Trading Politics : 2015 UK General Election

Punting on politics
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LeTiss
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Tue Nov 18, 2014 8:14 am

I know I am early, but the liquidity on recent by-elections + the outstanding Scottish Independence vote shows Political markets are great trading fodder.

I am drawn to the 'most seats' market

This of course does not mean an overall majority, but simply most seats won

2010

Conservatives 307
Labour 258
Lib Dems 57
Greens 1
Others 27

It's interesting to note Labour are trading at below Evens to win most seats. I think that's a good lay, as Miliband is an absolute knob. Already the vultures within his own party are circling, and last night he got torn to pieces by a bird from Hear'Say

It goes without saying that UKIP are changing the picture, but the nearer it gets and people start to realise Ed Miliband could be Prime Minister......the more attractive that lay of 1.95 looks

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Euler
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Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:27 am

I've been keeping an eye on it, but that's all at the moment. Usually can provide some good opportunities.

Iron
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Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:35 pm

LeTiss 4pm wrote: Miliband is an absolute knob.
I love this picture! :lol:
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Euler
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Sat Nov 22, 2014 9:08 am

I enjoy reading this blog on the politics side of things: -

http://www.politicalbetting.com/

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Euler
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Wed Nov 26, 2014 8:03 pm

Lord Ashcroft tweet this evening: -

Released tomorrow polling in Doncaster North showing UKIP 2nd so if Tories tactically vote for UKIP Miliband loses

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LeTiss
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Wed Nov 26, 2014 8:14 pm

That would be truly hilarious :lol:

Any historians here?

When was the last time a party leader (with genuine ambitions of becoming PM) actually lost their own seat at a General Election?

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BJGardner
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Wed Nov 26, 2014 8:22 pm

LeTiss 4pm wrote:When was the last time a party leader (with genuine ambitions of becoming PM) actually lost their own seat at a General Election?
John Howard, Australia 2007, went into election as Pm and lost his seat to a journalist. :lol:

Groovyelms
Posts: 273
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 7:42 am

Fri Nov 28, 2014 11:35 am

LeTiss 4pm wrote:I know I am early, but the liquidity on recent by-elections + the outstanding Scottish Independence vote shows Political markets are great trading fodder.

I am drawn to the 'most seats' market

This of course does not mean an overall majority, but simply most seats won

2010

Conservatives 307
Labour 258
Lib Dems 57
Greens 1
Others 27

It's interesting to note Labour are trading at below Evens to win most seats. I think that's a good lay, as Miliband is an absolute knob. Already the vultures within his own party are circling, and last night he got torn to pieces by a bird from Hear'Say

It goes without saying that UKIP are changing the picture, but the nearer it gets and people start to realise Ed Miliband could be Prime Minister......the more attractive that lay of 1.95 looks
Interesting that today's market has labour at a lay of 1.9 I might join you on this position as I too think Milliband will not be PM or in fact the leader of labour at the election in May, I really hope that Ed Balls gets the job as i like him even less than Milliband.
I love the mansion tax idea lets alienate the guys that make the money... put up income tax etc etc bound to be a sure fire vote winner, what fun now the campaign really starts to hot up in the new year..
groovy ;)

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Euler
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Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:16 am

Interesting question time last night

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30441293

My big fear is that the electorate is missing the point. The (world) economy is still in a perilous place propped up by cheap money and yet the biggest debating point seems to be immigration?

Parties should be campaigning on how aggressively they are going to sort out the economic problems and start raising interest rates back to normal levels, but that appears to be a sideshow.

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LeTiss
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Fri Dec 12, 2014 8:28 am

That's almost expected though Peter, especially in difficult economic times. Immigration creates a nationalistic atmosphere which overshadows subjects that are just as important, but alas don't inspire the same levels of passionate debate

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