Next Tory Leader & May's Exit Date (2019)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Dallas
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spreadbetting wrote:
Sat May 25, 2019 4:20 pm
sionascaig wrote:
Sat May 25, 2019 1:37 pm
spreadbetting wrote:
Sat May 25, 2019 1:18 pm
When people usually resign they're expected to work out their notice until a replacement is found. I wouldn't treat her announcement of intention to resign in June as being the same as the end of her premiership. Until she's kicked out or replaced she'll still be PM as far as I'd assume.
The point is the market explicitly states its about leadership of the conservative party (which hasn't got anything to do with being PM ), but take your point about working out notice... I was assuming once she resigns as leader, the conservative executive takes over control of the party till new leader appointed but not a lot of information available on the detail of this...
I know what you're saying but there's no way I can see her being PM and not the leader of the conservatives it would be a ridiculous situation. Again I'd treat her statement as an intent to resign and only be replaced when a new leader is appointed. If you look at previous leaders of the Conservative party their leaving date always coincides with the start date of the new leader. I doubt this situation will be any different.

Edit: Just had a look at the wiki page and there was a vacant period when John Major quit in 1995 so the party leadership was vacant for a month. Be interesting to see how that market gets settled if there is a gap between 7 June and a new leader, you can be pretty sure they're be lots of moaning either way :D
A phrase I've just heard is on June 7th "she'll announce she is going to stand down as leader - once a suitable replacement has been found"

Which is saying she's officially announcing on that date she will leave but only once a new PM has been elected to take her place
sionascaig
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Still quite a bit of volatility on the June market this morning (managed to catch one 20 tick swing)... BBC reporting last night she will resign as "conservative leader" on the 7th but stay on as PM till replacement found...

Decided to embrace the confusion )
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firlandsfarm
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sionascaig wrote:
Sun May 26, 2019 11:36 am
BBC reporting last night she will resign as "conservative leader" on the 7th but stay on as PM till replacement found...
That's my understanding and it makes sense … the Party can be without a leader but the Country/Government cannot.
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firlandsfarm
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dragontrades wrote:
Wed May 29, 2019 11:56 am
Boris to appear in court
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... -live-news
The "Stop Boris" dirty tricks campaign has started!
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Naffman
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Wed May 29, 2019 12:42 pm
dragontrades wrote:
Wed May 29, 2019 11:56 am
Boris to appear in court
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... -live-news
The "Stop Boris" dirty tricks campaign has started!
What a surprise innit :roll:
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superfrank
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Gove is shortening and I can see the logic...

The Remainer dominant parliamentary party will be scheming to get Gove (who voted for May's deal all 3 times and is not really a Leaver anymore) and a Remainer into the final 2 to be put to the members. The members (70%+ Leavers) loathe Gove, but will be left between a rock and a hard place. Another establishment stitch-up to thwart Brexit is on the cards imho. The problem for the Tories is that, with Gove or another Remainer as PM, they'll be ripe for being wiped out by The Brexit Party should there be an early GE.

Any thoughts?
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Archangel
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superfrank wrote:
Thu May 30, 2019 7:46 pm
Gove is shortening and I can see the logic...

The Remainer dominant parliamentary party will be scheming to get Gove (who voted for May's deal all 3 times and is not really a Leaver anymore) and a Remainer into the final 2 to be put to the members. The members (70%+ Leavers) loathe Gove, but will be left between a rock and a hard place. Another establishment stitch-up to thwart Brexit is on the cards imho. The problem for the Tories is that, with Gove or another Remainer as PM, they'll be ripe for being wiped out by The Brexit Party should there be an early GE.

Any thoughts?
Yeah. Stop reading the Daily Express
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superfrank
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Archangel wrote:
Thu May 30, 2019 7:55 pm
Yeah. Stop reading the Daily Express
Thanks for that hilarious insight. Anyone else?
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firlandsfarm
Posts: 2720
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

superfrank wrote:
Thu May 30, 2019 7:46 pm
Gove is shortening and I can see the logic...

The Remainer dominant parliamentary party will be scheming to get Gove (who voted for May's deal all 3 times and is not really a Leaver anymore) and a Remainer into the final 2 to be put to the members. The members (70%+ Leavers) loathe Gove, but will be left between a rock and a hard place. Another establishment stitch-up to thwart Brexit is on the cards imho. The problem for the Tories is that, with Gove or another Remainer as PM, they'll be ripe for being wiped out by The Brexit Party should there be an early GE.

Any thoughts?
I could never understand why Boris pulled out last time, I think there was more to it than Gove putting himself forward. Yes I understand Gove would have taken MPs from Boris but all Boris had to do was stay ahead of Gove until he became the one to drop out and then Boris would have regained the Gove supporters that departed his camp. But it's clear that the current rules put the power in the hands of the 300 and not the 100,000 or so members (Source). I appreciate the 300 need a leader they can stand behind but is asking the 100,000+ to choose between an unsatisfactory candidate and an unsatisfactory candidate the way to go? But I'm not sure Gove is no longer a leaver. He is a slippery teflon chameleon who will go with whatever he thinks will further Gove (a bit like a blue Corbyn!) and once in office he will change back to his natural colours. I wouldn't be surprised if he has leaned towards the Remoaner side simply to gain some of their votes … a bit like Corbyn and his position on a 2nd referendum, he is positioning himself to show agreement to maintain that support without actually saying it so that he can pull back later.
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Tuco
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superfrank wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 3:20 pm
If the Tories end up with another Remainer as PM they're toast.
...correct!
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Tuco
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sionascaig wrote:
Sat May 25, 2019 11:16 am
I wonder if its the case that if she resigns as stated on the 7th the effective date of leaving is the appointment of a new leader
...correct!
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Tuco
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sionascaig wrote:
Sat May 25, 2019 10:40 am
Am I missing something?
..yes you are!
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Tuco
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spreadbetting wrote:
Sat May 25, 2019 4:20 pm
I know what you're saying but there's no way I can see her being PM and not the leader of the conservatives it would be a ridiculous situation.
...correct!
spreadbetting wrote:
Sat May 25, 2019 4:20 pm
Again I'd treat her statement as an intent to resign and only be replaced when a new leader is appointed.
...also correct!
spreadbetting wrote:
Sat May 25, 2019 4:20 pm
If you look at previous leaders of the Conservative party their leaving date always coincides with the start date of the new leader. I doubt this situation will be any different.
...correct again!
spreadbetting wrote:
Sat May 25, 2019 4:20 pm
Just had a look at the wiki page and there was a vacant period when John Major quit in 1995 so the party leadership was vacant for a month.
...it had to be vacant as he was standing in the Conservative Leadership race, otherwise there would have been no gap.
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Tuco
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spreadbetting wrote:
Sat May 25, 2019 1:18 pm
When people usually resign they're expected to work out their notice until a replacement is found. I wouldn't treat her announcement of intention to resign in June as being the same as the end of her premiership. Until she's kicked out or replaced she'll still be PM as far as I'd assume.
...correct!
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