EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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andyfuller
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Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

jimibt wrote:
marksmeets302 wrote:That's the ftse in pounds... convert it to any other currency and it's still down by a lot.
yes, the power of using data without balance (i.e. neglecting to factor in the weakmess (intentional typo) of the ££). it's scary that many will be suckered into thinking that last weeks' events were a flash in the pan and worse, many will continue to use false indicators to monitor the fallout.
It is a UK listing in £'s sterling so reference to it in terms of how it is trading to the $ or other currency is irrelevant imo. Or am I missing your point?

I don't recall ever hearing people reference any index in terms of another currency. Likewise when the £ was doing well against the $ recently I don't recall people saying the gains are x much great in the FTSE than they actually are.

You will always be able to find a currency that is doing better/worse to the native currency of a listing and make it fit the argument you want to make as to if the index is doing well or badly.
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marksmeets302
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I said it because I remember being surprised over the gain since 9/11 of the S&P500 vs the european indices, back in 2004. After compensating for the eur/usd, the graphs looked the same.

As far as the ftse goes, it's a product just like any other. If trading happens between two british people, the value of the pound doesn't matter. But as soon as you start selling it to a customer outside the UK, he will calculate what a fair price is in his currency.

There are advantages to a weaker pound, but once your government needs to buy goods or services in dollars they will need to exchange more pounds. How is the government getting more pounds? Taxes...
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Euler
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FTSE quite likley to rise in response to falling sterling as international companies that are listed on the FTSE will earning more on overseas earnings due to the fall in sterling.

My ULVR shares have done well since sterling bombed. I think it's too simplistic to say FTSE has risen so everything is rosy.
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Euler
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I'm sort of in the perfect position. I own UK equities which are rising again, but thanks to their performance I have a big US portfolio which is going up in value thanks to the drop in sterling.

It may be better for me to own ADR's in UK companies however?
Lost The Rider
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The FTSE100 is a poor indicator of trader sentiment regarding the economy due to its multinational makeup. The 250 is a better measure and, whilst a slight about turn today, has bombed since brexit.
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Euler
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andyfuller
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Euler wrote:FTSE quite likley to rise in response to falling sterling as international companies that are listed on the FTSE will earning more on overseas earnings due to the fall in sterling.
...
I think it's too simplistic to say FTSE has risen so everything is rosy.
Yes the FTSE company earnings are likely to rise when sterling drops due to the make up of the FTSE and where they largely operate.

My comment about the FTSE being back above pre-brexit levels was said tongue in cheek hence the ;) in the comment.

It was made largely in part due to all the hysteria that was made about the FTSE falling relatively little but given comments made about it you would have thought it had broken some huge levels, not those seen just 7 days previous. It is now back near levels not seen in the last 12 months. Yet that doesn't get the same coverage - though like with all things pretty much - good news doesn't sell.

So I think it is also too simplistic to see a fall in the FTSE as impending financial doom.

The FTSE 250 is much more representative of the UK economy and I wish it was quoted a lot more in reference to the UK and its economy.

House builders have proven quite tempting at current levels.
Lost The Rider wrote:The FTSE100 is a poor indicator of trader sentiment regarding the economy due to its multinational makeup. The 250 is a better measure and, whilst a slight about turn today, has bombed since brexit.
Yes it has dropped since the actual vote but in the days leading up to the vote the index rose as remain became more likely. It is already back to levels seen in mid-june and I don't remember seeing much coverage of it being at worryingly low levels two weeks ago. Or when it was a 1,000 points lower in Feb. It is currently mid-52 week range.

Can't say I am particularly worried about my investments - doubt recent levels will even register with me in years to come.
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Euler
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The business impact is unlikely to be felt for a while. Currently, the business mood is one of postponing projects, recruitment freezes and cancelled contracts. Will take a while to filter through. The UK is unlikely to attract much new inwards investment until a clear picture emerges. The currently political situations is causing the date for that to arrive to drift off into the future at the moment. It's a right good old British mess. Needs very strong leadership.
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Euler
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And people wondered why the majority voted leave: -

https://www.rt.com/news/349063-istanbul ... nd-asylum/
Jamie
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Who on earth (apart from the power-mad) would want this? :-

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/ ... ate-Brexit

More power in fewer hands is never a good idea.
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Euler
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spreadbetting
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Euler wrote:And people wondered why the majority voted leave: -

https://www.rt.com/news/349063-istanbul ... nd-asylum/

Maybe if countries like Russia didn't have such bad human rights records more countries would be happy to allow extradition to them. And RT news is hardly going to be critical of Russia is it? Sadly the majority of voters, on both sides, were too apathetic to look behind the moral panic grabbing headlines.
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Dallas
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The plot thickens, that's very interesting yet not wholly surprising
spreadbetting
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Wherever there's betting they'll be allegations of rigging especially from the losing side and even more so if it's assumed a stone cold certainty. Considering the Director of the Betting Research Unit and Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School was originally touting this as being rigged in the opposite direction just shows how often the academics and city get these things wrong. You only have to note how wrong the pollsters and bookies got the Tory majority at the last election to see these aren't isolated.

I'd be inclined to believe a lot of the errors come from the pollsters and city being far too London centric and living in their own little bubble.
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Euler
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Article 50 appears to be a catch 22?

https://spinninghugo.wordpress.com/2016 ... e-invoked/
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