EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

Junker scheduled to make a statement this evening if he's sober enough.

By any measure May has failed - her BRINO "deal" clearly didn't fool enough people.
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BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

What we need is a good old war.

Where’s Cromwell when you need him ?

Gufawkes had the right idea but badly executed. Lucky he slipped on the ladder and broke his neck otherwise the fate awaiting him would have been horrific and rather painful....
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Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

EU says tell us what you want then when UK does and they just say sorry all the member states have already agreed a brexit deal, the EU has to budge otherwise it'll be a stalemate for the foreseeable future as I can't see how May loses a no confidence vote.
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megarain
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Forex move was interesting.

Spike down a bit, then has clawed back most of todays losses.

Anybodys guess what happens over next 2 mths, but, it seems the bears are losing some grip.

I dont c EU giving much (if anything). Sorta thinking another referendum might happen.

GBP currently 1.2860 to US .. was 1.5x pre brexit referendum .. and has been as low as 1.22
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Naffman
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Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Was just going to say that megarain...not complaining but very odd

And agree the EU won't give anything, they are loving this
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Euler
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Y, sterling bounced quite a bit. I think most of the bad news was already in the price. I mentioned that a bit earlier as a view on it.

Not sure where it goes from here though!
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Naffman
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Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

If the backstop is the only thing stopping the deal and the EU aren't willing to budge then I think it's fairly obvious they planned on keeping the UK in the customs union indefinitely
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Naffman
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Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Govt. 1.05 to win no confidence vote tomorrow, don't even both Jezza
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ruthlessimon
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Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

I wonder how many MPs bet on their own votes. I don't think there are any regs against it

If there are, I'll go half with Whitehead for a quick text as he goes through the lobby 8-)
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BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Many MPs went against their constituents who voted leave.

Can they not be publicly hanged for treason against the people ?

I’m up for pulling the leaver free of charge.
soccersaint
Posts: 79
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2017 1:10 pm

My crystal ball says in March not May :mrgreen: Auntie May gets her last minute deal, we exit and brexit and she exits very very swiftly...followed in by everyone’s favourite hound dog Boris....

My ball shows a Europe in melt down and a Putin vs Trump stand off later in the year.....that might mean we get that war after all :mrgreen:
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PDC
Posts: 2272
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2016 5:52 pm

PDC wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:24 pm
Euler wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:01 pm
With this market as such lows, it must surely be a candidate for a wobble?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .153320849
Can't see it myself, good luck though (I think you will need it)
I wasn't watching the markets last night, as I said before I couldn't see much happening that wasn't already expected which turned out to be the case, but did the market wobble at all prior to the vote? I would have guessed not, if anything I would have, as I said, gone to no offer?
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Euler
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Nope, nothing at all, just one-way traffic. I switched to looking at the scale of the vote instead. In hindsight, there wasn't a big enough time scale to insert some uncertainty. Speaking of which: -

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .153668551
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PDC
Posts: 2272
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2016 5:52 pm

Thanks for the reply. Tonight's vote also looks a done deal, so I think you will have a similar fate if looking for a bounce on that market. Again the current price of 1.04 looks value to me.

The weekend should be an interesting period to see where next on Monday but I won't be spending time looking at the markets.

Anyone who didn't see it should watch the Andrew Neil interview with Matt Hankcock from last night just after the vote, Neil at his best. Start watching from 47:30:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b ... l-15012019
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Euler
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

It would be a massive shock if the government did lose a no-confidence vote.
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