Trading Politics : US Presidential Election 2020

Punting on politics
Post Reply
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 4301
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:45 am

God bless you virtue signalling NFL, that's another boost for Trump's campaign

User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 4301
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:47 pm

Paul definitely isn't biased :lol: :lol:
bfpolwriter.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

Vaz0202
Posts: 35
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:53 pm

Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:41 am

Some professor was on LBC with Iain Dale and claims Trump will lose in November.

This professor has called every US election since the 80’s.

To paraphrase ’The Thick Of It’, are LBC finding the ‘right’ experts?

User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 1523
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:48 am

Vaz0202 wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:41 am
Some professor was on LBC with Iain Dale and claims Trump will lose in November.

This professor has called every US election since the 80’s.

To paraphrase ’The Thick Of It’, are LBC finding the ‘right’ experts?
That reminds me...

paul.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

User avatar
gazuty
Posts: 1616
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am

Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:25 pm

Latest episode of The Circus very intresting - https://www.sho.com/the-circus-inside-t ... w-on-earth

Focused on postal ballots and made the point (also made earlier in the thread) about a strong performance by Trump on election night, to possibly be eroded by mail in ballots.

As avid US political students no doubt knnow - each State does it differently with different procedures. Some states like Colorado are a well oiled machine on postal votes, others not so much and some don't allow postal votes.

Also very relevant for trading is the possiblity of legal challenges from either side, a la Florida, if the result is close enough - Trump rhetoric clearly laying the ground work for this.

Trader Pat
Posts: 755
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:11 pm

I'm a little surprised that Biden isn't trading a bit lower in the market. A lot of polls have been released in the last couple of weeks showing him with a healthy lead but his price hasn't budged. The polls are expected to narrow down the stretch so should be a good indicator that Trump's price will come in as we get closer to election day.

As for the mail in voting apocalypse it might not be as big a deal as Trump and his supporters want it to be. While Trump is warning that mail in ballots will result in widespread fraud he's also actively encouraging Florida voters to vote by mail in ballot! Why? In 2016 nearly 30% of all votes cast in Florida were by mail and Trump needs to win Florida to have a realistic chance of another 4 years.

I've got my green weighted in favour of Trump with the expectation of his price coming in so I can lay him again come election day. :mrgreen:

User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 4301
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:04 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3xeb6a1JjE

Really enjoyed this - Andrew Neil + guests covering all bases.

One thing I find amazing is the left think Texas is a toss-up because the polls have Trump just 1 ahead, in 2016 most of the polls were leaning towards Trump in TX so I'm guessing it was about the 1pt lead too, Trump beat Clinton by 9%

Also - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksXir3Z ... dex=7&t=0s

Shows why polls are skewed and how Biden is struggling to get voters to the polls (like Corbyn and Shorten - they are too PC and have no charisma) - is a right leaning channel though before anyone points it out

User avatar
Kafkaesque
Posts: 824
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:40 pm

Naffman wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:04 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3xeb6a1JjE

Really enjoyed this - Andrew Neil + guests covering all bases.

One thing I find amazing is the left think Texas is a toss-up because the polls have Trump just 1 ahead, in 2016 most of the polls were leaning towards Trump in TX so I'm guessing it was about the 1pt lead too, Trump beat Clinton by 9%

Also - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksXir3Z ... dex=7&t=0s

Shows why polls are skewed and how Biden is struggling to get voters to the polls (like Corbyn and Shorten - they are too PC and have no charisma) - is a right leaning channel though before anyone points it out
Small sample, but I did live in a West Texas city for a year once upon a time. As republican a city as you'll ever find, and which proudly proclaimes to be a former city of residence for George Bush. Of the 25ish people I'm still in contact with, they to the last man and woman voted Trump in 2016. About 3/4 are not voting this time round. They regret voting Trump but can't bring themselves to vote for a democrat, and they tell me that's what they see and hear around them. The remaining 1/4 bar one are on the fence. Trump will likely take Texas again, but it'll be by default over aversion to democrats.

Post Reply

Return to “Trading Politics”

  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest