EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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to75ne
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BetScalper wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:34 am
So, the EU have said NO to changing the deal.

No surprise there.

Therefore we should not pay the £49 billion. And any foreign fisherman in UK waters after the 29th March 2019 should have their boat sunk. If they want a border in Ireland then the EU pays and patrols it.

It’s time the UK started playing tough and told the 27, including Eire to fcuk off.
are the eu not just doing their job of protecting the interests of their member states who wish to remain in the eu? and therefore look after their own interests at the expense of the uk.
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Euler
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The EU was always going to look after the interests of 27 versus 1, I don't know why people would think any different.

My experience of large organisations, including governments, is that they only act decisively when a crisis ensues. Up till then, they try to appease and placate. So I've always thought the final end game will be a chaotic period of uncertainty where a deal is done at the 11th hour. We are not in the 11th hour yet.
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brimson25
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I know people working in Whitehall now and have considerable experience there myself.

If I were the type of man to worry (I am), I wouldn't be wondering if Amazon were going to going to deliver my order (baseball bat, water, batteries, candles) or put me on a watchlist.

Or both.

;)
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ShaunWhite
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BetScalper wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:34 am
Therefore we should not pay the £49 billion.
The 49bn (i thought it was 39) is for committments we've already made and signed off years ago. If we start welching on done deals then nobody will be signing any new deals with us, because we can't be trusted.

Incidentally even £49bn is only about 800 quid each, this year British families will spend an average £821.25 on gifts.

So take your pick, restoration of the Empire and be a global superpower, or spend it on aftershave and novelty socks. I thought Leavers had vision and would see that as a bargain, or isnt' it worth that enormous sacrifice anymore?
BetScalper wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 8:34 am
If they want a border in Ireland then the EU pays and patrols it.
The EU don't wan't a border between them and Ireland, the '17 million' do. Maybe they should pay for it, afterall 29million people who didn't vote Leave aren't responsible for that bill.

..I'm not going to have a pointless debate, you can think whatever you want. It's just my take. :)
vankancisco
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The lack of clarity moving forward was always going to cause all sorts of problems. Just to think, the public voted on something that was impossible for them to understand. To put that in perspective, it's continuously unraveled as parliament has often failed to understand what is going on. There's various dimensions to this that will forge elements of the political landscape for generations to come. Could there be another referendum? You'd think not. But should a sustained deadlock occur the option of one will grow in plausibility. If further evidence comes to light about Russian involvement with elements of the Brexit campaign, it could sway things towards some sort of vote.
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LeTiss
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I am closely monitoring the market 'UK to leave the EU by 29/3/19'

£761k matched and NO has been backed to 1.25, depsite the PM insistence that it must happen

Could be an interesting market to trade today with the Commons vote
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Euler
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I'll spend a fair bit of today on the BREXIT markets, could be an interesting one.
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Dallas
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Today I'm going to feel more like a financial day trader
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brimson25
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I'm baffled. Where's the opportunity?

1. no-one knows what's going to happen.
2. least of all the participants.


Huge admiration for anyone who has an angle here. It's literally chaos.
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Dallas
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Chaos = opportunity
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brimson25
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Lets hope so
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BetScalper
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brimson25 wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:39 am
I'm baffled. Where's the opportunity?

1. no-one knows what's going to happen.
2. least of all the participants.


Huge admiration for anyone who has an angle here. It's literally chaos.
It will get rejected, so do a George Soros and short the £.
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Euler
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Pound has already fallen a lot, so it would only be a no deal that would allow it to sink futher.
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BetScalper
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Euler wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:34 am
Pound has already fallen a lot, so it would only be a no deal that would allow it to sink futher.
I would be looking for a rally before London closes, put a sell order in, after the vote and when Asia opens, it could plummet further overnight, making a nice small fortune before London reopens on Wednesday.

It doesn’t have to fall that much in the short term for some nice profits.
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gstar1975
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brimson25 wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:39 am
I'm baffled. Where's the opportunity?

1. no-one knows what's going to happen.
2. least of all the participants.


Huge admiration for anyone who has an angle here. It's literally chaos.
These markets have a long time to mature so as soon as they open you have to start looking for reasons for entering at value prices, I was looking at the time frame the Government would need to process all the necessary legislation in time for Brexit date 29th March. So I started backing at around the 2.3-2.40 for Brexit not to happen on or before that date. Price is now around 1.25 a I fully expect Articale 50 to be extended. It's even looking like Brexit won't legally happened until 2022.
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