EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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jimibt
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:23 pm
The good news story is that our new trade deal with the Faroe Islands is in place, so Jimi's supply of sweaters is safe.
... right, if only they can knit the rest of the UK back together then ;0
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Naffman
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Gives me confidence the govt. is finally on the right track if 3 of the most remain Tory MP's have quit
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ShaunWhite
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Anyone who works for a party and leaves after 30 yrs on principal, has to be admired even if you don't agree with their principals. Not a decision taken lightly. Hopefully a new centre party will emerge to better represent the bell curve of opinions, that's a good thing no matter where you stand personally. 52% said leave, 48% said remain, basic stats say that means about 70% would prefer an outcome within 1sd of the middle ground.

R4 Moral Maze had interesting and intelligent debate (no change there then) on The Moral Duties of MPs if anyone's interested in .
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:48 pm
Anyone who works for a party and leaves after 30 yrs on principal, has to be admired
If they're principled, they'd fight by-elections! #Soubry! #peoplesvote :D

Bit ranty there ;) , so I'll compromise by saying: Maybe a tiny back on GE in 2019 - exploit the splits. Good ol' fptp
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:05 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:48 pm
Anyone who works for a party and leaves after 30 yrs on principal, has to be admired
If they're principled, they'd fight by-elections! #Soubry! #peoplesvote :D

Bit ranty there ;) , so I'll compromise by saying: Maybe a tiny back on GE in 2019 - exploit the splits. Good ol' fptp
Since when did you start taking indiviual runners from a sample to using them to characterise the overall premise ? :D
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ruthlessimon
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Come on Shaun we both wanna see a Broxtowe market; it's free money :mrgreen:
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superfrank
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:48 pm
52% said leave, 48% said remain, basic stats say that means about 70% would prefer an outcome within 1sd of the middle ground.
It was a binary issue. The "middle ground" is just another form of Remain.

The 52% wanted change, not the status quo/middle ground that they're sick to death of. They were reliably informed that leaving would result in economic catastrophe and a possible 3rd world war but took the chance anyway.

That shower in the Independent [of Democracy] Group stood on a promise to implement Brexit. Failing to call by-elections is true to form for them.
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ticktake
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superfrank wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:43 pm
It was a binary issue. The "middle ground" is just another form of Remain.

The 52% wanted change, not the status quo/middle ground that they're sick to death of. They were reliably informed that leaving would result in economic catastrophe and a possible 3rd world war but took the chance anyway.

That shower in the Independent [of Democracy] Group stood on a promise to implement Brexit. Failing to call by-elections is true to form for them.
How was it binary?

Stay in or leave on wto would be binary. Stay in or "change" is not binary because the change could be anything - it's STILL unknown now.
rostov
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superfrank wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:43 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:48 pm
52% said leave, 48% said remain, basic stats say that means about 70% would prefer an outcome within 1sd of the middle ground.
It was a binary issue. The "middle ground" is just another form of Remain.

The 52% wanted change, not the status quo/middle ground that they're sick to death of. They were reliably informed that leaving would result in economic catastrophe and a possible 3rd world war but took the chance anyway.

That shower in the Independent [of Democracy] Group stood on a promise to implement Brexit. Failing to call by-elections is true to form for them.
Superfrank has super nailed it.
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wearthefoxhat
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superfrank wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:43 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:48 pm
52% said leave, 48% said remain, basic stats say that means about 70% would prefer an outcome within 1sd of the middle ground.

The 52% wanted change, not the status quo/middle ground that they're sick to death of. They were reliably informed that leaving would result in economic catastrophe and a possible 3rd world war but took the chance anyway.
With this, I sense the remain campaigners thought the doom and gloom strategy would scare everyone into their camp. The evening before it seemed to have worked as the odds were 1/4 odds on that remain would oblige.

David Cameron made his last ditch speech. ;)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 93426.html

2 years on, the doom that was predicted, hasn't materialised. Now, the new doom and gloom being broadcast, is the No-Deal scenario.

I believe the remain campaigners should have focussed on spinning positive(s) not the negatives(s). Even the now they are doing the same with the no deal scenario. If it goes back to the people, (Vote for the withdrawal agreement or a no deal scenario), there is a high probability the latter will win through based on the reason the project fear guys didn't learn their lesson 2 years ago.

Their campaign should be based on Project Fearless not Project Fear.
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PDC
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ticktake wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:25 am
How was it binary?

Stay in or leave on wto would be binary. Stay in or "change" is not binary because the change could be anything - it's STILL unknown now.
If we were to stay in it wouldn't be how we were before and if we were to go back now and ask to stay in the changes would have to be huge in order for them to let us back in. So the argument now of those asking for a 'People Vote' which includes Remain is just as misleading as the initial ref.
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brimson25
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:44 pm
brimson25 wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:30 pm
What about tinned beans, tin foil and candles?
Sleep easy on that one, Switzerland have some in a lockup garage they said we can have, ditto chocolate, cuckoo clocks and little penknives.
I always wanted one of those knives as a boy. Rightly, my parents denied me one, given how clumsy I was (and am) and so happily I have all my fingers and thumbs. :)
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superfrank
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from Brendan O'Neill, spiked magazine:

"The Independent Group of breakaway Labour and Tory MPs says it wants to shake up politics. How has it shaken things so far? Well, it has increased the number of political organisations in the House of Commons who either don’t want to or can’t deliver Brexit from six to seven. A true revolution! This is the reality of the democratic deficit in the UK: aside from the DUP, and even they’re flakey, there is no party that represents the most populous political sentiment in UK history – the vote for Brexit. The parties either push for Remain by another name (Tories and Labour) or for the delaying / thwarting of Brexit entirely (the rest of them). Politics needs a shake-up all right – but it won’t come from any of the dinosaurs, doublespeakers or hypocrites who currently make up the UK establishment."
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jimibt
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superfrank wrote:
Fri Feb 22, 2019 5:30 pm
from Brendan O'Neill, spiked magazine:

"The Independent Group of breakaway Labour and Tory MPs says it wants to shake up politics. How has it shaken things so far? Well, it has increased the number of political organisations in the House of Commons who either don’t want to or can’t deliver Brexit from six to seven. A true revolution! This is the reality of the democratic deficit in the UK: aside from the DUP, and even they’re flakey, there is no party that represents the most populous political sentiment in UK history – the vote for Brexit. The parties either push for Remain by another name (Tories and Labour) or for the delaying / thwarting of Brexit entirely (the rest of them). Politics needs a shake-up all right – but it won’t come from any of the dinosaurs, doublespeakers or hypocrites who currently make up the UK establishment."
i think that viewpoint tallies pretty well with their media profile: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/spiked-magazine/
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Dallas
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EU has a press conference scheduled for 9pm tonight so could be some market moves following that
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