US Presidential Election 2020

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
Post Reply
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

sionascaig wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:37 am
jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:19 am
sionascaig wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 11:02 am


Because lots ignorant of people will follow anything that resembles a large t*t?
Do you mean ignorant people on both sides of the political spectrum or just one side in particular?
Both (was being a bit facetious though)... Although I really struggle to get Trump I can see why people would follow him just for entertainment value.
Yeah, i can see that people would do that too. I feel its a sad life for those people but I can definitely see people doing that.

I'd suggest though that those people don't account for the 77 million difference.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

I don't understand the obsession with the debates, I don't think they'll have as much of a bearing this time around as they would in a normal election cycle.
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 5644
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Trader Pat wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:11 pm
I don't understand the obsession with the debates, I don't think they'll have as much of a bearing this time around as they would in a normal election cycle.
Because no one is doing rallies so it's really the only chance they get to see them...and 84 million people watched the 1st debate between Trump and Clinton, that's a huge percentage of the population
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Naffman wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:19 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:11 pm
I don't understand the obsession with the debates, I don't think they'll have as much of a bearing this time around as they would in a normal election cycle.
Because no one is doing rallies so it's really the only chance they get to see them...and 84 million people watched the 1st debate between Trump and Clinton, that's a huge percentage of the population
Like I said 2016 was a normal election cycle, this isn't. I'd say a lot more people's minds are already made up and while the debates will of course have huge viewing figures I dont think they're going to be as relevant to how people vote.
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 5644
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Trader Pat wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:35 pm
Naffman wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:19 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:11 pm
I don't understand the obsession with the debates, I don't think they'll have as much of a bearing this time around as they would in a normal election cycle.
Because no one is doing rallies so it's really the only chance they get to see them...and 84 million people watched the 1st debate between Trump and Clinton, that's a huge percentage of the population
Like I said 2016 was a normal election cycle, this isn't. I'd say a lot more people's minds are already made up and while the debates will of course have huge viewing figures I dont think they're going to be as relevant to how people vote.
People really haven't seen Biden the past few months, yes because if everything but also because his team know the less you see of him the better. When he goes on stage against Trump without any help everyone will see his true colours...like he did to a supporter a few months ago he'll call trump fat and challenge him to some push ups :lol:
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Naffman wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:46 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:35 pm
Naffman wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 2:19 pm


Because no one is doing rallies so it's really the only chance they get to see them...and 84 million people watched the 1st debate between Trump and Clinton, that's a huge percentage of the population
Like I said 2016 was a normal election cycle, this isn't. I'd say a lot more people's minds are already made up and while the debates will of course have huge viewing figures I dont think they're going to be as relevant to how people vote.
People really haven't seen Biden the past few months, yes because if everything but also because his team know the less you see of him the better. When he goes on stage against Trump without any help everyone will see his true colours...like he did to a supporter a few months ago he'll call trump fat and challenge him to some push ups :lol:
Republicans already know Biden is error prone because his gaffs and the incident you're talking about has been part of campaign ads against him for months now, and Democrats won't care about his gaffs because they'll still see him as a better alternative to Trump. Like I said nobody on either side is going to learn anything new about Biden or Trump by watching the debates, and the pool of voters who will be swayed by the debates is much smaller than in 2016.
User avatar
decomez6
Posts: 685
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

at the current prices , i would lay Biden and back Trump then close both trades when they even up .
the democrats are running on too many emotional time bombs, with a candidate that has been rejected 2 times before.

how on Earth is trump still in contention?
-catastrophic (bleach drinking) corona tag on him.
every single day a new scandle that would have wiped out any other president !

Trump is a marketing genius, he knows how to keep the media guessing and he gives them value while he gets free publicity. Twiiter, fox news, cnn,...all are beneficiary by design or by default.
He might come accross as unhinged and out of touch, but its a ploy to deliver his message. very simple, secure the boarders and let everyone else mind thier own business. Globalisation is hereby declared a thing of the past and the US is not the custodian of decency. China is the world number two and has far less responsibilities .The latter has greatly benefitted from globalisation in expense of all other G8 countries .Time to put more accountability on the Dragon.

