EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

[brimson25]

Lets hope so

[BetScalper]

I'm baffled. Where's the opportunity?

1. no-one knows what's going to happen.
2. least of all the participants.


Huge admiration for anyone who has an angle here. It's literally chaos.

It will get rejected, so do a George Soros and short the £.

[Euler]

Pound has already fallen a lot, so it would only be a no deal that would allow it to sink futher.

[BetScalper]

Pound has already fallen a lot, so it would only be a no deal that would allow it to sink futher.

I would be looking for a rally before London closes, put a sell order in, after the vote and when Asia opens, it could plummet further overnight, making a nice small fortune before London reopens on Wednesday.

It doesn’t have to fall that much in the short term for some nice profits.

[gstar1975]

I'm baffled. Where's the opportunity?

1. no-one knows what's going to happen.
2. least of all the participants.


Huge admiration for anyone who has an angle here. It's literally chaos.

These markets have a long time to mature so as soon as they open you have to start looking for reasons for entering at value prices, I was looking at the time frame the Government would need to process all the necessary legislation in time for Brexit date 29th March. So I started backing at around the 2.3-2.40 for Brexit not to happen on or before that date. Price is now around 1.25 a I fully expect Articale 50 to be extended. It's even looking like Brexit won't legally happened until 2022.

[brimson25]

Well done.

[PDC]

I'll spend a fair bit of today on the BREXIT markets, could be an interesting one.

What scenarios are you thinking might happen?

It is widely expected that the May deal is going to be voted down so that is obviously priced in. Once that is voted down she has 3 days to come back with something, that isn't going to happen today. It is widely expected that Corbin will put in a vote of no confidence but it will not lead to a general election because Turkey's don't vote for Christmas.

So I personally don't see much opportunity today in the markets, unless you are taking a view that goes against the widely expected results.

Also most of the action isn't going to happen until around 7pm onwards so I won't be spending time looking at the markets this afternoon, there will be much more opportunity in the racing markets. I may look this evening but I don't expect much to happen, though given others are posting here and on twitter how much they are looking at these markets and are focusing on them today I must be missing stuff.

I can see the moves happening in the following days as the rumor mill winds up as to what the next steps are.

[BetScalper]

I'll spend a fair bit of today on the BREXIT markets, could be an interesting one.

What scenarios are you thinking might happen?

It is widely expected that the May deal is going to be voted down so that is obviously priced in. Once that is voted down she has 3 days to come back with something, that isn't going to happen today. It is widely expected that Corbin will put in a vote of no confidence but it will not lead to a general election because Turkey's don't vote for Christmas.

So I personally don't see much opportunity today in the markets, unless you are taking a view that goes against the widely expected results.

Also most of the action isn't going to happen until around 7pm onwards so I won't be spending time looking at the markets this afternoon, there will be much more opportunity in the racing markets. I may look this evening but I don't expect much to happen, though given others are posting here and on twitter how much they are looking at these markets and are focusing on them today I must be missing stuff.

I can see the moves happening in the following days as the rumor mill winds up as to what the next steps are.

You will find that a large number of forex iceberg orders will be placed around certain price levels just before London closes at 3.55pm.

If these get actioned then there will be further downward price action when Asia opens.

And like most forex trading, there is always a rally towards the end of a markets close.

So, tomorrow at London open it may well appear that there has been no real movement. But overnight some will have made a small killing in the markets....

[PDC]

Sorry for the confusion but I was talking about the Betfair markets not the Forex markets as that is what Peter and Dallas were talking about I assumed when they said the 'Brexit markets' on here and on twitter as are other Betfair traders on Twitter.

[brimson25]

I'll spend a fair bit of today on the BREXIT markets, could be an interesting one.

What scenarios are you thinking might happen?

It is widely expected that the May deal is going to be voted down so that is obviously priced in. Once that is voted down she has 3 days to come back with something, that isn't going to happen today. It is widely expected that Corbin will put in a vote of no confidence but it will not lead to a general election because Turkey's don't vote for Christmas.

So I personally don't see much opportunity today in the markets, unless you are taking a view that goes against the widely expected results.

Also most of the action isn't going to happen until around 7pm onwards so I won't be spending time looking at the markets this afternoon, there will be much more opportunity in the racing markets. I may look this evening but I don't expect much to happen, though given others are posting here and on twitter how much they are looking at these markets and are focusing on them today I must be missing stuff.

I can see the moves happening in the following days as the rumor mill winds up as to what the next steps are.

That's my view, as well...

[Dallas]

One of the things I started doing was building a Dutch position on the number of 'Aye' votes
199 or less already in from 4.5 to 3.65

[ShaunWhite]

The thing that's hamstrung May is this mythical plan B providing an incentive to vote down plan A in the hope there's something better to be had. Both should be on the table today.

The problem with the 'leave by 29 march' market is the simplistic definition of 'leave'. I can imagine that market being voided and I'd be hesitant to use it to hedge any other positions. The BF rules anticipate 'ambiguity' and that's almost inevitable imo.

[Euler]

With this market as such lows, it must surely be a candidate for a wobble?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .153320849

[wearthefoxhat]

Office.PNG

Office.PNG

IMO; A clear B2L trade or even "let it ride" for (May to leave office of PM before The UK to leave the EU)

Scenarios:

MP's vote No deal: --> Her position is untenable and resigns before March 29th.
2nd referendum offered: --> Populace vote to remain, UK doesn't leave.(PM steps down 2022)
2nd referendum offered: --> Populace vote No Deal, PM resigns before March 29th.
MP's vote in favour of PM deal. --> UK stay in EU. (PM steps down 2022)
PM gives up an resigns and says what a loads of bobbins, I'm off.

Quick before price collapses...

2nd.PNG

[PDC]

With this market as such lows, it must surely be a candidate for a wobble?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .153320849

Can't see it myself, good luck though (I think you will need it)