Trading Politics : US Presidential Election 2020

Punting on politics
Post Reply
jamesg46
Posts: 1247
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:12 pm

https://youtu.be/iVEKzSWmmXw

For anyone who might find this a difficult listen, I'm posting because anyone trading this market might want to fact check what the lady says.

User avatar
rik
Posts: 930
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:03 am

fact is Trump needs to recover and whos to say he will.
Virus will still be an issue in November, general tune is much more negative than 4 years ago, debates supposed to make the big difference? Hes going to recover because he did 4 years ago?
Im not an expert on which swing states he needs or which polls are likely to be the most accurate so i will likely trade out on election night, but hes behind 6,4 points on average at the moment, to be 2,8 on election night depends of course on swing state polls but i estimate hed have to be 2-3% behind nationwide.
polls were skewed 1% in democrat favour 2016, they might be again, easier to win for republicans without popular vote, postal vote, whatever other worries might be reflected in the odds on election night, but he needs to recover quite a bit, imo more likely hes 20% or lower than odds on election night

Trader Pat
Posts: 755
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:53 am

rik wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:03 am
Im not an expert on which swing states he needs or which polls are likely to be the most accurate so i will likely trade out on election night
Don't do that! HIllary was in the low teens on election night in 2016.

Like I already said I think Trump needs a minor miracle but I think there's going to be some twists and turns (in the market) between now and November. I'd be surprised if Biden goes back above evens at any point before election night unless he sticks both his feet in his mouth or confuses his VP pick with one of the other VP candidates. There's so much noise around politics in general but especially US politics that it makes it a great market to trade.

I tune most of the partisan BS out and try to look at it from a common sense point of view, and from where I'm looking he's failing miserably across the board. Went full Manbaby when Jonathan Swan asked him his opinion on the legacy of John Lewis because Lewis obviously hurt his feelings by not attending his inauguration. Imagine if he was president during the Cuban missile crisis, probably none of us would exist. Before the infamous Axios interview Chris Wallace from Fox took Trump apart a few weeks earlier but it didnt get the coverage or credit it deserved. Trump was visibly pissed of at the idea of a Fox news reporter daring to challenge him in that way.

The Trump presidency has been an experiment and his legacy will probably be setting US foreign policy back 20 years, another 4 years of Trump and who knows what will happen.

User avatar
johnsheppard
Posts: 202
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:00 am
Location: Cairns Australia

Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:02 am

I'm still learning about politics, but I am wondering are you guys straight out betting or trading in and out?

I think the general consensus is that Trump will demolish Biden in debates, so probably a good idea to back trump and trade out after the debates. At least that's the angle I am thinking about. The trouble being, at what point does the market notice these things?

User avatar
gazuty
Posts: 1615
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am

Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:26 am

johnsheppard wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 5:02 am
I'm still learning about politics, but I am wondering are you guys straight out betting or trading in and out?

I think the general consensus is that Trump will demolish Biden in debates, so probably a good idea to back trump and trade out after the debates. At least that's the angle I am thinking about. The trouble being, at what point does the market notice these things?
In my view, political markets are prone to overactions that move the market well away from what is probable, witness Kanye announcing that he would run, dropping from 1000 to 80 and now back out to 1000. Third party candidates have not fared very well, Ross Perot got up to around 8% of the vote at the most. And Kanye joined at a time when he wasn't properly registered to run in some states, has no get out the vote operation etc.

This is just one example of an overaction and there are many overactions as time goes on. You don't have to be right, you just need to think about whether there is likely to have been an overreaction and a reversion to something else.

Trump and Biden are old and also the targets of all sorts of nut jobs and terroists etc, the market definitely factors in the possiblity of death or incapacity, but as election day gets closer that degrades like time in a football match but much more slowly.

User avatar
gazuty
Posts: 1615
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am

Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:38 am

Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:53 am
Like I already said I think Trump needs a minor miracle ...
or not, who knows.
Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:53 am
I tune most of the partisan BS out and try to look at it from a common sense point of view,
How does anyone know what is or is not common sense. I have travelled around the US and it is a very diverse country, so much that everything written about it is true and the opposite is also true.
Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:53 am
The Trump presidency has been an experiment and his legacy will probably be setting US foreign policy back 20 years, another 4 years of Trump and who knows what will happen.
Every presidency is an experiment, the USA is itself an experiment.

Setting back? in what sense? Take a moment to consider the shocks and crises the USA has endured over the past quarter of a millennium: the US Civil War, the Great Depression, two World Wars, a Cold War against an implacable nuclear-armed adversary.

You clearly seem to be in the "orange man" = "bad" camp. Not everything he does is good and not everything he does is bad. In my view (which is just an opinion) - he is clearly the crassest person to be President in my own lifetime. But then JFK and LBJ were crass in private and faced far less media scrutiny than any person including Trump, Biden or otherwise get now. In fact things that I thought would have sounded the death knell for candidates in the past (Trumps comments on women, his multiple marriages and rumours of affairs etc) don't seem to apply any more. But hey, I was convinced Trump couldn't get the republican nomination last time, put my money where my view was and paid the price.

