EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

[Dallas]

One of the things I started doing was building a Dutch position on the number of 'Aye' votes
199 or less already in from 4.5 to 3.65

[ShaunWhite]

The thing that's hamstrung May is this mythical plan B providing an incentive to vote down plan A in the hope there's something better to be had. Both should be on the table today.

The problem with the 'leave by 29 march' market is the simplistic definition of 'leave'. I can imagine that market being voided and I'd be hesitant to use it to hedge any other positions. The BF rules anticipate 'ambiguity' and that's almost inevitable imo.

[Euler]

With this market as such lows, it must surely be a candidate for a wobble?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .153320849

[wearthefoxhat]

Office.PNG

Office.PNG

IMO; A clear B2L trade or even "let it ride" for (May to leave office of PM before The UK to leave the EU)

Scenarios:

MP's vote No deal: --> Her position is untenable and resigns before March 29th.
2nd referendum offered: --> Populace vote to remain, UK doesn't leave.(PM steps down 2022)
2nd referendum offered: --> Populace vote No Deal, PM resigns before March 29th.
MP's vote in favour of PM deal. --> UK stay in EU. (PM steps down 2022)
PM gives up an resigns and says what a loads of bobbins, I'm off.

Quick before price collapses...

2nd.PNG

[PDC]

With this market as such lows, it must surely be a candidate for a wobble?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .153320849

Can't see it myself, good luck though (I think you will need it)

[Euler]

I'm not looking for it to be overturned, just wobble a bit.

[PDC]

Yes, I understand that. I just don't see it, I actually am surprised it hasn't gone no offer as I deem it a shorter than 1.01 chance, so I should really be backing it as I think it is value.

Given the price I can see why you are interested in laying it as it doesn't cost much, I just don't see it wobbling but I am happy to be proved wrong.

You need the rumor mill to get going significantly.

[to75ne]

i am watching the commons live debating this and only about a third of mp's are in the chamber? they cant even be bothered with the debate.

[ruthlessimon]

I deem it a shorter than 1.01 chance, so I should really be backing it as I think it is value.

Limit @ 1.02, don't give away the value yet!

I personally think the layers are mad - biased for a huge payoff

Cronies. Are. Predictable.

[wearthefoxhat]

i am watching the commons live debating this and only about a third of mp's are in the chamber? they cant even be bothered with the debate.

Can imagine frantic scenes in the corridors as the "whips" try and convince hard liners to support the "withdrawal agreement."

The debate in the commons is just TV time for the MP's. No one will be swayed by any of the speeches for sure.

PM is probably looking at PlanB in 3 working days and/or her future, PlanC...

[Naffman]

The European economy is a mess right now, surely Brexit being in the news even on the mainland is diverting everyone's attention to this...can see it dragging on

[ShaunWhite]

i am watching the commons live debating this and only about a third of mp's are in the chamber? they cant even be bothered with the debate.

It just protocol having that debate. The real action is happening with thumbscrews in the basement. Malcolm Tucker would be loving it.

The BBC are dicing with the watershed rules with that new enormous yellow "Bollocks to Brexit" bus circling in the background

[Dallas]

I've had to turn off the news channels an hour or so ago, that moron ringing the bell from his market-cart all afternoon has given me an actual headache.

[ShaunWhite]

According to the World Service last night there's no way the EU would allow us to back out of Article 50. Nobody wants us back cos we had a preferential deal already and were still a pain in the ass. There's a large, entirely predictable and understandable sentiment of fupp you.

Other World Service news says our new trade deals won't be as good as the current RoW/EU deals we already enjoyed. Everyone is taking the opportunity to improve their deals as we're weakened. Surprise surprise.

[Dallas]

According to the World Service last night there's no way the EU would allow us to back out of Article 50. Nobody wants us back cos we had a preferential deal already and were still a pain in the ass. There's a large, entirely predictable and understandable sentiment of fupp you.

Earlier today I saw on the BBC site that the Europen court ruled it would be legal for us to revoke article 50 and cancel Brexit without any agreement from the EU