EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

[superfrank]

Carney at it again today predicting recession if we leave - if any of his other forecasts are a guide then expect the exact opposite.

Project Fear now just requires the prediction of a flood and a plague of locusts and we'll have had the lot.

[convoysur-2]

whats making it move tonight ?
is it the release of the BRITEXIT movie documentry ?

[LeTiss]

I think the Stay campaign has been better organised.

Also, this has been Boris Johnson's audition for Conservative Leader and maybe even PM, and I think he has failed miserably.

He's such a loose cannon, which is fine for comical soundbites, but when it comes to very serious topics of debate he just launches into subjects without thinking, and ends up looking like an absolute burke

[LeTiss]

3rd June
Matched £17.8 Million

1.37 Stay
3.6 Leave

This market really is fluctuating. It's proving quite difficult to predict the trends, because it's reacting to news on a daily basis

The TV head to head Cameron vs Farage on 7th June will be interesting on the markets. That will be a must 'IP' trade

[Euler]

Broker notes starting to go around asking for higher margin requirements in the run up to the referendum.

[Euler]

Many thanks to Caan for sending this article over to me this morning: -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... ger---and/

We have a full opinion from Kahneman!

[marksmeets302]

I really must thank you for mentioning this book. Right now it seems odd I paid no attention to it earlier (I thought I already knew this stuff, lol). Now the book and Kahnemanesque situations pop up everywhere. I visited a friend last week and she had two copies of Thinking, fast & slow on her shelf. I asked her and she responded: actually one is for lending out, and my daughters each have one as well. Go figure.

Back to the EU referendum: after the dutch referendum it became clear to me that people not always vote with their wallet in mind.

[Zapata]

Shock 10 point lead in latest ORB poll for 'Leave'.

Price move in progress.

[LeTiss]

Shock 10 point lead in latest ORB poll for 'Leave'.

Price move in progress.

I was down my local last Thursday - there was 11 of us there, and 8 are voting Leave

It will be interesting to see the ultimate breakdown of votes on 23rd - I suspect it may mirror UKIP's demographic at the last European elections. London will vote overwhelmingly to remain, the rest of the country will vote marginally to leave - it's just a case of how they balance out

It will show though that London is a country in itself, it has nothing in common with anywhere else in England, especially the people

[Zapata]

Breitbart London have a breakdown. London is 44% are stay, 56% leave according to ORB, but you know what polls are like.

My local newspaper (staunch Labour) have run a poll today Leave 71% from 1400 votes.

[Dallas]

From the debate shows i've seen this week and Question time last night IMO at the moment 'leave' seem to becoming out on top in all of them and getting there argument across much better

[hgodden]

A lot will depend on voter turnout by age. There's a striking difference between those under 35 who want to stay as opposed to over 35 who want to leave.

http://qz.com/700989/how-brits-of-all-s ... eferendum/

[LeTiss]

Yes, a valid point hgodden

However, I think that simply shows that older people are totally disillusioned at what this country has become

[PeterLe]

A lot will depend on voter turnout by age. There's a striking difference between those under 35 who want to stay as opposed to over 35 who want to leave.

The Guardian reported that the young voter could hold the key to victory :-

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... exit-leave

The image attached shows the turnout of young voter in the general election 2015, nearly 50% dont seem to be bothered to vote for whatever reason

I know very few people who say they will vote to remain in (young and old)

[superfrank]

The remain campaign is in trouble judging by the tactics of shouting, insults and smears (ITV debate).

Re the market I think it is expecting the remain side to be able to pull through because of all the resources, establish support and media support it has but maybe people of have had enough of being told what's good for them.

Good quote from elsewhere... "You have a referendum to find out what people want. That is how democracy is supposed to work. Someone should explain this to the establishment."