US Presidential Election 2020

[gazuty]

There's a significant WoM on Biden right now

You made me look more closely at the rules. Betfair say they are going to settle it on the electoral college votes (not on inauguration) which I assume means not waiting until 20 January but waiting until 6 January when the official results of the Electoral College are announced.

This would mean it is not a strict "next president" market, ie even if Trump loses the election and spits the dummy and resigns and Pence comes in, Betfair will pay out on Biden because he will be elected by the Electoral College. At least that is how I read the rules, for other readers, please take the time to refresh.

So that means most consider Trump in good health at no risk of other death (hence Pence at 1000) but Harris lower because Biden might not make it to 6 Jan.

[Trader Pat]

I think muting the mic is just childish. At least give Trump the chance to see if he learned from the 1st debate, if he didn't then he would only be harming himself. it will just give the Republicans ammunition to say the media is unfairly shushing Trump, Biden won't be talking over his time (even though like very other politician he should) so its going to look like its unfairly biased towards Biden. Anyway they'll be on the same stage so you'll still hear Trump even if his mic is off In fairness to Trump he's not the only politician to talk over his time, they all do it not to the extent of Trump fair enough but they all want the last word.

As for Trump leaving office before inauguration day if he loses? Not going to happen. If he loses can you imagine the potential damage he can do in those 3 months? The focus will then shift to protecting himself against any potential investigations and probably trying to find a way out of paying his debt when he leaves office. Who knows what kind of crazy executive orders he'll sign!

[Naffman]

Obama doing Biden's bidding in PA today while he rests in his basement, I've noticed the swing states are getting a lot tighter too

[Kafkaesque]

Or maybe that he actually does catch Covid

That reflects he loses election and leaves pre 20 January.

And Trump has already threatened that. Imho it’s worth back pence for 10@1000 to be sworn in pre Biden. It’s just the sort of stunt Trump would pull.

Ah, excellent piece of information. I hadn't looked at the rules on this market

In that case, it's worth a little dabble. A strange aspect of US politics.......if you've been voted out of office, why wait for another 2 months to hand over the baton? At least in the UK, the beaten PM is packing their bags the following morning

It's down to the UK, like most countries, having the majority of people actually running the show behind the scenes being permanent fixtures and - in theory at least - being non-partisan. Whether having these unelected people with vast power is truly democratic is open to debate, but it's beyond doubt that it makes for a smoother operation.

Giving the size of the machine that is the US federal government and the turnover in staff with a new presidency, iirc most people who have commented feels that two months is actually too short a time frame to transition.

In terms of the markets, there was much published at the time and since about how Trump was an absolute imbecile and uninterested in an effective transition. If that was his approach to that important work, when he was about to step into power, it's going to be mayhem when he's asked give up power (be it now or in another four years) and help the next guy get ready to run the country, he claims to love. Every chance he'll step away imho.

[megarain]

The fifth risk - Michael Lewis did a pretty good job describing how Trump handled the transition.

Well worth reading.

[Derek27]

I think muting the mic is just childish. At least give Trump the chance to see if he learned from the 1st debate, if he didn't then he would only be harming himself.

He's way beyond learning anything and he wouldn't be harming himself. Biden wants a chance to speak and the audience want to hear what both men have to say. It may be childish but Trump has the mentality of a child.

[Naffman]

Rasmussen gone Biden 49-46 in the national poll from Biden +12 two weeks ago - pollster had Clinton +1 this far out in 2016

IBD/TIPP also gone Biden 49-46 when having Clinton +1 this far out too

Polls are definitely tightening, Trump has the momentum and Biden has gone missing.

Yet Biden steaming into 1.55

[Emmson]

Cherry picking not allowed, take out the worst poll, take out the best poll and average the rest. Biden remains comfortably ahead and on course for the prize.

[Naffman]

Cherry picking not allowed, take out the worst poll, take out the best poll and average the rest. Biden remains comfortably ahead and on course for the prize.

I could put up Trafalgar who were the best polling firm in 2016/18 who already have Trump winning

[Trader Pat]

Cherry picking not allowed, take out the worst poll, take out the best poll and average the rest. Biden remains comfortably ahead and on course for the prize.

I could put up Trafalgar who were the best polling firm in 2016/18 who already have Trump winning

Worth noting that Rasmussen & Trafalgar are pretty biased towards the right.

[Naffman]

Cherry picking not allowed, take out the worst poll, take out the best poll and average the rest. Biden remains comfortably ahead and on course for the prize.

I could put up Trafalgar who were the best polling firm in 2016/18 who already have Trump winning

Worth noting that Rasmussen & Trafalgar are pretty biased towards the right.

Rasmussen had Clinton +2 on their final poll in 2016 and Trafalgar got MI and PA right in '16 against all others and got 7/9 battleground senate races correct in '18

[Trader Pat]

I could put up Trafalgar who were the best polling firm in 2016/18 who already have Trump winning

Worth noting that Rasmussen & Trafalgar are pretty biased towards the right.

Rasmussen had Clinton +2 on their final poll in 2016 and Trafalgar got MI and PA right in '16 against all others and got 7/9 battleground senate races correct in '18

If you say so but they are still right leaning pollsters and that should be taken into account. Its like when SurveyMonkey conduct a poll you take into account they're left leaning.

[Naffman]

Someone had a 10k+ bet on Clinton at 1000

[LeTiss]

Someone had a 10k+ bet on Clinton at 1000

Yes. I noticed that too

[wearthefoxhat]

Someone had a 10k+ bet on Clinton at 1000

If they're quick, they can have £6,009.00 on Jo Jorgenson @ 1000.00... (or to score first goal for Denmark)