Top 100 In-Running Rated Horses

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BetScalper
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Hi,

For all those people interested in Dobbing/Trobbing, below is a link to the Top 100 In-Running Rated Horses.

https://www.winningwarlock.com/Highest- ... orses.html

If you come across a race card and 1 or more of these is running then you may want to take a closer look at them.

For information purposes only.
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ShaunWhite
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One of them yes, but definitely not if there's more. Competition for pace isn't what you want if you're dobbing. Seems a chore cross checking that list, patternform or traderbot do that for you.
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BetScalper
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 11:10 pm
One of them yes, but definitely not if there's more. Competition for pace isn't what you want if you're dobbing. Seems a chore cross checking that list, patternform or traderbot do that for you.
And what's wrong with dobbing more than 1 in the same race ? I had 2 today in a 7f handicap.
eightbo
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Thanks for linking this, it mentions the past 12 weeks but there's no date on the post... Not the clearest of sites. Is this fresh content? :?
BetScalper wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 11:43 pm
And what's wrong with dobbing more than 1 in the same race ? I had 2 today in a 7f handicap.
Well given the book will always be ~100%, having multiple front-runners reduces your chance of trading out of your 'DOB'.

Exaggerate the scenario and it becomes obvious, let's take 6 runners from that list and throw them in a Hcap race, would you still honestly want to attempt a DOB two runners?

Side note: Seeing this word everywhere now, dob, dob, dob, dob -- are people really just 'DOB'ing @ 2.0x?
Surely other multipliers like 1.2x, 1.5x, 3x etc. could prove more efficient given certain criteria? Or is it just that nobody bothers to talk about them?
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Dallas
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eightbo wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 12:16 am


Side note: Seeing this word everywhere now, dob, dob, dob, dob -- are people really just 'DOB'ing @ 2.0x?
Surely other multipliers like 1.2x, 1.5x, 3x etc. could prove more efficient given certain criteria? Or is it just that nobody bothers to talk about them?
Its just the terminology, A 'DOB' is Double or Bust and to 'double' your stake the odds have to half, anything else is called a B2L (back 2 lay) which plenty of people do
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BetScalper
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Jesus Christ....

Its a list of the top 100 rated horses over the past twelve weeks.

In 5f, 6f, 7f handicap races, in theory, if the handicapper is any good, then they should all finish the race together.

Obviously they don't but 2 or 3 will very often be neck and neck in the final furlong.

In these type of races I get matched no problem in-running.

Horses don't know about book% and nor do most of the mug punters sitting at home watching delayed pictures. On course traders do but they make up a relatively small percentage betting wise.

I am not expecting to get £1,000 matched on 2 dobs.

This forum is full of protectionists, no wonder new comers get pissed off.

Is this site about the so called experts just taking the piss out of everyone else ?
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Derek27
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BetScalper wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 12:40 am
Jesus Christ....
Blasphemy! ;)
eightbo
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Dallas wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 12:35 am
Its just the terminology, A 'DOB' is Double or Bust and to 'double' your stake the odds have to half, anything else is called a B2L (back 2 lay) which plenty of people do
Yeah I'm aware of what DOB means. I did however completely miss the fact that anything else would of course be a B2L though ... not sure how I didn't realise that one! Oops
Still can't recall any instance of someone discussing any strategy behind their exit positions for B2L / L2B though -- perhaps it makes the most sense to do it with discretion given that large amounts of cash can appear at any price IR?
eightbo
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BetScalper wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 12:40 am
Jesus Christ....

Horses don't know about book% and nor do most of the mug punters sitting at home watching delayed pictures. On course traders do but they make up a relatively small percentage betting wise.

I am not expecting to get £1,000 matched on 2 dobs.

This forum is full of protectionists, no wonder new comers get pissed off.

Is this site about the so called experts just taking the piss out of everyone else ?
I mean thank you for taking the time to reply but there's no need to get so riled up now is there? :lol:

Personally I'm here to either help others learn, or learn something myself.

Now I don't play IR but I presumed that between BFs cross-matching, and peoples automation, the book will generally be kept to 100% on average, are you saying that two people backing at the same time in the final furlong at, say, 1.40 is what gets you matched (before book is reactively balanced)? Because in theory if 6 runners were even 100 yards out their prices should, key word should, all be above 2.0 (making attempting DOBing on multiple runners significantly not worth)

I understand there can be discrepancies between theory and what actually happens, so all I'd like to know is why you think it's worth it when in theory it wouldn't be?

I've just thought of a nice lil phrase: Can't explain? Can't sustain.
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BetScalper
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eightbo wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 6:20 am
BetScalper wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 12:40 am
Jesus Christ....

Horses don't know about book% and nor do most of the mug punters sitting at home watching delayed pictures. On course traders do but they make up a relatively small percentage betting wise.

I am not expecting to get £1,000 matched on 2 dobs.

This forum is full of protectionists, no wonder new comers get pissed off.

Is this site about the so called experts just taking the piss out of everyone else ?
I mean thank you for taking the time to reply but there's no need to get so riled up now is there? :lol:

Personally I'm here to either help others learn, or learn something myself.

