ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:22 pm
Atho55 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:16 pm
It`s as simple as that and it`s worked today (I believe), yesterday and the day before so why worry what might happen next year.
Worrying what might happen next minute/day/month/year is the game I'm in. But it's differences of opinion that makes a market so the fact I disagree is no great surprise.
When I see a stat that stands out, be it a rank or a course or a footy team on a streak, my first instinct isn't to follow it, it's the opposite, I want to oppose it. But that's because of my faith in mean reversion..... Unless there's a reason for that not to happen.
It comes down to are you a person who thinks 'this will never end' or a person who thinks "this can never last". Life experience colours that I guess but if you posted a stat that says back X because it won for 10 days straight, I'll be laying it. And so a market is formed.
As someone, for a long while, spotted trends thinking they could be a new strategy/method only for it to be dashed after doing some simple research on the Adrian Massey site, I can see the sense in what you say. (I do still like to read about stuff that examines the unpredictability of horse racing)
Although only a small sample presented, the range of selections do have a pattern with the odds-ranking and the number of runners.
eg; 4/5/6/7/8th ranked within races of runners of 9 to 18.
This can become a starting point for dutch backing then trading before the off. Laying the 1st/2nd fav's...etc... or as given in the examples, level staking.
It's good to see a different approach, maybe a little sporadic. but it does get the creative juices flowing...