Cheltenham 2016

The sport of kings.
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PeterLe
Posts: 3239
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:34 pm

I was just looking through some of the results from last year and thought Id share this (as I know a few people are running the "Lay the first to trade under 2" bot recently created by Dallas.
Data taken from Betfair Results (Timeform)
Of the 27(?) races, only 3 races had three runners that traded under 2 (NB: Empahsis on UNDER, many traded at 2).
There were 6 races that had two that traded under 2 *ie you would have broke even or thereabouts).
18 races where only the winner traded under 2 (thats high)
2 low losers at 1.05 and 1.07, Highest winner 240 in play

Maybe there is an automated strategy to trade back the first horse to trade under 1.98 (backing at 1.01 to make sure you get matched and maybe fire a lay bet in at 1.1 for eg to hedge..)

Just a though; but good luck eitherway!
Regards
Peter
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Euler
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Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:39 pm

I was looking at data last night and it seems that 3 or under is the magic number at Cheltenham. Not many at 2 or under, it seems the market is more certain at Cheltenham than other courses.

PeterLe
Posts: 3239
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:47 pm

Yep, I just thought that if anyone was using that particular BOT, it may save them a few quid.

Even in my Auto heyday; Chel never really lived up to expectations, perhaps the quality of the horses/jockeys etc..

If I get chance Ill have a look at 2014 if I can get the data
regards
Peter

icarus121
Posts: 253
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:07 pm

Thu Mar 10, 2016 5:24 pm

Very nice heads up Gents.Thanks

Dublin_Flyer
Posts: 329
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

Sat Mar 12, 2016 4:02 am

Haven't been active much at all lately, but best of luck to all the forumites for Cheltenham. May your backs all win, your lays all not win, and your trades all be the greenest of green!

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megarain
Posts: 435
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Sat Mar 12, 2016 9:26 am

Yeah, thx for the info.

I will be in the Betdaq box, on Day 1 .. if anyone going.

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Euler
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Sat Mar 12, 2016 10:02 am

I was invited but I'll still be behind my trading screen this year. I'm condemned to attending duff racing for hospitality still :)

Please tell Betdaq how great our free Betdaq software is and how they need to provide us with much more funding to upgrade it!

LinusP
Posts: 1139
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Sat Mar 12, 2016 10:30 am

Here is the data graphed from 09-15, I remember 2013 being good.

https://public.tableau.com/views/Chelte ... showTabs=y

hgodden
Posts: 1759
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:13 pm

Sat Mar 12, 2016 10:43 am

That's very interesting research, I'd imagine there's a decent chance those sort of findings would be replicated at other big meetings / races.

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Euler
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Sat Mar 12, 2016 11:00 am

Good stuff.

I stuck up a video on what the Cheltenham markets tend to look like from a pre-off trading perspective :-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrXumEhY_ZI

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