Scottish Independence Vote

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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LeTiss
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I just had a look at the market and was surprised to see £826k matched with 8 weeks still to go - this will obviously increase rapidly in the coming weeks.
No.jpg
Yes.jpg
Any thoughts as to whether there's value in laying 1.18?
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marko236
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I'm from Scotland and from what i can tell most people are happy with the way things are.

On laying 1.18 it's worth a try the snp party may come up with something big in the coming weeks.
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LeTiss
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Cheers, that's good info

I think it will be interesting to see if Alex Salmond implodes in the coming weeks, especially if it becomes clear the 'Yes' vote is disappearing
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superfrank
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Salmond is playing a canny game - he probably always knew the chances of a Yes vote were slim, but has gone down this road because he knows he can squeeze all sorts of concessions and new powers out of Westminster in the process.

as marko says there's the possibility of a surprise in the coming weeks and there may be a couple of opinion polls that show things really close... i'd be tempted to back any drift on No.

thanks for the tip anyway, 'will keep an eye on it (i backed Duncan Smith for Tory leader at 9/1 some years ago :D

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Euler
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I've been keeping an eye on it for a while, mainly to see what the market is saying. It would be daft for the Scots to go independant. They pretty much are independant at the moment but with all the benefits and few of the downsides.

Overall, I dislike the nationalistic agenda, wherever it comes from as history shows it never really leads to anything good in the long term.
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superfrank
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+1

for non-left wing English people without Scottish sympathies then backing No is a no lose gamble - if they vote Yes then you've done your money, BUT you'll be better off in the long-term without subsidising Scotland and never having to suffer a Labour govt in England again!...
Iron
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I'm not sure if England would be better off economically without Scotland when you take North Sea oil into account.

I'm in two minds about how to vote. On the one hand, I'd love for there never to be a Labour government in England again (although frankly Cameron's wet Tories aren't all that different from Labour). On the other hand, the transition would be far from seamless. I mean, how do you break up the UK army, for example, or the currency? And how do you decide how much of the UK national debt Scotland gets? Whatever figure George Osbourne comes up with, Alex Salmond will tell him to get lost, and how do you force a country to accept sovereign debt when it refuses to do so?

So all in all, I'm undecided about how I'll vote (if at all).

Jeff
superfrank wrote:BUT you'll be better off in the long-term without subsidising Scotland and never having to suffer a Labour govt in England again!...
hgodden
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Are you Scottish Jeff?
Iron
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Nope, but I live in Scotland, and will be eligible to vote if I'm still here in September (which I probably will be).

Jef
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LeTiss
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I notice there's been a bit layed today at 1.19

I reckon there's a good chance of 2-3 tick movement here. The Scottish Nationalists are very passionate orators, and the polls might show a slight bounce of support, particularly appealing to the siege mentality of the Scots
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Euler
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Half of me is hoping they vote for independence. The UK Government bail out of RBS and HBOS amounted to £65bn. That's a lot of money, but the US Federal Reserve made emergency loans available to RBS of £285bn and to HBOS of £115bn. That would reduce our national debt quite a bit if we could get rid of that ;)
Iron
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I honestly think that most Scots aren't that fussed about independence. It's certainly not something I hear people talking about much up here, and you only see the occasional election poster.

One the the things that struck me when I moved up here was that I didn't feel like I was in a different country (though technically I am), and I didn't ever sense that people saw me as an outsider. The cultural similarities are such that it feels like being in an part of a the UK with a regional accent. And as with the rest of the UK, there are immigrants everywhere you look, which may undermine the sense of shared culture and history that can underpin nationalism.

Jeff
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superfrank
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the No price has hardened since the first debate which Salmond lost by all accounts with his comical position on the currency (ie. they're bluffing and will cave in and let us use the pound if we win).

Salmond is a snake oil salesman if ever there was one and the Yes campaign would surely be doing much better without him leading it.
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LeTiss
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True, but I noticed significant movement for 'Yes' after the Commenwealth Games, Frank

It went from 1.16 to 1.28 during that 10 days, then Salmond blows it all in one night

Similar to Kinnock in 1992 when addressing students in Sheffield (for those of us old enough to remember!)
marko236
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Salmond will smell of Roses what ever happens, if the Brittish goverment refuse to let Scotland use the pound then he'l refuse to take on the debt, Britain is hell bent on keeping Scotland and he will get as much as he can out of them win or lose.
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