US Presidential Election 2020

Punting on politics
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jameegray1
Posts: 354
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Emmson wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:04 pm
Would you by any chance have a large red on Joe Biden jameegray1?
Absolutely I do. Every now and again I look in on the market and get worried - then watch some more Democrat TV interviews and end up topping up even more on Trump! I know I've said it before but I just can't see Biden beating him. I kind of hope I end up with a big fat red egg on my face come November. Scratch that, I hope I've traded out into a big fat green in the run-in and Biden scrapes over the line.
Emmson
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A steady drip was seen
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Derek27
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jameegray1 wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:41 pm
This has to be the weakest Democrat party ever? Certainly I can't remember anything like this in my lifetime. And they are 1.46 odds on favourites! :shock:
Were you hoping they'd be odds-against favourites? ;)
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Dallas
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Postal vote in Florida is well up on previous years so far and significantly more than 50% are for Biden
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Hillary Clinton was a toxic candidate, just as unpopular with a lot of Democrats as she was with Republicans and she still managed to get 3 million more votes than Trump. Joe Biden is much more popular with the public than Hillary could ever dream of being. Comparing Hillary and Biden is like comparing apples and oranges.

And before anyone asks no, I don't have a big red on Trump. I have an all green book, healthy green on Biden and comedy green on Trump.

If Trump loses the election I'm looking forward to Republicans suddenly growing a spine, watch how many of them will then come out against him, Fox News could even turn on him. It could get very ugly.
jamesg46
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Trader Pat wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:31 pm
Hillary Clinton was a toxic candidate, just as unpopular with a lot of Democrats as she was with Republicans and she still managed to get 3 million more votes than Trump. Joe Biden is much more popular with the public than Hillary could ever dream of being. Comparing Hillary and Biden is like comparing apples and oranges.

And before anyone asks no, I don't have a big red on Trump. I have an all green book, healthy green on Biden and comedy green on Trump.

If Trump loses the election I'm looking forward to Republicans suddenly growing a spine, watch how many of them will then come out against him, Fox News could even turn on him. It could get very ugly.
I'm not convinced he is TraderPat, I know followers aren't everything but social media imo is an indicator and he hasn't much support on Twitter, where every screaming "lefty" seems live. Nobody turning up to his events either.

He could well be more popular than Hillary was but I dont see it. The whole thing confuses me.
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Trader Pat
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jamesg46 wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:14 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:31 pm
Hillary Clinton was a toxic candidate, just as unpopular with a lot of Democrats as she was with Republicans and she still managed to get 3 million more votes than Trump. Joe Biden is much more popular with the public than Hillary could ever dream of being. Comparing Hillary and Biden is like comparing apples and oranges.

And before anyone asks no, I don't have a big red on Trump. I have an all green book, healthy green on Biden and comedy green on Trump.

If Trump loses the election I'm looking forward to Republicans suddenly growing a spine, watch how many of them will then come out against him, Fox News could even turn on him. It could get very ugly.
I'm not convinced he is TraderPat, I know followers aren't everything but social media imo is an indicator and he hasn't much support on Twitter, where every screaming "lefty" seems live. Nobody turning up to his events either.

He could well be more popular than Hillary was but I dont see it. The whole thing confuses me.

I take your point about social media and even the turnout at his events but I mean he's more likeable as a person than Clinton. In 2016 a lot of democrats chose to stay at home rather than vote for Hillary. In 2012 Obama got 300,000 more votes in Michigan than Clinton did in 2016, she lost the state by 10,000 votes. I think Trump's popularity is exaggerated, he got the same number of votes in Wisconsin as Mitt Romney did in 2012 and Clinton got over 200,000 less in Wisconsin than Obama.

I can't see there being too many democratic voters who will stay at home this time around and you'd have to expect him to get a good portion of Obama's voters which should be enough to push him over the top.

I think it was Naffman who posted the results of a poll where people were just asked 'Are you better off now than 4 years ago?' so that could have some effect on the outcome but Biden is not going to do as badly as Hillary did in these states so Trump would probably have to get more votes than 4 years ago just to make this competitive.
jamesg46
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Trader Pat wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:53 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:14 pm
Trader Pat wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:31 pm
Hillary Clinton was a toxic candidate, just as unpopular with a lot of Democrats as she was with Republicans and she still managed to get 3 million more votes than Trump. Joe Biden is much more popular with the public than Hillary could ever dream of being. Comparing Hillary and Biden is like comparing apples and oranges.

And before anyone asks no, I don't have a big red on Trump. I have an all green book, healthy green on Biden and comedy green on Trump.

If Trump loses the election I'm looking forward to Republicans suddenly growing a spine, watch how many of them will then come out against him, Fox News could even turn on him. It could get very ugly.
I'm not convinced he is TraderPat, I know followers aren't everything but social media imo is an indicator and he hasn't much support on Twitter, where every screaming "lefty" seems live. Nobody turning up to his events either.

He could well be more popular than Hillary was but I dont see it. The whole thing confuses me.

I take your point about social media and even the turnout at his events but I mean he's more likeable as a person than Clinton. In 2016 a lot of democrats chose to stay at home rather than vote for Hillary. In 2012 Obama got 300,000 more votes in Michigan than Clinton did in 2016, she lost the state by 10,000 votes. I think Trump's popularity is exaggerated, he got the same number of votes in Wisconsin as Mitt Romney did in 2012 and Clinton got over 200,000 less in Wisconsin than Obama.

I can't see there being too many democratic voters who will stay at home this time around and you'd have to expect him to get a good portion of Obama's voters which should be enough to push him over the top.

I think it was Naffman who posted the results of a poll where people were just asked 'Are you better off now than 4 years ago?' so that could have some effect on the outcome but Biden is not going to do as badly as Hillary did in these states so Trump would probably have to get more votes than 4 years ago just to make this competitive.
Interesting & now I see what you mean. I dont doubt for a second that every Democrat will be out to vote, i think I mentioned earlier in the thread that it could well be the people who didn't bother to vote in 2016 & the newly eligible voters that could make the difference this time around.
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:11 am
Interesting & now I see what you mean. I dont doubt for a second that every Democrat will be out to vote, i think I mentioned earlier in the thread that it could well be the people who didn't bother to vote in 2016 & the newly eligible voters that could make the difference this time around.
Whatever happens it should be a great night of tv :)
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Naffman
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Dallas wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:28 pm
Postal vote in Florida is well up on previous years so far and significantly more than 50% are for Biden
Don't quote me on this but I think something like 60% of dems plan to vote by mail compared to just 25-30% of republicans.

In Florida republicans had 58,000 more votes through the mail than dems in 2016 but the dems have requested 1.6 million compared to republicans' 1.2 million this year
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