Trump exit date

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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tallsuk
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Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:50 pm

From politicalbetting.com:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index. ... ller-time/

It’s Mueller time
October 29th, 2017
Exclusive: A federal grand jury has approved the first charges in the investigation led by special counsel Mueller https://t.co/ZVvg1WCjMs pic.twitter.com/fXsVZUILni

— CNN (@CNN) October 28, 2017

JUST IN: Office of the Special Counsel will serve up an indictment Monday in connection with Russia probe, an official confirms to NBC News

— NBC News (@NBCNews) October 28, 2017

Important news for those of us betting on whether Trump will be impeached or serve a full term
CNN reported in the early hours of Saturday morning UK time,

A federal grand jury in Washington on Friday approved the first charges in the investigation led by special counsel Robert Mueller, according to sources briefed on the matter.

The charges are still sealed under orders from a federal judge. Plans were prepared Friday for anyone charged to be taken into custody as soon as Monday, the sources said. It is unclear what the charges are.

A spokesman for the special counsel’s office declined to comment.

The White House also had no comment, a senior administration official said Saturday morning.

I might be reading too much into this but I am surprised this story hasn’t had more coverage, but if we do see people taken into custody Donald Trump’s twitter account will be even more compelling for all the wrong reasons.

Whilst charges being brought shouldn’t mean an automaticity of guilt, I’ve always viewed Trump as nearly as paranoid as Richard Nixon. I suspect Trump will do something spectacular to protect himself, not quite the Saturday Night Massacre but he might start pardoning people before the normal criminal routes have been completed, which might cause Trump even more problems.

My consistent view has been that even if the Democrats controlled The House and voted to impeach, I don’t think they’d have sufficient votes to convict Trump in The House, but this does make things very interesting. Depending on who is charged I might be changing my betting position on Monday. Given the way Trump campaigned, you can almost hear a deafening crescendo of ‘Lock him up’ from his opponents once the person who is charged is named, as people wish to hoist Trump by his own petard.

Since Trump became President if feels like we’re all living in a giant constitutional law seminar, this will only reinforce that perception.
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marksmeets302
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Thanks for that, totally missed it in the news. I had a good run on that market, but got out now.
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marksmeets302
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Michael Flynn admits to lying, sending the S&P a percent lower.
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Euler
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Michael Flynn's guilty plea has probably generated a bit of interest because the Republican's could easily impeach if it is shown he has strong Russian ties and they helped him win office.
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Euler
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I dreamt last night that Trump died of "natural causes" while in office. Don't know if it was this thread that made me dream that. But I remember the discussion we were having about president Pence.
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ShaunWhite
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I heard some interesting things about Mark Cuban, Dallas Mavericks owner, during the NBA. Seems he's pretty certain to run for Predisent in 2020, appears to be a very popular guy and fits the 21st century presidential profile. A 'Cuban' in the Whitehouse? now that would be something.

Mark Cuban (born July 31, 1958)[3] is a businessman, investor, author, television personality, and philanthropist. He is the owner of the NBA's Dallas Mavericks,[4] co-owner of 2929 Entertainment and chairman of AXS TV.[5] He is also one of the main "shark" investors on the ABC reality television series, Shark Tank. In 2011, Cuban wrote an e-book, How to Win at the Sport of Business, in which he chronicles his experiences in business and sports.[6]


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Cuba ... l_activity

Could be one for the notebook, currently 100/1
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Kafkaesque
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My understanding is that he is popular in some quarters, but divides opinions quite a bit. Been a while since I heard it said last, so could be wrong though?

Also, as far as I recall when the same speculation ran previously, he said, he'd run a Republican. Thus, he cannot run in 2020 (not sure, if he can technically, but would be very, very unlikely that Trump isn't the Rep candidate).....unless Trump exits before time, which does make it very interesting, if there's serious talk on it. I don't know, if that's what you meant, without actually saying it?
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Kafkaesque
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This character is primarily based on him :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzMUrB-Um1Y
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ShaunWhite
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Kafkaesque wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:17 am
Also, as far as I recall when the same speculation ran previously, he said, he'd run a Republican. Thus, he cannot run in 2020 (not sure, if he can technically, but would be very, very unlikely that Trump isn't the Rep candidate)
That's a point I hadn't fully considered, but I'm not sure if potus chooses who runs or the party do. If civilisation makes it to 2020, we'll find out. I might have a couple of quid saver on Xi Jinping just in case.

Thx for the yt clip too, I hadn't seen that.
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Kafkaesque
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:24 am
Kafkaesque wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:17 am
Also, as far as I recall when the same speculation ran previously, he said, he'd run a Republican. Thus, he cannot run in 2020 (not sure, if he can technically, but would be very, very unlikely that Trump isn't the Rep candidate)
That's a point I hadn't fully considered, but I'm not sure if potus chooses who runs or the party do. If civilisation makes it to 2020, we'll find out. I might have a couple of quid saver on Xi Jinping just in case.

Thx for the yt clip too, I hadn't seen that.
Fairly common, it would seem. Just not so much in the last few decades, where I've been old enough to follow politics. I just, wrongly, assumed the current president was a (near) automatic candidate, because there's been noone running against presidents in my (adult) lifetime.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/when-presi ... hallenges/

It is actually an interesting one, specific to the original subject. If discontent with Trump within the Rep Party becomes so strong, that several runners declare against Trump, I could easily see his egomanical self start doing some absolutely insane stuff to thump his chest and prove, that he's the alfa. Insane enough to, one way or another, cause an early exit? Weeeeeell, maybe.
tallsuk
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I think that there will be a race for the GOP nomination in 2020. This CNN article discusses challengers...

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/01/polit ... index.html

If the republicans get their act together and choose one candidate to challenge Trump he may not get the nomination.

I think it is going to be about the Democrats nominee though. Trump won because there were lots of republicans who could not bring themselves to vote for Clinton. If the Dems go left then they will still lose these voters but if they go right and the reps put up Trump again, I cant see him winning.

Still long on him lasting the distance till 2021 though but I really wish he would stop talking so the price starts dropping.
tallsuk
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Does anyone know why the price for Trump seeing out the term has dropped so much in the last few days?

2 weeks ago he was sitting at 2.1, that dropped to 2 on Christmas Eve and is currently sitting at 1.89.

Is it just that people are realising how difficult it is to get septuagenarian bigots to leave???
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Euler
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Probably idiot tweets like this perhaps?

@realDonaldTrump

In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!
tallsuk
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Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:50 pm

I have gone from thinking he was a joke, to thinking shortly after he won that he should be given a chance, which moved on to the guy is a total lunatic who should not even be in charge of a TV remote and now I am starting to wonder if he is actually some sort of political genius!!!

Still can't see how they will get rid of him before the next election though so 1.89 is still a good price.
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marksmeets302
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Special counsel Mueller: Russians conducted 'information warfare' against US during election to help Donald Trump win
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/16/russian ... probe.html
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