TRump is not a conventional republican as a matter of fact they are campaigning against him, the democrats have failed to impeach him when they had a clear open and close case. they are only looking good because he makes them look so.
corona virus is slowly taking the shape of an economic catastrophy, which is very tightly correlated to border and internal security. The police unions have endorsed trump while the dems are bussy Taking the NRA to court.
the evangelicals and pro lifers are very emotional voters and they will turn up to vote , with or without the corona virus unlike the democrats that wont even allow schools to open.
trump only needs two good weeks of good news and biden will sleep well in his banker. a vaccine or a treatment of corna virus and a bouncing back economy will be enough to take him through the finishing with a TIE break . we shall be heading to the courts , where he has done a good job to fill the judiciary with his own nominess , courtesy of MITCH .Florida all over again.
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

decomez6 wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:48 pm
at the current prices , i would lay Biden and back Trump then close both trades when they even up .
the democrats are running on too many emotional time bombs, with a candidate that has been rejected 2 times before.

how on Earth is trump still in contention?
-catastrophic (bleach drinking) corona tag on him.
every single day a new scandle that would have wiped out any other president !

Trump is a marketing genius, he knows how to keep the media guessing and he gives them value while he gets free publicity. Twiiter, fox news, cnn,...all are beneficiary by design or by default.
He might come accross as unhinged and out of touch, but its a ploy to deliver his message. very simple, secure the boarders and let everyone else mind thier own business. Globalisation is hereby declared a thing of the past and the US is not the custodian of decency. China is the world number two and has far less responsibilities .The latter has greatly benefitted from globalisation in expense of all other G8 countries .Time to put more accountability on the Dragon.

TRump is not a conventional republican as a matter of fact they are campaigning against him, the democrats have failed to impeach him when they had a clear open and close case. they are only looking good because he makes them look so.
corona virus is slowly taking the shape of an economic catastrophy, which is very tightly correlated to border and internal security. The police unions have endorsed trump while the dems are bussy Taking the NRA to court.
the evangelicals and pro lifers are very emotional voters and they will turn up to vote , with or without the corona virus unlike the democrats that wont even allow schools to open.
trump only needs two good weeks of good news and biden will sleep well in his banker. a vaccine or a treatment of corna virus and a bouncing back economy will be enough to take him through the finishing with a TIE break . we shall be heading to the courts , where he has done a good job to fill the judiciary with his own nominess , courtesy of MITCH .Florida all over again.
Isn't the first part of your reply essentially just the same bet?

The rest of what you've said is way above me, I'm lost, not at any specific part, all of it.

It was easier to understand after reading it a few times. I think my mind gets lost in thought with each line so I got lost a few times within the paragraph.
User avatar
decomez6
Posts: 685
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

jamesg46 wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 6:30 pm
decomez6 wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:48 pm
at the current prices , i would lay Biden and back Trump then close both trades when they even up .
the democrats are running on too many emotional time bombs, with a candidate that has been rejected 2 times before.

how on Earth is trump still in contention?
-catastrophic (bleach drinking) corona tag on him.
every single day a new scandle that would have wiped out any other president !

Trump is a marketing genius, he knows how to keep the media guessing and he gives them value while he gets free publicity. Twiiter, fox news, cnn,...all are beneficiary by design or by default.
He might come accross as unhinged and out of touch, but its a ploy to deliver his message. very simple, secure the boarders and let everyone else mind thier own business. Globalisation is hereby declared a thing of the past and the US is not the custodian of decency. China is the world number two and has far less responsibilities .The latter has greatly benefitted from globalisation in expense of all other G8 countries .Time to put more accountability on the Dragon.

