Trump exit date

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
Post Reply
User avatar
marksmeets302
Posts: 527
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Trump exit date and Trump to leave before end of 1st term could turn out to be an exciting markets. Currently the market believes he has a 50% chance of staying until the end. Note that the rules state that all bets will be void if he is assassinated or steps down as the result of an assassination attempt.
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

marksmeets302 wrote:
Tue May 16, 2017 11:49 am
Note that the rules state that all bets will be void if he is assassinated or steps down as the result of an assassination attempt.
That's classic :lol:
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

I don't think that's so funny. It shows the world we live in, that some people would be prepared to do anything, not neceassarily because they disagree with his politics, but because they think there might be financial gain for popping somebody off
poklius
Posts: 105
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 11:58 am

Had same thoughts on him leaving way before first term ends, "sickness", impeachment or warew.. especially after he dumped Comney (thats some dictatorshiping here). But recently following US politics, I not so sure anymore... no one over there seems to give a fcuk. Its some kind of fantasy world, nothing makes sense. He is probably most incompetent president in worlds history ever, he clearly doesn't like his job and he just fired FBI head who was investigating him, and everyone is just... yeah, carry on... So no idea, exit in 2017, 2018 at 6+ looks juicy tho :D
User avatar
mjmorris335
Posts: 180
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2016 11:29 am

I'm absolutely amazed that something or someone hasn't yet turned up from his past that could get him impeached.

He doesn't strike me as a principled type at all, just leaning whichever way the political or commercial wind blows.

Mike
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

I think he'll stay the full term, ordinary Americans know its just those long standing political DC figures just trying to get him out so they can have Clinton who's just going to do everything they say! I'm sure the Russians would be blamed if Le Pen won, actually I'm certain! So I hope he stays otherwise I will have lost my faith in democracy and the people's right to vote forever.
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

mjmorris335 wrote:
Tue May 16, 2017 3:13 pm
I'm absolutely amazed that something or someone hasn't yet turned up from his past that could get him impeached.
They probably have, they are all probably dead now :lol:
User avatar
Rstrach
Posts: 103
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:33 pm

I reckon he will see it out back to lay style adopted ;)
User avatar
marksmeets302
Posts: 527
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Someone is willing to bet big that trump has an early exit:
trump.png
(although he hasn't matched anything yet, it's probably bullying - much in the spirit of trump :-) )
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
tallsuk
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:50 pm

I think that this is another hugely overpriced market. BF suggests death (excluding assassination), incapacity, illness, impeachment or resignation (or anything comparable). I can't think of any others though.

Although often discussed impeachment is nearly impossible. It might get past Congress but it requires 66% of the Senate to support it. That would require a lot of Republican Senators explaining to their voters that they just voted against their own President. Secondly, it requires evidence of serious wrongdoing ideally in office. Impeaching someone for anything outside office means that bar has to be set very high. If there was evidence of something like this do you not think the Clinton campaign or the media would have uncovered it.

The next opportunity is resignation which is basically going to require him to be shamed into giving up office. Quite how bad do think the situation is going to have to embarrass Trump into quitting. The guy probably can't even spell shame. Lets get real, if he is filmed in full HD in a compromising positions with various farmyard animals he would probably claim that it was the city based urban elite not able to understand rural communities.

The first three on the BF list, death, incapacity and illness are effectively the same and I think that these are the biggest threat. However, as he was born rich he has had access to the very best healthcare system in the world for his entire life. He is still getting on a bit and these things can happen at any time. I am hoping that he is more likely to take a 'holiday' instead of resigning if he does fall ill though.

I think a much fairer price is about 1.5 which should fall to about 1.2 in 2020 which means there is a huge amount of value in this market.

However, the market keeps on jumping every time he says something dumb. It is important to remember that being a complete moron who is quite happy to insult large amounts of the global population in order to keep a support base happy is not actually enough to kick out a democratically elected president.

Does any one know what BF will do if there is a military coup? This may sound far fetched but if N Korea does launch a missile somewhere, the Generals may well get the full backing of senior politicians to step in.
tallsuk
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:50 pm

From politicalbetting.com:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index. ... ller-time/

It’s Mueller time
October 29th, 2017
Exclusive: A federal grand jury has approved the first charges in the investigation led by special counsel Mueller https://t.co/ZVvg1WCjMs pic.twitter.com/fXsVZUILni

— CNN (@CNN) October 28, 2017

JUST IN: Office of the Special Counsel will serve up an indictment Monday in connection with Russia probe, an official confirms to NBC News

— NBC News (@NBCNews) October 28, 2017

Important news for those of us betting on whether Trump will be impeached or serve a full term
CNN reported in the early hours of Saturday morning UK time,

A federal grand jury in Washington on Friday approved the first charges in the investigation led by special counsel Robert Mueller, according to sources briefed on the matter.

The charges are still sealed under orders from a federal judge. Plans were prepared Friday for anyone charged to be taken into custody as soon as Monday, the sources said. It is unclear what the charges are.

A spokesman for the special counsel’s office declined to comment.

The White House also had no comment, a senior administration official said Saturday morning.

I might be reading too much into this but I am surprised this story hasn’t had more coverage, but if we do see people taken into custody Donald Trump’s twitter account will be even more compelling for all the wrong reasons.

Whilst charges being brought shouldn’t mean an automaticity of guilt, I’ve always viewed Trump as nearly as paranoid as Richard Nixon. I suspect Trump will do something spectacular to protect himself, not quite the Saturday Night Massacre but he might start pardoning people before the normal criminal routes have been completed, which might cause Trump even more problems.

My consistent view has been that even if the Democrats controlled The House and voted to impeach, I don’t think they’d have sufficient votes to convict Trump in The House, but this does make things very interesting. Depending on who is charged I might be changing my betting position on Monday. Given the way Trump campaigned, you can almost hear a deafening crescendo of ‘Lock him up’ from his opponents once the person who is charged is named, as people wish to hoist Trump by his own petard.

Since Trump became President if feels like we’re all living in a giant constitutional law seminar, this will only reinforce that perception.
User avatar
marksmeets302
Posts: 527
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Thanks for that, totally missed it in the news. I had a good run on that market, but got out now.
User avatar
marksmeets302
Posts: 527
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Michael Flynn admits to lying, sending the S&P a percent lower.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Michael Flynn's guilty plea has probably generated a bit of interest because the Republican's could easily impeach if it is shown he has strong Russian ties and they helped him win office.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I dreamt last night that Trump died of "natural causes" while in office. Don't know if it was this thread that made me dream that. But I remember the discussion we were having about president Pence.
Post Reply

Return to “Political betting & arguing”