EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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BetScalper
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:lol:
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Dallas
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Dallas wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:11 pm
4.1 seems a decent price for May to be gone by June 2019?
Price now into 1.6 this morning
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wearthefoxhat
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Dallas wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 10:09 am
Dallas wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:11 pm
4.1 seems a decent price for May to be gone by June 2019?
Price now into 1.6 this morning

Yep, this one too.

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TheRiddler
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Remainers,leavers,celebs, etc all sing from the same hymn sheet. It is quite frankly a joke that a dumb population (as popular social media sites prove) should have any voice at all when all they can do is lead one off a cliff edge wearing a gormless smile. Look at the bigger picture upto decade from now . If we are still with the union, we sink with them. If we are not then we burn, led by a bunch of self serving incompetents on all sides. The people are dumbing down which is good for all experienced traders because that means the markets are dumbing down too. :lol:
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jimibt
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was a nice little item on the weekends *The Now Show*.

Seems a french polician has named her cat Brexit!! Why?? - because it meeows loudly to be let out of the door but then just stands looking once the door has been opened :D
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ShaunWhite
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With millions of complacent remainers turning out next time who didn't think they had to last time, the result would be easy money if opinion was tested again. The leaver turnout must have been very close to peak numbers.

A confirmed electorate of 46,500,001 and 17,410,742 voted leave? As they say, do the math.

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Courtesy of Sir John Curtis and Peter Kellner
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Dallas
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It was meant to be easy money last time around, with a price of 1.04/1.05 ish to back remain on the night before and a lot of people got badly stung

If we've learnt one thing from trading political markets in the last few years it's how opinion polls always manage to get it spectacularly wrong, we only have to look at the last four major votes there has been - the referendum, the US election, and both our last two elections they got none right.
dt888
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Couldn’t agree more Dallas.

Anybody thinking any of these types of markets are easy money, be careful, because as Dallas says you only need to look at the outcome of recent events and how opinion polls have been so very wrong
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ShaunWhite
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dt888 wrote:
Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:41 pm
Couldn’t agree more Dallas.

Anybody thinking any of these types of markets are easy money, be careful, because as Dallas says you only need to look at the outcome of recent events and how opinion polls have been so very wrong
I know what you're saying but politics is my football, this is my world cup. I've been doing just fine. ;)
dt888
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:18 pm
dt888 wrote:
Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:41 pm
Couldn’t agree more Dallas.

Anybody thinking any of these types of markets are easy money, be careful, because as Dallas says you only need to look at the outcome of recent events and how opinion polls have been so very wrong
I know what you're saying but politics is my football, this is my world cup. I've been doing just fine. ;)
Glad to hear you are doing well on them Shuan.

There have obviously been some crackers in recent years, I hope there are more to come!
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ShaunWhite
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dt888 wrote:
Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:58 pm
Glad to hear you are doing well on them Shaun.
There have obviously been some crackers in recent years, I hope there are more to come!
thx. I can't honestly say they've all been beauties but I'm doing ok. Having all the related markets certainly helps.

My bellwether on sociopolitical events is my old mum's bowls club (aka the 3rd Reich), some of them are getting mighty nervous now their hospital appointments are being postponed. A Brexit delay would probably last longer than most of them.
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Dallas
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Glad I fully got out of my 'May leave date' trade when I did, it's just bounced well above 2.4s
Since her 'back and I'll go' statement the early market reaction is not expecting her to get her deal through!

Next few days are going to be very interesting across several markets
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Euler
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Wouldn't it be funny if they voted no to all the amendments this evening.
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Dallas
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Dallas wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 10:09 am
Dallas wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:11 pm
4.1 seems a decent price for May to be gone by June 2019?
Price now into 1.6 this morning
Following tonights DUP announcement, that they won't be backing May's deal here price to be gone by June19 is now back out to where it was two weeks ago at 4.2
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Dallas
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Some of these political markets are like Friday night sellers at Wolves
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