Now I don't play IR but I presumed that between BFs cross-matching, and peoples automation, the book will generally be kept to 100% on average, are you saying that two people backing at the same time in the final furlong at, say, 1.40 is what gets you matched (before book is reactively balanced)? Because in theory if 6 runners were even 100 yards out their prices should, key word should, all be above 2.0 (making attempting DOBing on multiple runners significantly not worth)

I understand there can be discrepancies between theory and what actually happens, so all I'd like to know is why you think it's worth it when in theory it wouldn't be?

I've just thought of a nice lil phrase: Can't explain? Can't sustain.
Why do people keep saying the Book% on either side is kept to 100%.

Its not, track the Back Book% / Lay Book% In-Running, it will spike up and down from 100% to 150% on the Back side (sometimes below 100%) and 70% to 100% (sometimes above 100%) on the Lay side.

If they were both stuck at 100% on both sides before or In-Running then the market makers wouldn't make any money. If this theory is true then how come I am able to DOB on more than 1 selection in short furlong races, who is taking/matching my money, someone from the X FILES ?
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SeaHorseRacing
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BetScalper wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 11:43 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 11:10 pm
One of them yes, but definitely not if there's more. Competition for pace isn't what you want if you're dobbing. Seems a chore cross checking that list, patternform or traderbot do that for you.
And what's wrong with dobbing more than 1 in the same race ? I had 2 today in a 7f handicap.
I was looking at this and their definetely is an edge d.obing two in the same race. Especially if you opinion is based on pace alone.

I will investigate more when I get a chance but certainly interesting. Doesnt look good with a short priced favourite aswell.

Ive also notice how little unknown jockey or trainers dont d.o.b.

Guess the inrunning clan always have their eyes on the names. I suppose if you looked at a race card without evening noticing the jockeys or trainers, if you had all unknown jockeys and trainers, but one dettori and gosden runner your brain will automatically draw your attention to them. Also think in running your less likely the need to revert to the colours of the jockey in running if you already know who they are.

Think this includes the horses themselves too. For example in the Derby this year Roaring Lion and Saxon warrior are far more likely to do.b than the rest because people know how good they are. All it takes is them to be half way there come 2f out and pretty sure they will d.o.b
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SeaHorseRacing
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If anyone can correlate top ten jockeys who were unplaced who d.o.b compared to the rest I would be gratefull :D

Would expect them to be higher.

Also be interested to see highest OR in the race unplaced who d.o.b compared to the rest.

What about horses who won last time out, who were unplaced, I bet they d.o.b more than they should.

When I have been looking through results you find alot of horses who have been beating only a lenght or less who still dont d.ob and i pretty sure this because of how unknown they are.
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BetScalper
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SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 9:58 am
BetScalper wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 11:43 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri May 25, 2018 11:10 pm
One of them yes, but definitely not if there's more. Competition for pace isn't what you want if you're dobbing. Seems a chore cross checking that list, patternform or traderbot do that for you.
And what's wrong with dobbing more than 1 in the same race ? I had 2 today in a 7f handicap.
I was looking at this and their definetely is an edge d.obing two in the same race. Especially if you opinion is based on pace alone.

I will investigate more when I get a chance but certainly interesting. Doesnt look good with a short priced favourite aswell.

Ive also notice how little unknown jockey or trainers dont d.o.b.

Guess the inrunning clan always have their eyes on the names. I suppose if you looked at a race card without evening noticing the jockeys or trainers, if you had all unknown jockeys and trainers, but one dettori and gosden runner your brain will automatically draw your attention to them. Also think in running your less likely the need to revert to the colours of the jockey in running if you already know who they are.

Think this includes the horses themselves too. For example in the Derby this year Roaring Lion and Saxon warrior are far more likely to do.b than the rest because people know how good they are. All it takes is them to be half way there come 2f out and pretty sure they will d.o.b
+ 1

I have found that very often in Handicap races < 1 mile you can have more than 1 top rated in-running horse. I don't see any problem dobbing them from a liquidity point of view. Usually, if look for them to be priced >= 6, which means they only have to hit 3, so not even in the closing stages and at the front. I avoid races where the favourite is less than 3.

Last week I had 3 dobs in the same race priced at 6.2, 7.6 and 12.

Each race is different and I don't go looking for multiple dobs but if the consensus is there is more than 1 top rated in-running in the race, then why not!
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BetScalper
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Have a look at the 2.00pm 7f handicap race at York today.

There are 3 top rated in-running horses priced at 9.6, 10.5 and 18.5 with the favourite priced at 4.5

This one looks to be very competitive.
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ShaunWhite
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Nobody is saying 2 or more can't dob, I certainly didn't. All I was saying is that multiple front runners dob less frequently than single front runners. That's not a opinion it's a fact.

Those horses listed might well dob >50% of the time, but personally I just prefer to focus on those with a higher chance than that and I'm looking for early pace horses rather than last furlong contenders. That's why I'd avoid sprints too, an ify break from the stalls and it's all over (mind you that depends on if you place the back bet before or after the start).

I really can't see why you think anyone is taking the piss. What's wrong with taking your info and refining it further?
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