop a Corbyn led government.
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PDC
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Euler wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:29 am
Wouldn't a no confidence in the government trigger an election?
No that is not the case, it would mean TM would have to step down but the Conservatives are allowed to try and form a government without having to hold a GE.
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ShaunWhite
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PDC wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:00 am
Euler wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:29 am
Wouldn't a no confidence in the government trigger an election?
No that is not the case, it would mean TM would have to step down but the Conservatives are allowed to try and form a government without having to hold a GE.
+1 Even as a life long Labour supporter it gives me no pleasure at all seeing this Tory chaos, and deep embarrassment at the blatent opportunistic attempts from Labour to get a GE.

From day one you could have written the script we're seeing played out. Brexit isn't a party issue, there should have been a cross-party coillition 'emergency' govt, as there was in WWII. Put the country first, not personal career interests fss !!!

Tbf who would want to win a GE now anyway, it'll be like being handed a baby with a full nappy. :? Labour are still being blamed for the US sub-prime mortage market crash and now they want Brexit on their CV.....madness.
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BetScalper
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If we all basically agree that the EU is run by Germany and France then who in their right mind ever thought they would give us a good deal.

Over the last 300 years we have had more wars with those 2 than any other country in the world.

Remember Napoleon and Hitler ?

The only options are to either cancel Brexit or No deal and WTO rules.

You can’t put a square peg in a round hole. I voted leave knowing what it meant because I had a plan B if things went badly.
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ShaunWhite
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BetScalper wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:48 pm
If we all basically agree that the EU is run by Germany and France.

Remember Napoleon and Hitler ?
Napolian was from an Italian family, albeit born in Corsica which is technically French. Hitler was Austrian.

But putting being a smart arse to one side I get your point. Where are all the people who said "oh I'm sure they'll be reasonable"

Btw shame to see the last Question Time with Dimbles. Looks like we're stuck with the smug self satisfied Ms Bruce for the next 25 yrs..... Time to open the Blue Nun I think and then get down to Lulu's for Dimbles leaving do. (non This Week viewers might be confused by that)
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Dallas
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:09 am


Btw shame to see the last Question Time with Dimbles. Looks like we're stuck with the smug self satisfied Ms Bruce for the next 25 yrs..... Time to open the Blue Nun I think and then get down to Lulu's for Dimbles leaving do. (non This Week viewers might be confused by that)
It's quite remarkable to see the shift in the audience demographic over those 25 years
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BetScalper
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So, the EU have said NO to changing the deal.

No surprise there.

Therefore we should not pay the £49 billion. And any foreign fisherman in UK waters after the 29th March 2019 should have their boat sunk. If they want a border in Ireland then the EU pays and patrols it.

It’s time the UK started playing tough and told the 27, including Eire to fcuk off.
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wearthefoxhat
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Office.PNG

IMO; A clear B2L trade or even "let it ride" for (May to leave office of PM before The UK to leave the EU)

Scenarios:

MP's vote No deal: --> Her position is untenable and resigns before March 29th.
2nd referendum offered: --> Populace vote to remain, UK doesn't leave.(PM steps down 2022)
2nd referendum offered: --> Populace vote No Deal, PM resigns before March 29th.
MP's vote in favour of PM deal. --> UK stay in EU. (PM steps down 2022)
PM gives up an resigns and says what a loads of bobbins, I'm off.
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to75ne
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BetScalper wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:34 am
So, the EU have said NO to changing the deal.

No surprise there.

Therefore we should not pay the £49 billion. And any foreign fisherman in UK waters after the 29th March 2019 should have their boat sunk. If they want a border in Ireland then the EU pays and patrols it.

It’s time the UK started playing tough and told the 27, including Eire to fcuk off.
are the eu not just doing their job of protecting the interests of their member states who wish to remain in the eu? and therefore look after their own interests at the expense of the uk.
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Euler
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The EU was always going to look after the interests of 27 versus 1, I don't know why people would think any different.

My experience of large organisations, including governments, is that they only act decisively when a crisis ensues. Up till then, they try to appease and placate. So I've always thought the final end game will be a chaotic period of uncertainty where a deal is done at the 11th hour. We are not in the 11th hour yet.
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brimson25
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I know people working in Whitehall now and have considerable experience there myself.

If I were the type of man to worry (I am), I wouldn't be wondering if Amazon were going to going to deliver my order (baseball bat, water, batteries, candles) or put me on a watchlist.

Or both.

;)
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ShaunWhite
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BetScalper wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:34 am
Therefore we should not pay the £49 billion.
The 49bn (i thought it was 39) is for committments we've already made and signed off years ago. If we start welching on done deals then nobody will be signing any new deals with us, because we can't be trusted.

Incidentally even £49bn is only about 800 quid each, this year British families will spend an average £821.25 on gifts.

So take your pick, restoration of the Empire and be a global superpower, or spend it on aftershave and novelty socks. I thought Leavers had vision and would see that as a bargain, or isnt' it worth that enormous sacrifice anymore?
BetScalper wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:34 am
If they want a border in Ireland then the EU pays and patrols it.
The EU don't wan't a border between them and Ireland, the '17 million' do. Maybe they should pay for it, afterall 29million people who didn't vote Leave aren't responsible for that bill.

..I'm not going to have a pointless debate, you can think whatever you want. It's just my take. :)
vankancisco
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The lack of clarity moving forward was always going to cause all sorts of problems. Just to think, the public voted on something that was impossible for them to understand. To put that in perspective, it's continuously unraveled as parliament has often failed to understand what is going on. There's various dimensions to this that will forge elements of the political landscape for generations to come. Could there be another referendum? You'd think not. But should a sustained deadlock occur the option of one will grow in plausibility. If further evidence comes to light about Russian involvement with elements of the Brexit campaign, it could sway things towards some sort of vote.
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