EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

[Euler]

I would imagine a brexit would be great for NIE & IRE as lots of people are exploring or actually setting up business there so they can have the best of both worlds.

[Euler]

President Obama flew over last night to drop a bomb on the leave campaign it seems!

So little movement in this market though, which is really unusual.

[LeTiss]

You can see this heading the same way as Scotland's Independence vote - that became a little confrontational and at times unsavoury.

I suspect this will too in the days leading up to 23rd June

[PeterLe]

I missed a trick with the Obama visit as he was only going to be supporting one side, I just didnt think he would be so vocal

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/br ... 416-6.html

[marksmeets302]

I'm in full Kahneman mode lately. You could argue that a large portion of UK voters has a choice between a near certainty of not improving their wealth, and a small chance of improving (and a big chance of a disaster).

Given the choice between two bad options most people will choose the risky one.

[Euler]

The way I read it at the moment, in the same mode, is that people will fear uncertainty (loss aversion) more than hatred for the established system, so will vote at the last minute for established and unhappy certainty, than anything that could screw things up.

[LeTiss]

I think 'Stay' will almost certainly win, even though I won't be voting that way

However, as I've mentioned previously in this thread, I think it will change British politics anyway. SNP used the Scottish Independence vote to become a more legitimate party, and I believe UKIP have the springboard to do the same

I'd be very worried if I was a Lib Dem supporter. I think they are on the road to oblivion

[Dallas]

Voting out is out but voting stay still gives the option of another Referendum in 5 years I think that will have a significant factor in the result along with Peters earlier comment about unhappy certainty.

Its a bit like now the Brexit option is at least on the table we ll take the safer one this time knowing in 5 years if things have gone pear shaped or have nt improved we ll have another one and this time we ll be gone

[onemichael]

Voting out is out but voting stay still gives the option of another Referendum in 5 years

This is not going to happen. There will never be another chance to vote out. However, given the stance of all governments not to give a referendum over the last 40years, one thing is for certain the EU will demand another vote as they have done when other referendums have not gone their way.

[Zapata]

The Co-President of the EU Green group has joined the Director of the EU Asia Centre, Fraser Cameron, in calling for referenda to be banned across the EU.

Rebecca Harms MEP, a German Green MEP, wants to ban referenda on things that she thinks aren't suitable such as the €uro, immigration and trade agreements. Fraser Cameron went further the other day, calling for an outright ban on referenda.

Europhiles are unhappy at having to very publicly ignore the result of a Dutch referendum on an EU treaty with Ukraine which was rejected at the ballot box. The EU preference is not to ask voters for opinions because they might not get the "right" answer and then they have to go to the effort of rigging another referendum to make sure they get the result they wanted or just ignoring the result which leads people to ask inconvenient questions about democracy and why they no longer have any.

[superfrank]

Carney at it again today predicting recession if we leave - if any of his other forecasts are a guide then expect the exact opposite.

Project Fear now just requires the prediction of a flood and a plague of locusts and we'll have had the lot.

[convoysur-2]

whats making it move tonight ?
is it the release of the BRITEXIT movie documentry ?

[LeTiss]

I think the Stay campaign has been better organised.

Also, this has been Boris Johnson's audition for Conservative Leader and maybe even PM, and I think he has failed miserably.

He's such a loose cannon, which is fine for comical soundbites, but when it comes to very serious topics of debate he just launches into subjects without thinking, and ends up looking like an absolute burke

[LeTiss]

3rd June
Matched £17.8 Million

1.37 Stay
3.6 Leave

This market really is fluctuating. It's proving quite difficult to predict the trends, because it's reacting to news on a daily basis

The TV head to head Cameron vs Farage on 7th June will be interesting on the markets. That will be a must 'IP' trade

[Euler]

Broker notes starting to go around asking for higher margin requirements in the run up to the referendum.