US Presidential Election 2020

[Euler]

The problem with Paul Krishnamurty is that he is so left-wing it distorts his ability to be impartial. It influences his opinion too much. I am no different of course, but I'm not claiming to be the Betfair Exchange political expert

Read his tweets in the week before the GE 2019. It's absolutely laughable. He's banging on about Momentum and refusing to beleive Boris has secured an overall majority. He struggled to even accept the exit polls

He's a bloke with a passion for politics and a passion for betting on them. However, an expert he isn't

I completely agree with this, he is not impartial and got the GE 2019 hopelessly wrong and you can see his bias leaking into his work.

We all know that effective trading is all about being independent of your emotion and its obvious that Paul can't do that. Must have lost a fortune if he followed his own tips!

[Euler]

I think it was curious in the last GE in the UK how biased the coverage was. I had assumed some bias, but when numbers came out and you were able to reflect on things, the coverage you saw on social media and in the debates were surprisingly skewed.

It's obviously a consistently changing mix, but you feel the Biden won't be seen as a strong character and that could play into Trump's hands. A great market! (If you can remain impartial)

[Vaz0202]

I might be wrong here but I will say it anyway:

I don’t think you can be passionate about politics and successfully trade politics.
Surely any sort of political persuasion you have will jeopardise your ability to read the market.

A bit like trading your fav football team.

Am I alone in this? I’m expecting a whole host of screenshots to prove I’m wrong but will take it in good humour for being a numpty

I don't agree. You can't compare it football. Anything can happen in 90 minutes whereas the fundamentals in politics are much more important. A genuine interest and knowledge is a great help imho.

On Brexit night those of that realised the importance of the early results (and that Remainer London was never going to be enough to swing it back) cleaned up.

The important thing to remember is that the broadcast media are very left wing and their coverage often amounts to wishful thinking. They had us believe Boris vs Corbyn was neck and neck. It was all crap. Corbyn couldn't even beat May at the height of his popularity so was never gonna beat Boris. I wish I'd have stuck to my guns more on that.

I remember the run up to the last election really well, it was like living in a parallel universe at times.
The polls were weighing heavy on Boris, the live debates didn’t really produce a knockout blow for either side yet social media was awash with Labour support.

Around 5pm on election night I had a feeling Corbyn might have just done enough which was the opposite I had felt all the way through up to that point.

Interestingly, the political commentators were not surprised at all by the result and when they were interviewing Joe Public and other politicians (even from the Labour Party) they knew the result was only going to end one way.

It makes me wonder if social media is really as effective as people claim. Is it just a case of vocal minority?

[jamesedwards]

I remember the run up to the last election really well, it was like living in a parallel universe at times.
The polls were weighing heavy on Boris, the live debates didn’t really produce a knockout blow for either side yet social media was awash with Labour support.

It makes me wonder if social media is really as effective as people claim. Is it just a case of vocal minority?

Momentum did an incredibly good job on social media for the election. You could see an orchestrated activist movement played out daily with planned attacks, group infiltration etc everywhere and anywhere where there was traffic. They even had groups on Facebook where they built huge banks of quotes, memes and videos to make it super-easy for their activists to dip in every hour to flood their local groups.

Add to that the demographics of the average social media user fit much closer to those typical of a Labour voter than a Tory one.

[Euler]

It makes me wonder if social media is really as effective as people claim. Is it just a case of vocal minority?

Any sensible person pretty much ignores debating on social media, because you get attacked by that vocal minority. It sort of encourages bullying and feeding of false information.

Not helped by the fact that people or the platform are accountable for anything. Large does of salt required! But it was interesting how false the picture was during the election.

[Euler]

I'm forming the opinion that this election could be disputed and dragged out in the courts. Especially when the president is encouraging electoral fraud: -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54011022

[Derek27]

I thought the disinfectant saga was pushing it but he never stops breaking new ground!

[LeTiss]

I'm forming the opinion that this election could be disputed and dragged out in the courts. Especially when the president is encouraging electoral fraud: -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-54011022

That is ridiculously reckless of Trump. It's no wonder his opponents see him as a loose cannon

[Trader Pat]

When this election is over I'm going to do everything I can to avoid American news and politics

[Derek27]

When this election is over I'm going to do everything I can to avoid American news and politics

You'll have to avoid the news altogether - there's no getting away from American politics.

[Trader Pat]

When this election is over I'm going to do everything I can to avoid American news and politics

You'll have to avoid the news altogether - there's no getting away from American politics.

Yep its not going to be easy! Think I'll go back to getting my news by looking out the window! I know that means I'll get a very localised view of the world but it doesnt seem to have done the Americans any harm

[Lutruwita]

When this election is over I'm going to do everything I can to avoid American news and politics

You'll have to avoid the news altogether - there's no getting away from American politics.

Yep its not going to be easy! Think I'll go back to getting my news by looking out the window! I know that means I'll get a very localised view of the world but it doesnt seem to have done the Americans any harm

Have you read Alain De Botton's book on the news? I laregly concur. The news is mostly guff and the less you consume the better.

[Derek27]

There used to be a paper in the UK that only printed good news, but it hasn't had anything to print for the last 15 years.

[Naffman]

Looking at the Aus. election the winning party was 6% behind in the TPP 2 months before, the week before still 2-4% behind and the exit polls had them 4% behind, they won by 1.5% in the end and cleaned up.

People probably feel like they'll be victimised if they say they support Trump as it's shown in the news almost daily, Trump is going to continue to get stronger through the debates so people who completely trust the polls are barking up the wrong tree imo.

[Vaz0202]

People probably feel like they'll be victimised if they say they support Trump as it's shown in the news almost daily, Trump is going to continue to get stronger through the debates so people who completely trust the polls are barking up the wrong tree imo.

It is like the Bradley effect (discounting the race)