UK General Election **June 8th**

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
Post Reply
User avatar
marksmeets302
Posts: 527
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Euler wrote:
Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
What's the political situation in the Netherlands? I have a friend who has relocated from California to Amsterdam for six months.
Well, there's a long story and a short one. I'll do the short one here. I'm planning on going to London to visit friends. If you want I can give you the long story then :-) (Would love to meet you anyway)
It seems the populists are over their peak. People here are of course disgusted by the attacks in the UK but it looks like a realization is starting to sink in that this is not specific to this era. Think IRA, rote armee fraction, ETA, we even had our own little terrorist group here called rara. A movement against giving up rights in order to prevent new attacks seems to be coming forth.
Aside from that, our political situation is in as much turmoil as in the UK. After the last elections at least 4 parties are needed to get a majority. This doesn't seem to pan out and that's really a shame because there are a couple of pressing matters that need direct attention. We have a tax system that has become a complete mess, and partially as a result of that we have a severely disturbed job market. Almost everybody is a freelancer here, from the mail man to the IT guy. On top of that we have a pension problem and our home-owning is too heavily subsidized and leans on low interest rates. That may sound like a lot of challenges, but it is still very nice to live here. Your friend will have to get used to the climate though!
cybernet69

Queens speech to be delayed by a few days. TM to meet her back benchers this evening.

Whats the odds on a leadership challenge before the weeks out ? :lol:
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

You can still get over 2/1 that she doesn't last the end of June

There might be some value in that
cybernet69

LeTiss wrote:
Mon Jun 12, 2017 12:35 pm
You can still get over 2/1 that she doesn't last the end of June

There might be some value in that
I think that has got to be worth a punt. I know they don't normally but if 30 Tory MP's abstain or vote against the Queens speech then it could be rather chaotic. Assuming Labour, LD, SNP also vote against etc.
User avatar
gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

I accept the democratic will of the people but I lament the lurch of politics to the left. The move away from individualism towards collectivism. I remember the thrill of the fall of the Berlin wall, the joy of freedom, watching it all unfold on a tv my brother won in a cricket club raffle in the Australian summer of 89. It always struck me with the iron curtain, the communists needed a system to keep people in their countries. Freedom, at all levels, was denied. No one could travel to the west for fear that they would never come back, or that they would come back only to rebel against the brain washing of the superiority of the communist system.

And now, what do we have. Communists masquerading as social democrats. Corbyn running around talking of nationalising industries (aka theft of private property), taxing the "rich" (aka theft of individual private work product), anti-austerity (aka wasting money on the non-productive and idle).

Young people who don't know history, haven't read Orwell let alone Solzhenitsyn. The sort of people who haven't created anything, who haven't achieved anything who then say, it's all unfair.

The right is failing to sell its message of freedom and liberty.

Looks like another generation will need to be enslaved, to live in debt and deficit, to pay high taxes in a sub-standard economy, to live out Jeremy's little experiment to prove once again that communism is not a successful form of civil society.

Where does it all come from? Well, I understand that after the fall of communism, Marxists retreated in Western democracy from running for elected office (they couldn't win) into the unelected bureaucracies, chipping away at a policy here, advancing a policy there. In Australia, the far left has been quite successful in slowly but surely subverting institutions to their own ends, in particular teachers unions and elements of the education system. The right took its eye of the ball. As Voltaire might have said, it is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere.
Emmson
Posts: 3363
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

The sort of people who haven't created anything
^ Betfair Traders ^

Gordon Brown remember what he did many years ago. http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/front_page/1207748.stm
scribbles
Posts: 34
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 9:04 pm

cybernet69

TM wont last the summer. Another leadership contest. Vote of no confidence in the government.
scribbles
Posts: 34
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 9:04 pm

cybernet69 wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:16 am
TM wont last the summer. Another leadership contest. Vote of no confidence in the government.
Why , because of a comrade Corbyn insurrection?

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/06 ... ndon-fire/
cybernet69

scribbles wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:24 pm
cybernet69 wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:16 am
TM wont last the summer. Another leadership contest. Vote of no confidence in the government.
Why , because of a comrade Corbyn insurrection?

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/06 ... ndon-fire/
Not necessarily.

I think this tower fire and brexit is going to cause chaos for the sitting PM and government.

Summer of discontent.
scribbles
Posts: 34
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 9:04 pm

cybernet69 wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:43 pm
scribbles wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:24 pm
cybernet69 wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:16 am
TM wont last the summer. Another leadership contest. Vote of no confidence in the government.
Why , because of a comrade Corbyn insurrection?

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/06 ... ndon-fire/
Not necessarily.

I think this tower fire and brexit is going to cause chaos for the sitting PM and government.

Summer of discontent.
On the fire, I am skeptical and have not yet decided which way I am leaning, initially I wondered if the announcement of civil servants deployed to the local council to 'assist' was to undergo a cover-up. There is downplayed political posturing on this one up to now, although apparently the cladding used on the block is banned across Europe (Philip Hammond), we shall see...

Then we have Sadiq Khan and his "Public are sick of politicians platitudes" (paraphrased) statement, oh the irony.

On Brexit, I am quietly confident, both Labour and Conservative manifestos pushed border control etc so the BBC & media spin about a rejection of 'hard' Brexit is nonsense, UK's hand is stronger than we are led to believe. It doesn't surprise me that this is not reported in the BBC (but is on Fox news and Breitbart) there are European countries (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic) in a deadlock and refusing to take immigrants, Sweden are also reversing their policy after a terrorist attack recently (again not on the BBC), Geo-politically this is becoming interesting, the EU will crumble gradually if they don't change policy.

Also, while I am far from an expert on Constitutional or European Law, I would suspect Corbyn's policy of Nationalising industries (Power in particular) would be more difficult within the EU, especially as they are backed by European companies?
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

scribbles wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:04 pm
Also, while I am far from an expert on Constitutional or European Law, I would suspect Corbyn's policy of Nationalising industries (Power in particular) would be more difficult within the EU, especially as they are backed by European companies?
It's not a constitutional or EU law issue. It's just standard UK contract law. The contracts for the privatised businesses targeted for renationalisation are fixed term leases. The government would just not renew the contracts and they would return to public ownership. For any that are contracted for a very long period of time, they could in theory be able to aquire a controlling interest throught the normal process of stock aquisition.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

cybernet69 wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:16 am
TM wont last the summer. Another leadership contest. Vote of no confidence in the government.
She'll stay much longer than that. Several reasons:
Senior Tories have openly said that the don't have any suitable replacement candidates of quality and charisma.
Even the rebel backbenchers wouldn't support a vote of no confidence as it would trigger another election, turkey's voting for Christmas.
No serious career politician would want to take over the Brexit responsiblity as it's a big career risk.

I think the precident was set with Edward Heath when he created a very similar situation to May in the 1974 election. They made him stay on for over a year even though his attempt to create a coalition failed, which triggering another election in October, which they lost. He didn't walk until 1975.

May's "I've got us in this mess and I'll get us out of it" comment to her backbenchers at the 1922 committee meeting was Westminster code for "nobody else wants to deal with this mess so they're making me stay and take the flak, so if you value your jobs you better back me". She'd had a meeting with the senior Tories, the ones who actually run the party, only the day before.

They're also already clearing the way for fewer oppertunities for her to be voted down, the most obvious is that they've already cancelled next year's Queen's Speech, effectively creating a two year parliament.

If she makes it through Conference in October she'll be there until at least April 2019.

...or I could be wrong

on a side issue May's deal with the DUP could cost England billions, every extra penny she promises Northern Ireland with have to be matched in extra payments to Wales and Scotland under the rules of the Barnet formula. It's a shame the media don't credit the general public with enough intellegence to understand and explain the details.
Last edited by ShaunWhite on Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

scribbles wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:04 pm
On Brexit, I am quietly confident, both Labour and Conservative manifestos pushed border control etc so the BBC & media spin about a rejection of 'hard' Brexit is nonsense.
As you say, people didn't vote Labour to get a 'soft' brexit, it was mostly anti-austerity.

BBC & media spin? With all the different private media owners' political allegiancies, it's unlikely that they'd conspire to all give it the same 'spin'.

The only people I've heard talking about this being a rejection of 'hard' brexit are the Tories, that's certainly what they've been saying on Any Questions, Marr, Peston and the Daily/Sunday Politics. They're using it as an excuse to soften May's "deal or no deal" Brexit approach to give them some much needed wiggle room in the negotiations.

I think most Brexiteers would be happy to just see the end of free movement and they're going to get that. I don't think many of the 'hard' Brexiteers deperately want to see the end to joint security arrangements, the city services passport, tarriff free trade, the common agricultural policy etc etc.
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

You can still lay a Conservative Minority at 1.09-1.10

I think this is good value, as the DUP deal looks far from done

You can also back another 2017 GE at 3.65 - I think this could be value too, as the agreement looks weak, and Theresa May looks even weaker
Post Reply

Return to “Political betting & arguing”