EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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convoysur-2
Posts: 1110
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am

Euler wrote:From a personal perspective I would like to stay in the EU because I want the right to travel, live and work where I wish without a problem.

However I don't think the EU has brought much of the way in benefits as it's supposed to. Just look at the betting industry. When we started we serviced all EU countries. One by one they have all gone. So much for a free market.

So I'm not convinced by either argument.
and all the potential gouverments in this election ,this month in ireland are for taxing betting ,
so im sure it will be the end of betfair here just like the other countries that have gone that way,
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

I don't know enough about the economic factors but surely there is a relationship between this market and GBP/EUR. Whether its mean reversion or one moving before the other, I would assume that the fx market is more accurate than betfair?
convoysur-2
Posts: 1110
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well all this talk is certainly devaluing the sterling
this a a monthly chart
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Crazyskier
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convoysur-2 wrote:well all this talk is certainly devaluing the sterling
this a a monthly chart

I very nearly purchased a property in Caleta De Fuste last summer, (Islas Canarias) when I could have had a bank exchange rate of 1.41 Euros to the pound...

Yes, I expect the pound to plummet to around 1:1.1 until we decide to stay in the Eu, when it will undoubtedly rebound.
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superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

Crazyskier wrote:Yes, I expect the pound to plummet to around 1:1.1 until we decide to stay in the Eu, when it will undoubtedly rebound.
Brexit could well be a positive for the £ if it happens - it's the uncertainty causing the current weakness and markets believing some of the official scaremongering. The fundamentals of the UK economy mean it's still toast long-term though (in or out).
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Given the unfortunate events this morning, I'm surprised the in number hasn't drifted a bit more.
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

23rd Feb

Matched £2.7M

Stay 1.54
Leave 2.84


This would suggest it's going to be very close

I suspect we may see a GE within the next 12 months, as I believe a number of Euro Sceptic Tories may defect to UKIP

With just a 12 seat majority, this would place Cameron on very thin ice
vankancisco
Posts: 75
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:54 pm

Obviously this vote could be event driven to some extent, but the leavers will have to start winning some of the arguments soon if they are to stand any chance. They seem to be sticking to stats and figures that lack any sort of integrity - and they need to prove the case to leave rather than the other way around. I've seen a few debates in the last 48 hrs regarding border control sparked by the Brussels terrorist attack. Amazingly it was the to remain argument that was easily coming out on top.
convoysur-2
Posts: 1110
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am

Any of you know what has caused the leave vote to come in more ?
i may have missed something in the news ?its quite a strong move
Marc
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LeTiss
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Good question, because I'm not 100% sure myself. I think there's just a growing disillusionment with the current situation, and it's not helped by George Osbourne delivering his presention for the EU, but ultimately admitting that immigration will increase by 3million

What's the feeling in Northern Ireland?

I know many are suggesting the Irish border may become unstable in the event of Brexit
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Euler
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I would imagine a brexit would be great for NIE & IRE as lots of people are exploring or actually setting up business there so they can have the best of both worlds.
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Euler
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President Obama flew over last night to drop a bomb on the leave campaign it seems!

So little movement in this market though, which is really unusual.
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LeTiss
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You can see this heading the same way as Scotland's Independence vote - that became a little confrontational and at times unsavoury.

I suspect this will too in the days leading up to 23rd June
PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

I missed a trick with the Obama visit as he was only going to be supporting one side, I just didnt think he would be so vocal

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/br ... 416-6.html
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marksmeets302
Posts: 527
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

I'm in full Kahneman mode lately. You could argue that a large portion of UK voters has a choice between a near certainty of not improving their wealth, and a small chance of improving (and a big chance of a disaster).

Given the choice between two bad options most people will choose the risky one.
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