TRump is not a conventional republican as a matter of fact they are campaigning against him, the democrats have failed to impeach him when they had a clear open and close case. they are only looking good because he makes them look so.
corona virus is slowly taking the shape of an economic catastrophy, which is very tightly correlated to border and internal security. The police unions have endorsed trump while the dems are bussy Taking the NRA to court.
the evangelicals and pro lifers are very emotional voters and they will turn up to vote , with or without the corona virus unlike the democrats that wont even allow schools to open.
trump only needs two good weeks of good news and biden will sleep well in his banker. a vaccine or a treatment of corna virus and a bouncing back economy will be enough to take him through the finishing with a TIE break . we shall be heading to the courts , where he has done a good job to fill the judiciary with his own nominess , courtesy of MITCH .Florida all over again.
Isn't the first part of your reply essentially just the same bet?

The rest of what you've said is way above me, I'm lost, not at any specific part, all of it.

It was easier to understand after reading it a few times. I think my mind gets lost in thought with each line so I got lost a few times within the paragraph.
If you

LAY joe Biden At the current Of 1.7...
And BACK Trump at The current about 2.6
At a certain point joe will start loosing momentum and his price will drift out And trump’s price will shorten .
There will be a point where both prices share a meeting/ crossing point eg 2.0. , I would then cash out here and re evaluate.
Remember anything can happen, Hilary Clinton is Not fully ruled out. It is possible for joe to vacate The race due to unforeseen circumstances .

bare with me , I tend to write in bullet points . A bad habit from writing short notes and skipping my grammar lessons. I feel my thought process is always ahead of my writing skills. Appreciate the Observation.
Thanks.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

the market expect a trump comeback for whatever reason, polls/forecasts as they are now on election day hes nowhere near 2,7, for me its a lay now and probably trade out on election day
User avatar
firlandsfarm
Posts: 2720
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

decomez6 wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:48 pm
how on Earth is trump still in contention?
-catastrophic (bleach drinking) corona tag on him.
every single day a new scandle that would have wiped out any other president !
It may be that the Americans are sufficiently intelligent to know not to take his comments, like that one, literally. He was simply saying that maybe a solution would be to flush the virus out of the system [like a bleach]. But outsiders jump on it and say "what an idiot" when maybe that role should be reversed! I read an overview of his comment by a qualified practitioner in the UK who said that is just how some medical practitioners will chat among themselves. The problem may be that he used 'in-house' terms (probably because that's how he cribbed it) in an 'out of house' environment.
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:43 am
decomez6 wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 5:48 pm
how on Earth is trump still in contention?
-catastrophic (bleach drinking) corona tag on him.
every single day a new scandle that would have wiped out any other president !
It may be that the Americans are sufficiently intelligent to know not to take his comments, like that one, literally. He was simply saying that maybe a solution would be to flush the virus out of the system [like a bleach]. But outsiders jump on it and say "what an idiot" when maybe that role should be reversed! I read an overview of his comment by a qualified practitioner in the UK who said that is just how some medical practitioners will chat among themselves. The problem may be that he used 'in-house' terms (probably because that's how he cribbed it) in an 'out of house' environment.
LOL House MD regularly did far worse.
User avatar
gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

The Dems VP Market has been a wild ride - which is great, some really massive swings.

Kamala Harris and Susan Rice are the favs, but maybe Biden pulls an out an unknown.

All I know is I'm all green now and can sit back and contemplate Thurs AM in Aust with a good result.
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 5644
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

If Harris wasn't a black woman there is no chance she'd have been picked, seems to be completely against Biden and the views of the left - strange decision.
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Naffman wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:16 am
If Harris wasn't a black woman there is no chance she'd have been picked, seems to be completely against Biden and the views of the left - strange decision.
You're right, she's a box ticking exercise. Lefties love that sort of shit
Post Reply

Return to “Political betting & arguing”