User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 4297
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:07 am

Remember a lot of Trump voters probably don't even like him but there are a lot of other issues at play here; the media, BLM, China, self rightous celebs, twitter, gun laws/freedoms - the ordinary folk want a voice and they only get one every 4 years.

jamesg46
Posts: 1247
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:56 am

Naffman wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:07 am
Remember a lot of Trump voters probably don't even like him but there are a lot of other issues at play here; the media, BLM, China, self rightous celebs, twitter, gun laws/freedoms - the ordinary folk want a voice and they only get one every 4 years.
We also have to remember that the people trading this market are not Americans. The price is naturally wrong for two reasons, the first is that people are believing the polls & secondly the people trading it are not Anthropologists and are pricing it with a European/British bias.

I read an article the other day posted on the forum that gave an "articulated" opinion on why Brits can't stomach Trump, i can't remember who or where it was posted but when I read it, I couldn't help but think that this is the bias in the market and that is where the value is.

User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 4297
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Fri Aug 07, 2020 11:25 am

jamesg46 wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:56 am
Naffman wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 7:07 am
Remember a lot of Trump voters probably don't even like him but there are a lot of other issues at play here; the media, BLM, China, self rightous celebs, twitter, gun laws/freedoms - the ordinary folk want a voice and they only get one every 4 years.
We also have to remember that the people trading this market are not Americans. The price is naturally wrong for two reasons, the first is that people are believing the polls & secondly the people trading it are not Anthropologists and are pricing it with a European/British bias.

I read an article the other day posted on the forum that gave an "articulated" opinion on why Brits can't stomach Trump, i can't remember who or where it was posted but when I read it, I couldn't help but think that this is the bias in the market and that is where the value is.
Very good point

Trader Pat
Posts: 755
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:03 pm

gazuty wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:38 am
or not, who knows.
Youre right Who knows? Thats just my opinion, each of us come to our opinions in a different way. Its like me saying I think Man City will beat Real Madrid tonight but who knows?
gazuty wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:38 am
I have travelled around the US and it is a very diverse country, so much that everything written about it is true and the opposite is also true.
Completely agree with you there, however you have to remember when you travelled to the US you saw the country through the eyes of a white man. I've travelled a bit in the States but always preferred to visit places off the tourist track. 7 years ago I was in a bar just outside Albertsville, Alabama. People were friendly, good fun, welcoming but the N word flew around that bar more than we'd hear the F word at a football match. I always found the people in the places I travelled to in the States to be very friendly and helpful, but more than once I was very aware that probably wouldnt have been the case if I was a person of colour. You have to guard against seeing what you want to see and try to look at things from other peoples point of view.
gazuty wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:38 am
Setting back? in what sense? Take a moment to consider the shocks and crises the USA has endured over the past quarter of a millennium: the US Civil War, the Great Depression, two World Wars, a Cold War against an implacable nuclear-armed adversary.
All those events were out of the control of the president at the time. Trump has done lasting damage to America's standing and influence in the world. He's single handedly weakened decades old alliances prime example of that is the plan to withdraw a third of American troops from Germany which could have significant consequences for America's national security interests. One airbase in Germany is used by the US as a control centre for drone strikes in Yemen and other places in the middle east. Another 4 years of Trump could see him withdraw even more.

And then there's Putin... troop withdrawal from Germany would give Putin a green light to take a little bit more of Ukraine and who knows where else. Trump invoked the name of Reagan a lot when he ran for president, Reagan would be spinning in his grave if he knew the concessions Trump has made to Putin not least of which is turning a blind eye to Russian interference in US elections. Trump has also managed to make America even more hated in the Arab world especially with his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem.
gazuty wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:38 am
You clearly seem to be in the "orange man" = "bad" camp.
Well of course I am i'm Irish but getting back to Trump

gazuty wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 6:38 am
Not everything he does is good and not everything he does is bad. In my view (which is just an opinion) - he is clearly the crassest person to be President in my own lifetime. But then JFK and LBJ were crass in private and faced far less media scrutiny than any person including Trump, Biden or otherwise get now. In fact things that I thought would have sounded the death knell for candidates in the past (Trumps comments on women, his multiple marriages and rumours of affairs etc) don't seem to apply any more. But hey, I was convinced Trump couldn't get the republican nomination last time, put my money where my view was and paid the price.
Again cant disagree with anything there. The difference though is JFK, LBJ even W were capable of diplomacy, Trump has proven he isnt.

Ultimately Trump has his base who'll vote for him no matter what, there are also the people who probably cant stand him but will vote for him because he's a Republican. He'll still have the support of Evangelical's even though some polls suggest his lead among them isn't as big as it was when he ran 4 years ago but that would still not be enough. He'll need swing voters and imo this is where he'll lose out with the swing voters who voted for him last time around because they wanted to try something totally different (that was the experiment).

Post Reply

Return to “Trading Politics”

  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest