EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

[Dallas]

Letters now confirmed as in,

Vote of no confidence to take place between 6pm-8pm

[LeTiss]

Vote of no confidence was trading at 2.28 only a few days back. I had a look, but the liquidity wasn't great, so I refrained. £134k traded within the last 30 mins

[Naffman]

'Yes' has traded at 1.01/02 for a couple of thousand - now trading at 3.0

[Euler]

Odds on to win the vote: -

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .152437591

I'm not sure what a leadership contest will do. Just add more uncertainty to the mix. It's almost as though a classic divide and conquer set up has been put in place.

I can't see what the conservatives will gain from this?

[jimibt]

so the actual market in betfair is called: UK - Party Leaders - Exit Dates - Theresa May

as TM is both the leader of the party and the prime minister, i presume this market is purely covering the role of party leader. thus, she could be ousted as party leader, but still be caretaker PM until a new leader was found. this imho makes the determination of this market close a bit muddy!!

btw- my hat is in he ring for her to be ousted as party leader at 21:00 tonite!!

[Nero Tulip]

this vote will strengthen May imo. not sure what it does regarding the deal or brexit however.

[Euler]

There is still money being offered at 1.01 quite frequently for a 'will there be a no-confidence vote' so maybe some people think it won't go ahead?

[PDC]

There is still money being offered at 1.01 quite frequently for a 'will there be a no-confidence vote' so maybe some people think it won't go ahead?

More likely probably just freeing up their balance so it can be used elsewhere where it can be put to use and earn a greater return than what it costs laying off at 1.01.

[superfrank]

Odds on to win the vote: -

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .152437591

I'm not sure what a leadership contest will do. Just add more uncertainty to the mix. It's almost as though a classic divide and conquer set up has been put in place.

I can't see what the conservatives will gain from this?

They're just exasperated. "Brexit means Brexit" my @rse!

It's a secret ballot so they'll be plenty pledging support in public but voting against her.

[Euler]

There is still money being offered at 1.01 quite frequently for a 'will there be a no-confidence vote' so maybe some people think it won't go ahead?

More likely probably just freeing up their balance so it can be used elsewhere where it can be put to use and earn a greater return than what it costs laying off at 1.01.

Seems to exceed that required by all positions on the market, so it looks like somebody feeding it.

[sionascaig]

Probably Michael Green thinks he's found a tax wheez...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... xit-coffee

[SeaHorseRacing]

Something doesn’t add up...

Apparently 158 for May and 33 against... but it’s taken 48 to make the no confidence vote?
So what’s happened to the other 15?

I think the torries are about to stab May in the back.

Jacob Rees Mog must be prime minister next but I bet he doesn’t.

[PDC]

Odds on to win the vote

Might be my old age kicking in but I seem to remember another small political vote a few years back in the UK that was odds on leading up to it that didn't quite turn out the way the market and most people in the MSM expected it to.

Seemed to have something to do with people saying one thing in public but doing another in private

[jimibt]

Seemed to have something to do with people saying one thing in public but doing another in private

you wouldn't have needed to read any single part of this thread, other than that comment to entirely grasp the category of individual we're dealing with here

[Dallas]

Odds on to win the vote

Might be my old age kicking in but I seem to remember another small political vote a few years back in the UK that was odds on leading up to it that didn't quite turn out the way the market and most people in the MSM expected it to.

Seemed to have something to do with people saying one thing in public but doing another in private

I think its been like that on just about every major political vote that's done that in recent years

Brexit
Last election / Tory majority
US Presidency